This study proposes a hybrid model based on Transformers, named MSCMHMST, aimed at addressing key challenges in traffic flow prediction. Traditional single-method approaches show limitations in traffic prediction tasks, whereas hybrid methods, by integrating the strengths of different models, can provide more accurate and robust predictions. The MSCMHMST model introduces a multi-head, multi-scale attention mechanism, allowing the model to parallel process different parts of the data and learn its intrinsic representations from multiple perspectives, thereby enhancing the model's ability to handle complex situations. This mechanism enables the model to capture features at various scales effectively, understanding both short-term changes and long-term trends. Verified through experiments on the PeMS04/08 dataset with specific experimental settings, the MSCMHMST model demonstrated excellent robustness and accuracy in long, medium, and short-term traffic flow predictions. The results indicate that this model has significant potential, offering a new and effective solution for the field of traffic flow prediction.

The rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) and generative visual analytics systems has transformed data-driven insights, yet significant challenges persist in accurately interpreting users' analytical and interaction intents. While language inputs offer flexibility, they often lack precision, making the expression of complex intents inefficient, error-prone, and time-intensive. To address these limitations, we investigate the design space of multimodal interactions for generative visual analytics through a literature review and pilot brainstorming sessions. Building on these insights, we introduce a highly extensible workflow that integrates multiple LLM agents for intent inference and visualization generation. We develop InterChat, a generative visual analytics system that combines direct manipulation of visual elements with natural language inputs. This integration enables precise intent communication and supports progressive, visually driven exploratory data analyses. By employing effective prompt engineering, and contextual interaction linking, alongside intuitive visualization and interaction designs, InterChat bridges the gap between user interactions and LLM-driven visualizations, enhancing both interpretability and usability. Extensive evaluations, including two usage scenarios, a user study, and expert feedback, demonstrate the effectiveness of InterChat. Results show significant improvements in the accuracy and efficiency of handling complex visual analytics tasks, highlighting the potential of multimodal interactions to redefine user engagement and analytical depth in generative visual analytics.

Contextual information is vital for accurate trajectory prediction. For instance, the intricate flying behavior of migratory birds hinges on their analysis of environmental cues such as wind direction and air pressure. However, the diverse and dynamic nature of contextual information renders it an arduous task for AI models to comprehend its impact on trajectories and consequently predict them accurately. To address this issue, we propose a ``manager-worker'' framework to unleash the full potential of contextual information and construct CATP model, an implementation of the framework for Context-Aware Trajectory Prediction. The framework comprises a manager model, several worker models, and a tailored training mechanism inspired by competition symbiosis in nature. Taking CATP as an example, each worker needs to compete against others for training data and develop an advantage in predicting specific moving patterns. The manager learns the workers' performance in different contexts and selects the best one in the given context to predict trajectories, enabling CATP as a whole to operate in a symbiotic manner. We conducted two comparative experiments and an ablation study to quantitatively evaluate the proposed framework and CATP model. The results showed that CATP could outperform SOTA models, and the framework could be generalized to different context-aware tasks.

Users in many domains use machine learning (ML) predictions to help them make decisions. Effective ML-based decision-making often requires explanations of ML models and their predictions. While there are many algorithms that explain models, generating explanations in a format that is comprehensible and useful to decision-makers is a nontrivial task that can require extensive development overhead. We developed Pyreal, a highly extensible system with a corresponding Python implementation for generating a variety of interpretable ML explanations. Pyreal converts data and explanations between the feature spaces expected by the model, relevant explanation algorithms, and human users, allowing users to generate interpretable explanations in a low-code manner. Our studies demonstrate that Pyreal generates more useful explanations than existing systems while remaining both easy-to-use and efficient.

Anomaly detection on time series data is increasingly common across various industrial domains that monitor metrics in order to prevent potential accidents and economic losses. However, a scarcity of labeled data and ambiguous definitions of anomalies can complicate these efforts. Recent unsupervised machine learning methods have made remarkable progress in tackling this problem using either single-timestamp predictions or time series reconstructions. While traditionally considered separately, these methods are not mutually exclusive and can offer complementary perspectives on anomaly detection. This paper first highlights the successes and limitations of prediction-based and reconstruction-based methods with visualized time series signals and anomaly scores. We then propose AER (Auto-encoder with Regression), a joint model that combines a vanilla auto-encoder and an LSTM regressor to incorporate the successes and address the limitations of each method. Our model can produce bi-directional predictions while simultaneously reconstructing the original time series by optimizing a joint objective function. Furthermore, we propose several ways of combining the prediction and reconstruction errors through a series of ablation studies. Finally, we compare the performance of the AER architecture against two prediction-based methods and three reconstruction-based methods on 12 well-known univariate time series datasets from NASA, Yahoo, Numenta, and UCR. The results show that AER has the highest averaged F1 score across all datasets (a 23.5% improvement compared to ARIMA) while retaining a runtime similar to its vanilla auto-encoder and regressor components. Our model is available in Orion, an open-source benchmarking tool for time series anomaly detection.

