Model stealing, where a learner tries to recover an unknown model via carefully chosen queries, is a critical problem in machine learning, as it threatens the security of proprietary models and the privacy of data they are trained on. In recent years, there has been particular interest in stealing large language models (LLMs). In this paper, we aim to build a theoretical understanding of stealing language models by studying a simple and mathematically tractable setting. We study model stealing for Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), and more generally low-rank language models. We assume that the learner works in the conditional query model, introduced by Kakade, Krishnamurthy, Mahajan and Zhang. Our main result is an efficient algorithm in the conditional query model, for learning any low-rank distribution. In other words, our algorithm succeeds at stealing any language model whose output distribution is low-rank. This improves upon the previous result by Kakade, Krishnamurthy, Mahajan and Zhang, which also requires the unknown distribution to have high "fidelity", a property that holds only in restricted cases. There are two key insights behind our algorithm: First, we represent the conditional distributions at each timestep by constructing barycentric spanners among a collection of vectors of exponentially large dimension. Second, for sampling from our representation, we iteratively solve a sequence of convex optimization problems that involve projection in relative entropy to prevent compounding of errors over the length of the sequence. This is an interesting example where, at least theoretically, allowing a machine learning model to solve more complex problems at inference time can lead to drastic improvements in its performance.

We initiate the study of Hamiltonian structure learning from real-time evolution: given the ability to apply $e^{-\mathrm{i} Ht}$ for an unknown local Hamiltonian $H = \sum_{a = 1}^m \lambda_a E_a$ on $n$ qubits, the goal is to recover $H$. This problem is already well-studied under the assumption that the interaction terms, $E_a$, are given, and only the interaction strengths, $\lambda_a$, are unknown. But is it possible to learn a local Hamiltonian without prior knowledge of its interaction structure? We present a new, general approach to Hamiltonian learning that not only solves the challenging structure learning variant, but also resolves other open questions in the area, all while achieving the gold standard of Heisenberg-limited scaling. In particular, our algorithm recovers the Hamiltonian to $\varepsilon$ error with an evolution time scaling with $1/\varepsilon$, and has the following appealing properties: (1) it does not need to know the Hamiltonian terms; (2) it works beyond the short-range setting, extending to any Hamiltonian $H$ where the sum of terms interacting with a qubit has bounded norm; (3) it evolves according to $H$ in constant time $t$ increments, thus achieving constant time resolution. To our knowledge, no prior algorithm with Heisenberg-limited scaling existed with even one of these properties. As an application, we can also learn Hamiltonians exhibiting power-law decay up to accuracy $\varepsilon$ with total evolution time beating the standard limit of $1/\varepsilon^2$.

There has been significant interest in understanding how practical constraints on contemporary quantum devices impact the complexity of quantum learning. For the classic question of tomography, recent work tightly characterized the copy complexity for any protocol that can only measure one copy of the unknown state at a time, showing it is polynomially worse than if one can make fully-entangled measurements. While we now have a fairly complete picture of the rates for such tasks in the near-term and fault-tolerant regimes, it remains poorly understood what the landscape in between looks like. In this work, we study tomography in the natural setting where one can make measurements of $t$ copies at a time. For sufficiently small $\epsilon$, we show that for any $t \le d^2$, $\widetilde{\Theta}(\frac{d^3}{\sqrt{t}\epsilon^2})$ copies are necessary and sufficient to learn an unknown $d$-dimensional state $\rho$ to trace distance $\epsilon$. This gives a smooth and optimal interpolation between the known rates for single-copy and fully-entangled measurements. To our knowledge, this is the first smooth entanglement-copy tradeoff known for any quantum learning task, and for tomography, no intermediate point on this curve was known, even at $t = 2$. An important obstacle is that unlike the optimal single-copy protocol, the optimal fully-entangled protocol is inherently biased and thus precludes naive batching approaches. Instead, we devise a novel two-stage procedure that uses Keyl's algorithm to refine a crude estimate for $\rho$ based on single-copy measurements. A key insight is to use Schur-Weyl sampling not to estimate the spectrum of $\rho$, but to estimate the deviation of $\rho$ from the maximally mixed state. When $\rho$ is far from the maximally mixed state, we devise a novel quantum splitting procedure that reduces to the case where $\rho$ is close to maximally mixed.

