Decomposing hard problems into subproblems often makes them easier and more efficient to solve. With large language models (LLMs) crossing critical reliability thresholds for a growing slate of capabilities, there is an increasing effort to decompose systems into sets of LLM-based agents, each of whom can be delegated sub-tasks. However, this decomposition (even when automated) is often intuitive, e.g., based on how a human might assign roles to members of a human team. How close are these role decompositions to optimal? This position paper argues that asymptotic analysis with LLM primitives is needed to reason about the efficiency of such decomposed systems, and that insights from such analysis will unlock opportunities for scaling them. By treating the LLM forward pass as the atomic unit of computational cost, one can separate out the (often opaque) inner workings of a particular LLM from the inherent efficiency of how a set of LLMs are orchestrated to solve hard problems. In other words, if we want to scale the deployment of LLMs to the limit, instead of anthropomorphizing LLMs, asymptotic analysis with LLM primitives should be used to reason about and develop more powerful decompositions of large problems into LLM agents.

This paper claims that machine learning (ML) largely overlooks an important facet of general intelligence: robustness to a qualitatively unknown future in an open world. Such robustness relates to Knightian uncertainty (KU) in economics, i.e. uncertainty that cannot be quantified, which is excluded from consideration in ML's key formalisms. This paper aims to identify this blind spot, argue its importance, and catalyze research into addressing it, which we believe is necessary to create truly robust open-world AI. To help illuminate the blind spot, we contrast one area of ML, reinforcement learning (RL), with the process of biological evolution. Despite staggering ongoing progress, RL still struggles in open-world situations, often failing under unforeseen situations. For example, the idea of zero-shot transferring a self-driving car policy trained only in the US to the UK currently seems exceedingly ambitious. In dramatic contrast, biological evolution routinely produces agents that thrive within an open world, sometimes even to situations that are remarkably out-of-distribution (e.g. invasive species; or humans, who do undertake such zero-shot international driving). Interestingly, evolution achieves such robustness without explicit theory, formalisms, or mathematical gradients. We explore the assumptions underlying RL's typical formalisms, showing how they limit RL's engagement with the unknown unknowns characteristic of an ever-changing complex world. Further, we identify mechanisms through which evolutionary processes foster robustness to novel and unpredictable challenges, and discuss potential pathways to algorithmically embody them. The conclusion is that the intriguing remaining fragility of ML may result from blind spots in its formalisms, and that significant gains may result from direct confrontation with the challenge of KU.

Synthetic data generation with Large Language Models is a promising paradigm for augmenting natural data over a nearly infinite range of tasks. Given this variety, direct comparisons among synthetic data generation algorithms are scarce, making it difficult to understand where improvement comes from and what bottlenecks exist. We propose to evaluate algorithms via the makeup of synthetic data generated by each algorithm in terms of data quality, diversity, and complexity. We choose these three characteristics for their significance in open-ended processes and the impact each has on the capabilities of downstream models. We find quality to be essential for in-distribution model generalization, diversity to be essential for out-of-distribution generalization, and complexity to be beneficial for both. Further, we emphasize the existence of Quality-Diversity trade-offs in training data and the downstream effects on model performance. We then examine the effect of various components in the synthetic data pipeline on each data characteristic. This examination allows us to taxonomize and compare synthetic data generation algorithms through the components they utilize and the resulting effects on data QDC composition. This analysis extends into a discussion on the importance of balancing QDC in synthetic data for efficient reinforcement learning and self-improvement algorithms. Analogous to the QD trade-offs in training data, often there exist trade-offs between model output quality and output diversity which impact the composition of synthetic data. We observe that many models are currently evaluated and optimized only for output quality, thereby limiting output diversity and the potential for self-improvement. We argue that balancing these trade-offs is essential to the development of future self-improvement algorithms and highlight a number of works making progress in this direction.

Solving societal problems on a global scale requires the collection and processing of ideas and methods from diverse sets of international experts. As the number and diversity of human experts increase, so does the likelihood that elements in this collective knowledge can be combined and refined to discover novel and better solutions. However, it is difficult to identify, combine, and refine complementary information in an increasingly large and diverse knowledge base. This paper argues that artificial intelligence (AI) can play a crucial role in this process. An evolutionary AI framework, termed RHEA, fills this role by distilling knowledge from diverse models created by human experts into equivalent neural networks, which are then recombined and refined in a population-based search. The framework was implemented in a formal synthetic domain, demonstrating that it is transparent and systematic. It was then applied to the results of the XPRIZE Pandemic Response Challenge, in which over 100 teams of experts across 23 countries submitted models based on diverse methodologies to predict COVID-19 cases and suggest non-pharmaceutical intervention policies for 235 nations, states, and regions across the globe. Building upon this expert knowledge, by recombining and refining the 169 resulting policy suggestion models, RHEA discovered a broader and more effective set of policies than either AI or human experts alone, as evaluated based on real-world data. The results thus suggest that AI can play a crucial role in realizing the potential of human expertise in global problem-solving.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have taken the field of AI by storm, but their adoption in the field of Artificial Life (ALife) has been, so far, relatively reserved. In this work we investigate the potential synergies between LLMs and ALife, drawing on a large body of research in the two fields. We explore the potential of LLMs as tools for ALife research, for example, as operators for evolutionary computation or the generation of open-ended environments. Reciprocally, principles of ALife, such as self-organization, collective intelligence and evolvability can provide an opportunity for shaping the development and functionalities of LLMs, leading to more adaptive and responsive models. By investigating this dynamic interplay, the paper aims to inspire innovative crossover approaches for both ALife and LLM research. Along the way, we examine the extent to which LLMs appear to increasingly exhibit properties such as emergence or collective intelligence, expanding beyond their original goal of generating text, and potentially redefining our perception of lifelike intelligence in artificial systems.