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly applied to Electronic Health Records (EHRs) to solve clinical prediction tasks. Although many ML models perform promisingly, issues with model transparency and interpretability limit their adoption in clinical practice. Directly using existing explainable ML techniques in clinical settings can be challenging. Through literature surveys and collaborations with six clinicians with an average of 17 years of clinical experience, we identified three key challenges, including clinicians' unfamiliarity with ML features, lack of contextual information, and the need for cohort-level evidence. Following an iterative design process, we further designed and developed VBridge, a visual analytics tool that seamlessly incorporates ML explanations into clinicians' decision-making workflow. The system includes a novel hierarchical display of contribution-based feature explanations and enriched interactions that connect the dots between ML features, explanations, and data. We demonstrated the effectiveness of VBridge through two case studies and expert interviews with four clinicians, showing that visually associating model explanations with patients' situational records can help clinicians better interpret and use model predictions when making clinician decisions. We further derived a list of design implications for developing future explainable ML tools to support clinical decision-making.

An estimated 180 papers focusing on deep learning and EHR were published between 2010 and 2018. Despite the common workflow structure appearing in these publications, no trusted and verified software framework exists, forcing researchers to arduously repeat previous work. In this paper, we propose Cardea, an extensible open-source automated machine learning framework encapsulating common prediction problems in the health domain and allows users to build predictive models with their own data. This system relies on two components: Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) -- a standardized data structure for electronic health systems -- and several AUTOML frameworks for automated feature engineering, model selection, and tuning. We augment these components with an adaptive data assembler and comprehensive data- and model- auditing capabilities. We demonstrate our framework via 5 prediction tasks on MIMIC-III and Kaggle datasets, which highlight Cardea's human competitiveness, flexibility in problem definition, extensive feature generation capability, adaptable automatic data assembler, and its usability.

Time series anomalies can offer information relevant to critical situations facing various fields, from finance and aerospace to the IT, security, and medical domains. However, detecting anomalies in time series data is particularly challenging due to the vague definition of anomalies and said data's frequent lack of labels and highly complex temporal correlations. Current state-of-the-art unsupervised machine learning methods for anomaly detection suffer from scalability and portability issues, and may have high false positive rates. In this paper, we propose TadGAN, an unsupervised anomaly detection approach built on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). To capture the temporal correlations of time series distributions, we use LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks as base models for Generators and Critics. TadGAN is trained with cycle consistency loss to allow for effective time-series data reconstruction. We further propose several novel methods to compute reconstruction errors, as well as different approaches to combine reconstruction errors and Critic outputs to compute anomaly scores. To demonstrate the performance and generalizability of our approach, we test several anomaly scoring techniques and report the best-suited one. We compare our approach to 8 baseline anomaly detection methods on 11 datasets from multiple reputable sources such as NASA, Yahoo, Numenta, Amazon, and Twitter. The results show that our approach can effectively detect anomalies and outperform baseline methods in most cases (6 out of 11). Notably, our method has the highest averaged F1 score across all the datasets. Our code is open source and is available as a benchmarking tool.

To relieve the pain of manually selecting machine learning algorithms and tuning hyperparameters, automated machine learning (AutoML) methods have been developed to automatically search for good models. Due to the huge model search space, it is impossible to try all models. Users tend to distrust automatic results and increase the search budget as much as they can, thereby undermining the efficiency of AutoML. To address these issues, we design and implement ATMSeer, an interactive visualization tool that supports users in refining the search space of AutoML and analyzing the results. To guide the design of ATMSeer, we derive a workflow of using AutoML based on interviews with machine learning experts. A multi-granularity visualization is proposed to enable users to monitor the AutoML process, analyze the searched models, and refine the search space in real time. We demonstrate the utility and usability of ATMSeer through two case studies, expert interviews, and a user study with 13 end users.

Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have achieved remarkable success in various fields. However, training an excellent CNN is practically a trial-and-error process that consumes a tremendous amount of time and computer resources. To accelerate the training process and reduce the number of trials, experts need to understand what has occurred in the training process and why the resulting CNN behaves as such. However, current popular training platforms, such as TensorFlow, only provide very little and general information, such as training/validation errors, which is far from enough to serve this purpose. To bridge this gap and help domain experts with their training tasks in a practical environment, we propose a visual analytics system, DeepTracker, to facilitate the exploration of the rich dynamics of CNN training processes and to identify the unusual patterns that are hidden behind the huge amount of training log. Specifically,we combine a hierarchical index mechanism and a set of hierarchical small multiples to help experts explore the entire training log from different levels of detail. We also introduce a novel cube-style visualization to reveal the complex correlations among multiple types of heterogeneous training data including neuron weights, validation images, and training iterations. Three case studies are conducted to demonstrate how DeepTracker provides its users with valuable knowledge in an industry-level CNN training process, namely in our case, training ResNet-50 on the ImageNet dataset. We show that our method can be easily applied to other state-of-the-art "very deep" CNN models.