We study the problem of learning a local quantum Hamiltonian $H$ given copies of its Gibbs state $\rho = e^{-\beta H}/\textrm{tr}(e^{-\beta H})$ at a known inverse temperature $\beta>0$. Anshu, Arunachalam, Kuwahara, and Soleimanifar (arXiv:2004.07266) gave an algorithm to learn a Hamiltonian on $n$ qubits to precision $\epsilon$ with only polynomially many copies of the Gibbs state, but which takes exponential time. Obtaining a computationally efficient algorithm has been a major open problem [Alhambra'22 (arXiv:2204.08349)], [Anshu, Arunachalam'22 (arXiv:2204.08349)], with prior work only resolving this in the limited cases of high temperature [Haah, Kothari, Tang'21 (arXiv:2108.04842)] or commuting terms [Anshu, Arunachalam, Kuwahara, Soleimanifar'21]. We fully resolve this problem, giving a polynomial time algorithm for learning $H$ to precision $\epsilon$ from polynomially many copies of the Gibbs state at any constant $\beta > 0$. Our main technical contribution is a new flat polynomial approximation to the exponential function, and a translation between multi-variate scalar polynomials and nested commutators. This enables us to formulate Hamiltonian learning as a polynomial system. We then show that solving a low-degree sum-of-squares relaxation of this polynomial system suffices to accurately learn the Hamiltonian.

We give a new framework for solving the fundamental problem of low-rank matrix completion, i.e., approximating a rank-$r$ matrix $\mathbf{M} \in \mathbb{R}^{m \times n}$ (where $m \ge n$) from random observations. First, we provide an algorithm which completes $\mathbf{M}$ on $99\%$ of rows and columns under no further assumptions on $\mathbf{M}$ from $\approx mr$ samples and using $\approx mr^2$ time. Then, assuming the row and column spans of $\mathbf{M}$ satisfy additional regularity properties, we show how to boost this partial completion guarantee to a full matrix completion algorithm by aggregating solutions to regression problems involving the observations. In the well-studied setting where $\mathbf{M}$ has incoherent row and column spans, our algorithms complete $\mathbf{M}$ to high precision from $mr^{2+o(1)}$ observations in $mr^{3 + o(1)}$ time (omitting logarithmic factors in problem parameters), improving upon the prior state-of-the-art [JN15] which used $\approx mr^5$ samples and $\approx mr^7$ time. Under an assumption on the row and column spans of $\mathbf{M}$ we introduce (which is satisfied by random subspaces with high probability), our sample complexity improves to an almost information-theoretically optimal $mr^{1 + o(1)}$, and our runtime improves to $mr^{2 + o(1)}$. Our runtimes have the appealing property of matching the best known runtime to verify that a rank-$r$ decomposition $\mathbf{U}\mathbf{V}^\top$ agrees with the sampled observations. We also provide robust variants of our algorithms that, given random observations from $\mathbf{M} + \mathbf{N}$ with $\|\mathbf{N}\|_{F} \le \Delta$, complete $\mathbf{M}$ to Frobenius norm distance $\approx r^{1.5}\Delta$ in the same runtimes as the noiseless setting. Prior noisy matrix completion algorithms [CP10] only guaranteed a distance of $\approx \sqrt{n}\Delta$.

Recently Chen and Poor initiated the study of learning mixtures of linear dynamical systems. While linear dynamical systems already have wide-ranging applications in modeling time-series data, using mixture models can lead to a better fit or even a richer understanding of underlying subpopulations represented in the data. In this work we give a new approach to learning mixtures of linear dynamical systems that is based on tensor decompositions. As a result, our algorithm succeeds without strong separation conditions on the components, and can be used to compete with the Bayes optimal clustering of the trajectories. Moreover our algorithm works in the challenging partially-observed setting. Our starting point is the simple but powerful observation that the classic Ho-Kalman algorithm is a close relative of modern tensor decomposition methods for learning latent variable models. This gives us a playbook for how to extend it to work with more complicated generative models.

