Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, we collected ~179 million power outage records at 15-minute intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15% of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties, counties with interconnected grids, and states with high solar generation exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

High-resolution flood probability maps are essential for addressing the limitations of existing flood risk assessment approaches but are often limited by the availability of historical event data. Also, producing simulated data needed for creating probabilistic flood maps using physics-based models involves significant computation and time effort inhibiting the feasibility. To address this gap, this study introduces Flood-Precip GAN (Flood-Precipitation Generative Adversarial Network), a novel methodology that leverages generative machine learning to simulate large-scale synthetic inundation data to produce probabilistic flood maps. With a focus on Harris County, Texas, Flood-Precip GAN begins with training a cell-wise depth estimator using a limited number of physics-based model-generated precipitation-flood events. This model, which emphasizes precipitation-based features, outperforms universal models. Subsequently, a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) with constraints is employed to conditionally generate synthetic precipitation records. Strategic thresholds are established to filter these records, ensuring close alignment with true precipitation patterns. For each cell, synthetic events are smoothed using a K-nearest neighbors algorithm and processed through the depth estimator to derive synthetic depth distributions. By iterating this procedure and after generating 10,000 synthetic precipitation-flood events, we construct flood probability maps in various formats, considering different inundation depths. Validation through similarity and correlation metrics confirms the fidelity of the synthetic depth distributions relative to true data. Flood-Precip GAN provides a scalable solution for generating synthetic flood depth data needed to create high-resolution flood probability maps, significantly enhancing flood preparedness and mitigation efforts.

In the field of crisis/disaster informatics, social media is increasingly being used for improving situational awareness to inform response and relief efforts. Efficient and accurate text classification tools have been a focal area of investigation in crisis informatics. However, current methods mostly rely on single-label text classification models, which fails to capture different insights embedded in dynamic and multifaceted disaster-related social media data. This study introduces a novel approach to disaster text classification by enhancing a pre-trained Large Language Model (LLM) through instruction fine-tuning targeted for multi-label classification of disaster-related tweets. Our methodology involves creating a comprehensive instruction dataset from disaster-related tweets, which is then used to fine-tune an open-source LLM, thereby embedding it with disaster-specific knowledge. This fine-tuned model can classify multiple aspects of disaster-related information simultaneously, such as the type of event, informativeness, and involvement of human aid, significantly improving the utility of social media data for situational awareness in disasters. The results demonstrate that this approach enhances the categorization of critical information from social media posts, thereby facilitating a more effective deployment for situational awareness during emergencies. This research paves the way for more advanced, adaptable, and robust disaster management tools, leveraging the capabilities of LLMs to improve real-time situational awareness and response strategies in disaster scenarios.

Near-real time estimation of damage to buildings and infrastructure, referred to as damage nowcasting in this study, is crucial for empowering emergency responders to make informed decisions regarding evacuation orders and infrastructure repair priorities during disaster response and recovery. Here, we introduce FloodDamageCast, a machine learning (ML) framework tailored for property flood damage nowcasting. The framework leverages heterogeneous data to predict residential flood damage at a resolution of 500 meters by 500 meters within Harris County, Texas, during the 2017 Hurricane Harvey. To deal with data imbalance, FloodDamageCast incorporates a generative adversarial networks-based data augmentation coupled with an efficient machine learning model. The results demonstrate the framework's ability to identify high-damage spatial areas that would be overlooked by baseline models. Insights gleaned from flood damage nowcasting can assist emergency responders to more efficiently identify repair needs, allocate resources, and streamline on-the-ground inspections, thereby saving both time and effort. Keywords: Flood damage nowcasting Data augmentation Generative adversarial network Light gradient-boosting machine Imbalance learning 1 Introduction Flood hazards wreak havoc on urban areas, resulting in both physical destruction and loss of life in densely populated regions. In the United States alone, annual insurance claims have hovered around $1 billion per year over the past four decades [1]. This financial burden is expected to persist and potentially worsen due to the escalating frequency and intensity of flood events resulting from climate change [2, 3]. Rapid damage assessment of flooded areas is essential for swift response and recovery of affected communities. Emergency responders and public officials rely primarily on visual inspection to evaluate flood damage, incurring significantly delaying the recovery process. Expediting the flood damage assessment process is instrumental to accelerating post-disaster recovery efforts and bolstering community resilience against flood hazards, Currently, the main approach for estimating flood damage is based on specifying inundation depths then utilizing historical flood depth damage curves [4, 5]. The applicability of this approach for flood damage nowcasting, however, would be limited due to significant computation effort needed to model inundation depths using hydrological models based on the principles of hydrodynamics [6, 7, 8, 9].