How areas of land are allocated for different uses, such as forests, urban, and agriculture, has a large effect on carbon balance, and therefore climate change. Based on available historical data on changes in land use and a simulation of carbon emissions/absorption, a surrogate model can be learned that makes it possible to evaluate the different options available to decision-makers efficiently. An evolutionary search process can then be used to discover effective land-use policies for specific locations. Such a system was built on the Project Resilience platform and evaluated with the Land-Use Harmonization dataset and the BLUE simulator. It generates Pareto fronts that trade off carbon impact and amount of change customized to different locations, thus providing a potentially useful tool for land-use planning.

This paper frames a general prediction system as an observer traveling around a continuous space, measuring values at some locations, and predicting them at others. The observer is completely agnostic about any particular task being solved; it cares only about measurement locations and their values. This perspective leads to a machine learning framework in which seemingly unrelated tasks can be solved by a single model, by embedding their input and output variables into a shared space. An implementation of the framework is developed in which these variable embeddings are learned jointly with internal model parameters. In experiments, the approach is shown to (1) recover intuitive locations of variables in space and time, (2) exploit regularities across related datasets with completely disjoint input and output spaces, and (3) exploit regularities across seemingly unrelated tasks, outperforming task-specific single-task models and multi-task learning alternatives. The results suggest that even seemingly unrelated tasks may originate from similar underlying processes, a fact that the traveling observer model can use to make better predictions.

Several models have been developed to predict how the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, and how it could be contained with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing restrictions and school and business closures. This paper demonstrates how evolutionary AI could be used to facilitate the next step, i.e. determining most effective intervention strategies automatically. Through evolutionary surrogate-assisted prescription (ESP), it is possible to generate a large number of candidate strategies and evaluate them with predictive models. In principle, strategies can be customized for different countries and locales, and balance the need to contain the pandemic and the need to minimize their economic impact. While still limited by available data, early experiments suggest that workplace and school restrictions are the most important and need to be designed carefully. It also demonstrates that results of lifting restrictions can be unreliable, and suggests creative ways in which restrictions can be implemented softly, e.g. by alternating them over time. As more data becomes available, the approach can be increasingly useful in dealing with COVID-19 as well as possible future pandemics.

Neural Networks (NNs) have been extensively used for a wide spectrum of real-world regression tasks, where the goal is to predict a numerical outcome such as revenue, effectiveness, or a quantitative result. In many such tasks, the point prediction is not enough, but also the uncertainty (i.e. risk, or confidence) of that prediction must be estimated. Standard NNs, which are most often used in such tasks, do not provide any such information. Existing approaches try to solve this issue by combining Bayesian models with NNs, but these models are hard to implement, more expensive to train, and usually do not perform as well as standard NNs. In this paper, a new framework called RIO is developed that makes it possible to estimate uncertainty in any pretrained standard NN. RIO models prediction residuals using Gaussian Process with a composite input/output kernel. The residual prediction and I/O kernel are theoretically motivated and the framework is evaluated in twelve real-world datasets. It is found to provide reliable estimates of the uncertainty, reduce the error of the point predictions, and scale well to large datasets. Given that RIO can be applied to any standard NN without modifications to model architecture or training pipeline, it provides an important ingredient in building real-world applications of NNs.

As deep learning applications continue to become more diverse, an interesting question arises: Can general problem solving arise from jointly learning several such diverse tasks? To approach this question, deep multi-task learning is extended in this paper to the setting where there is no obvious overlap between task architectures. The idea is that any set of (architecture,task) pairs can be decomposed into a set of potentially related subproblems, whose sharing is optimized by an efficient stochastic algorithm. The approach is first validated in a classic synthetic multi-task learning benchmark, and then applied to sharing across disparate architectures for vision, NLP, and genomics tasks. It discovers regularities across these domains, encodes them into sharable modules, and combines these modules systematically to improve performance in the individual tasks. The results confirm that sharing learned functionality across diverse domains and architectures is indeed beneficial, thus establishing a key ingredient for general problem solving in the future.