We consider the classic question of state tomography: given copies of an unknown quantum state $\rho\in\mathbb{C}^{d\times d}$, output $\widehat{\rho}$ which is close to $\rho$ in some sense, e.g. trace distance or fidelity. When one is allowed to make coherent measurements entangled across all copies, $\Theta(d^2/\epsilon^2)$ copies are necessary and sufficient to get trace distance $\epsilon$. Unfortunately, the protocols achieving this rate incur large quantum memory overheads that preclude implementation on near-term devices. On the other hand, the best known protocol using incoherent (single-copy) measurements uses $O(d^3/\epsilon^2)$ copies, and multiple papers have posed it as an open question to understand whether or not this rate is tight. In this work, we fully resolve this question, by showing that any protocol using incoherent measurements, even if they are chosen adaptively, requires $\Omega(d^3/\epsilon^2)$ copies, matching the best known upper bound. We do so by a new proof technique which directly bounds the ``tilt'' of the posterior distribution after measurements, which yields a surprisingly short proof of our lower bound, and which we believe may be of independent interest. While this implies that adaptivity does not help for tomography with respect to trace distance, we show that it actually does help for tomography with respect to infidelity. We give an adaptive algorithm that outputs a state which is $\gamma$-close in infidelity to $\rho$ using only $\tilde{O}(d^3/\gamma)$ copies, which is optimal for incoherent measurements. In contrast, it is known that any nonadaptive algorithm requires $\Omega(d^3/\gamma^2)$ copies. While it is folklore that in $2$ dimensions, one can achieve a scaling of $O(1/\gamma)$, to the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first to achieve the optimal rate in all dimensions.

Linear dynamical systems are the foundational statistical model upon which control theory is built. Both the celebrated Kalman filter and the linear quadratic regulator require knowledge of the system dynamics to provide analytic guarantees. Naturally, learning the dynamics of a linear dynamical system from linear measurements has been intensively studied since Rudolph Kalman's pioneering work in the 1960's. Towards these ends, we provide the first polynomial time algorithm for learning a linear dynamical system from a polynomial length trajectory up to polynomial error in the system parameters under essentially minimal assumptions: observability, controllability, and marginal stability. Our algorithm is built on a method of moments estimator to directly estimate Markov parameters from which the dynamics can be extracted. Furthermore, we provide statistical lower bounds when our observability and controllability assumptions are violated.

Tensor completion is a natural higher-order generalization of matrix completion where the goal is to recover a low-rank tensor from sparse observations of its entries. Existing algorithms are either heuristic without provable guarantees, based on solving large semidefinite programs which are impractical to run, or make strong assumptions such as requiring the factors to be nearly orthogonal. In this paper we introduce a new variant of alternating minimization, which in turn is inspired by understanding how the progress measures that guide convergence of alternating minimization in the matrix setting need to be adapted to the tensor setting. We show strong provable guarantees, including showing that our algorithm converges linearly to the true tensors even when the factors are highly correlated and can be implemented in nearly linear time. Moreover our algorithm is also highly practical and we show that we can complete third order tensors with a thousand dimensions from observing a tiny fraction of its entries. In contrast, and somewhat surprisingly, we show that the standard version of alternating minimization, without our new twist, can converge at a drastically slower rate in practice.

In this work we study the problem of robustly learning a Mallows model. We give an algorithm that can accurately estimate the central ranking even when a constant fraction of its samples are arbitrarily corrupted. Moreover our robustness guarantees are dimension-independent in the sense that our overall accuracy does not depend on the number of alternatives being ranked. Our work can be thought of as a natural infusion of perspectives from algorithmic robust statistics into one of the central inference problems in voting and information-aggregation. Specifically, our voting rule is efficiently computable and its outcome cannot be changed by much by a large group of colluding voters.