Infrastructure systems play a critical role in providing essential products and services for the functioning of modern society; however, they are vulnerable to disasters and their service disruptions can cause severe societal impacts. To protect infrastructure from disasters and reduce potential impacts, great achievements have been made in modeling interdependent infrastructure systems in past decades. In recent years, scholars have gradually shifted their research focus to understanding and modeling societal impacts of disruptions considering the fact that infrastructure systems are critical because of their role in societal functioning, especially under situations of modern societies. Exploring how infrastructure disruptions impair society to enhance resilient city has become a key field of study. By comprehensively reviewing relevant studies, this paper demonstrated the definition and types of societal impact of infrastructure disruptions, and summarized the modeling approaches into four types: extended infrastructure modeling approaches, empirical approaches, agent-based approaches, and big data-driven approaches. For each approach, this paper organized relevant literature in terms of modeling ideas, advantages, and disadvantages. Furthermore, the four approaches were compared according to several criteria, including the input data, types of societal impact, and application scope. Finally, this paper illustrated the challenges and future research directions in the field.

There is a limitation in the literature of data-driven analyses for the ex-post evaluation of community risk and resilience, particularly using features related to the performance of coupled human-infrastructure systems. To address this gap, in this study we created a machine learning-based method for the ex-post assessment of community risk and resilience and their interplay based on features related to the coupled human-infrastructure systems performance. Utilizing feature groups related to population protective actions, infrastructure/building performance features, and recovery features, we examined the risk and resilience performance of communities in the context of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. These features related to the coupled human-infrastructure systems performance were processed using the K-means clustering method to classify census block groups into four distinct clusters then, based on feature analysis, these clusters were labeled and designated into four quadrants of risk-resilience archetypes. Finally, we analyzed the disparities in risk-resilience status of spatial areas across different clusters as well as different income groups. The findings unveil the risk-resilience status of spatial areas shaped by their coupled human-infrastructure systems performance and their interactions. The results also inform about features that contribute to high resilience in high-risk areas. For example, the results indicate that in high-risk areas, evacuation rates contributed to a greater resilience, while in low-risk areas, preparedness contributed to greater resilience.

The objective of this study is to characterize inequality in infrastructure quality across urban areas. While a growing of body of literature has recognized the importance of characterizing infrastructure inequality in cities and provided quantified metrics to inform urban development plans, the majority of the existing approaches focus primarily on measuring the quantity of infrastructure, assuming that more infrastructure is better. Also, the existing research focuses primarily on index-based approaches in which the status of infrastructure provision in urban areas is determined based on assumed subjective weights. The focus on infrastructure quantity and use of indices obtained from subjective weights has hindered the ability to properly examine infrastructure inequality as it pertains to urban inequality and environmental justice considerations. Recognizing this gap, we propose a machine learning-based approach in which infrastructure features that shape environmental hazard exposure are identified and we use the weights obtained by the model to calculate an infrastructure quality provision for spatial areas of cities and accordingly, quantify the extent of inequality in infrastructure quality. The implementation of the model in five metropolitan areas in the U.S. demonstrates the capability of the proposed approach in characterizing inequality in infrastructure quality and capturing city-specific differences in the weights of infrastructure features. The results also show that areas in which low-income populations reside have lower infrastructure quality provision, suggesting the lower infrastructure quality provision as a determinant of urban disparities. Accordingly, the proposed approach can be effectively used to inform integrated urban design strategies to promote infrastructure equity and environmental justice based on data-driven and machine intelligence-based insights.

