Resource constraints frequently complicate multi-agent planning problems. Existing algorithms for resource-constrained, multi-agent planning problems rely on the assumption that the constraints are deterministic. However, frequently resource constraints are themselves subject to uncertainty from external influences. Uncertainty about constraints is especially challenging when agents must execute in an environment where communication is unreliable, making on-line coordination difficult. In those cases, it is a significant challenge to find coordinated allocations at plan time depending on availability at run time. To address these limitations, we propose to extend algorithms for constrained multi-agent planning problems to handle stochastic resource constraints. We show how to factorize resource limit uncertainty and use this to develop novel algorithms to plan policies for stochastic constraints. We evaluate the algorithms on a search-and-rescue problem and on a power-constrained planning domain where the resource constraints are decided by nature. We show that plans taking into account all potential realizations of the constraint obtain significantly better utility than planning for the expectation, while causing fewer constraint violations.

Multi-agent planning problems with constraints on global resource consumption occur in several domains. Existing algorithms for solving Multi-agent Markov Decision Processes can compute policies that meet a resource constraint in expectation, but these policies provide no guarantees on the probability that a resource constraint violation will occur. We derive a method to bound constraint violation probabilities using Hoeffding's inequality. This method is applied to two existing approaches for computing policies satisfying constraints: the Constrained MDP framework and a Column Generation approach. We also introduce an algorithm to adaptively relax the bound up to a given maximum violation tolerance. Experiments on a hard toy problem show that the resulting policies outperform static optimal resource allocations to an arbitrary level. By testing the algorithms on more realistic planning domains from the literature, we demonstrate that the adaptive bound is able to efficiently trade off violation probability with expected value, outperforming state-of-the-art planners.

Renewable power sources such as wind and solar are inflexible in their energy production, which requires demand to rapidly follow supply in order to maintain energy balance. Promising controllable demands are air-conditioners and heat pumps which use electric energy to maintain a temperature at a setpoint. Such Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCLs) have been shown to be able to follow a power curve using reactive control. In this paper we investigate the use of planning under uncertainty to pro-actively control an aggregation of TCLs to overcome temporary grid imbalance. We present a formal definition of the planning problem under consideration, which we model using the Multi-Agent Markov Decision Process (MMDP) framework. Since we are dealing with hundreds of agents, solving the resulting MMDPs directly is intractable. Instead, we propose to decompose the problem by decoupling the interactions through arbitrage. Decomposition of the problem means relaxing the joint power consumption constraint, which means that joining the plans together can cause overconsumption. Arbitrage acts as a conflict resolution mechanism during policy execution, using the future expected value of policies to determine which TCLs should receive the available energy. We experimentally compare several methods to plan with arbitrage, and conclude that a best response-like mechanism is a scalable approach that returns near-optimal solutions.