Inspired by ideas from health risk assessment, this paper presents a new perspective for flood risk assessment. The proposed perspective focuses on three pillars for examining flood risk: (1) inherent susceptibility, (2) mitigation strategies, and (3) external stressors. These pillars collectively encompass the physical and environmental characteristics of urban areas, the effectiveness of human-intervention measures, and the influence of uncontrollable external factors, offering a fresh point of view for decoding flood risks. For each pillar, we delineate its individual contributions to flood risk and illustrate their interactive and overall impact. The three-pillars model embodies a shift in focus from the quest to precisely model and quantify flood risk to evaluating pathways to high flood risk. The shift in perspective is intended to alleviate the quest for quantifying and predicting flood risk at fine resolutions as a panacea for enhanced flood risk management. The decomposition of flood risk pathways into the three intertwined pillars (i.e., inherent factors, mitigation factors, and external factors) enables evaluation of changes in factors within each pillar enhance and exacerbate flood risk, creating a platform from which to inform plans, decisions, and actions. Building on this foundation, we argue that a flood risk pathway analysis approach, which examines the individual and collective impacts of inherent factors, mitigation strategies, and external stressors, is essential for a nuanced evaluation of flood risk. Accordingly, the proposed perspective could complement the existing frameworks and approaches for flood risk assessment.

There has been significant progress in improving the performance of graph neural networks (GNNs) through enhancements in graph data, model architecture design, and training strategies. For fairness in graphs, recent studies achieve fair representations and predictions through either graph data pre-processing (e.g., node feature masking, and topology rewiring) or fair training strategies (e.g., regularization, adversarial debiasing, and fair contrastive learning). How to achieve fairness in graphs from the model architecture perspective is less explored. More importantly, GNNs exhibit worse fairness performance compared to multilayer perception since their model architecture (i.e., neighbor aggregation) amplifies biases. To this end, we aim to achieve fairness via a new GNN architecture. We propose \textsf{F}air \textsf{M}essage \textsf{P}assing (FMP) designed within a unified optimization framework for GNNs. Notably, FMP \textit{explicitly} renders sensitive attribute usage in \textit{forward propagation} for node classification task using cross-entropy loss without data pre-processing. In FMP, the aggregation is first adopted to utilize neighbors' information and then the bias mitigation step explicitly pushes demographic group node presentation centers together. In this way, FMP scheme can aggregate useful information from neighbors and mitigate bias to achieve better fairness and prediction tradeoff performance. Experiments on node classification tasks demonstrate that the proposed FMP outperforms several baselines in terms of fairness and accuracy on three real-world datasets. The code is available in {\url{https://github.com/zhimengj0326/FMP}}.

Urban flood risk emerges from complex and nonlinear interactions among multiple features related to flood hazard, flood exposure, and social and physical vulnerabilities, along with the complex spatial flood dependence relationships. Existing approaches for characterizing urban flood risk, however, are primarily based on flood plain maps, focusing on a limited number of features, primarily hazard and exposure features, without consideration of feature interactions or the dependence relationships among spatial areas. To address this gap, this study presents an integrated urban flood-risk rating model based on a novel unsupervised graph deep learning model (called FloodRisk-Net). FloodRisk-Net is capable of capturing spatial dependence among areas and complex and nonlinear interactions among flood hazards and urban features for specifying emergent flood risk. Using data from multiple metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States, the model characterizes their flood risk into six distinct city-specific levels. The model is interpretable and enables feature analysis of areas within each flood-risk level, allowing for the identification of the three archetypes shaping the highest flood risk within each MSA. Flood risk is found to be spatially distributed in a hierarchical structure within each MSA, where the core city disproportionately bears the highest flood risk. Multiple cities are found to have high overall flood-risk levels and low spatial inequality, indicating limited options for balancing urban development and flood-risk reduction. Relevant flood-risk reduction strategies are discussed considering ways that the highest flood risk and uneven spatial distribution of flood risk are formed.