Plausibility Estimation (PE) plays a crucial role for enabling language models to objectively comprehend the real world. While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in PE tasks but sometimes produce trivial commonsense errors due to the complexity of commonsense knowledge. They lack two key traits of an ideal PE model: a) Language-explainable: relying on critical word segments for decisions, and b) Commonsense-sensitive: detecting subtle linguistic variations in commonsense. To address these issues, we propose a novel model-agnostic method, referred to as Commonsense Counterfactual Samples Generating (CCSG). By training PE models with CCSG, we encourage them to focus on critical words, thereby enhancing both their language-explainable and commonsense-sensitive capabilities. Specifically, CCSG generates counterfactual samples by strategically replacing key words and introducing low-level dropout within sentences. These counterfactual samples are then incorporated into a sentence-level contrastive training framework to further enhance the model's learning process. Experimental results across nine diverse datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CCSG in addressing commonsense reasoning challenges, with our CCSG method showing 3.07% improvement against the SOTA methods.

Latent confounders are a fundamental challenge for inferring causal effects from observational data. The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a practical way to address this challenge. Existing IV based estimators need a known IV or other strong assumptions, such as the existence of two or more IVs in the system, which limits the application of the IV approach. In this paper, we consider a relaxed requirement, which assumes there is an IV proxy in the system without knowing which variable is the proxy. We propose a Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) based disentangled representation learning method to learn an IV representation from a dataset with latent confounders and then utilise the IV representation to obtain an unbiased estimation of the causal effect from the data. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data have demonstrated that the proposed algorithm outperforms the existing IV based estimators and VAE-based estimators.

Querying causal effects from time-series data is important across various fields, including healthcare, economics, climate science, and epidemiology. However, this task becomes complex in the existence of time-varying latent confounders, which affect both treatment and outcome variables over time and can introduce bias in causal effect estimation. Traditional instrumental variable (IV) methods are limited in addressing such complexities due to the need for predefined IVs or strong assumptions that do not hold in dynamic settings. To tackle these issues, we develop a novel Time-varying Conditional Instrumental Variables (CIV) for Debiasing causal effect estimation, referred to as TDCIV. TDCIV leverages Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Variational Autoencoder (VAE) models to disentangle and learn the representations of time-varying CIV and its conditioning set from proxy variables without prior knowledge. Under the assumptions of the Markov property and availability of proxy variables, we theoretically establish the validity of these learned representations for addressing the biases from time-varying latent confounders, thus enabling accurate causal effect estimation. Our proposed TDCIV is the first to effectively learn time-varying CIV and its associated conditioning set without relying on domain-specific knowledge.

Intervention intuition is often used in model explanation where the intervention effect of a feature on the outcome is quantified by the difference of a model prediction when the feature value is changed from the current value to the baseline value. Such a model intervention effect of a feature is inherently association. In this paper, we will study the conditions when an intuitive model intervention effect has a causal interpretation, i.e., when it indicates whether a feature is a direct cause of the outcome. This work links the model intervention effect to the causal interpretation of a model. Such an interpretation capability is important since it indicates whether a machine learning model is trustworthy to domain experts. The conditions also reveal the limitations of using a model intervention effect for causal interpretation in an environment with unobserved features. Experiments on semi-synthetic datasets have been conducted to validate theorems and show the potential for using the model intervention effect for model interpretation.

With the widespread use of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for representation learning from network data, the fairness of GNN models has raised great attention lately. Fair GNNs aim to ensure that node representations can be accurately classified, but not easily associated with a specific group. Existing advanced approaches essentially enhance the generalisation of node representation in combination with data augmentation strategy, and do not directly impose constraints on the fairness of GNNs. In this work, we identify that a fundamental reason for the unfairness of GNNs in social network learning is the phenomenon of social homophily, i.e., users in the same group are more inclined to congregate. The message-passing mechanism of GNNs can cause users in the same group to have similar representations due to social homophily, leading model predictions to establish spurious correlations with sensitive attributes. Inspired by this reason, we propose a method called Equity-Aware GNN (EAGNN) towards fair graph representation learning. Specifically, to ensure that model predictions are independent of sensitive attributes while maintaining prediction performance, we introduce constraints for fair representation learning based on three principles: sufficiency, independence, and separation. We theoretically demonstrate that our EAGNN method can effectively achieve group fairness. Extensive experiments on three datasets with varying levels of social homophily illustrate that our EAGNN method achieves the state-of-the-art performance across two fairness metrics and offers competitive effectiveness.

The rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs) creates new opportunities for recommender systems, especially by exploiting the side information (e.g., descriptions and analyses of items) generated by these models. However, aligning this side information with collaborative information from historical interactions poses significant challenges. The inherent biases within LLMs can skew recommendations, resulting in distorted and potentially unfair user experiences. On the other hand, propensity bias causes side information to be aligned in such a way that it often tends to represent all inputs in a low-dimensional subspace, leading to a phenomenon known as dimensional collapse, which severely restricts the recommender system's ability to capture user preferences and behaviours. To address these issues, we introduce a novel framework named Counterfactual LLM Recommendation (CLLMR). Specifically, we propose a spectrum-based side information encoder that implicitly embeds structural information from historical interactions into the side information representation, thereby circumventing the risk of dimension collapse. Furthermore, our CLLMR approach explores the causal relationships inherent in LLM-based recommender systems. By leveraging counterfactual inference, we counteract the biases introduced by LLMs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our CLLMR approach consistently enhances the performance of various recommender models.

As the growing demand for long sequence time-series forecasting in real-world applications, such as electricity consumption planning, the significance of time series forecasting becomes increasingly crucial across various domains. This is highlighted by recent advancements in representation learning within the field. This study introduces a novel multi-view approach for time series forecasting that innovatively integrates trend and seasonal representations with an Independent Component Analysis (ICA)-based representation. Recognizing the limitations of existing methods in representing complex and high-dimensional time series data, this research addresses the challenge by combining TS (trend and seasonality) and ICA (independent components) perspectives. This approach offers a holistic understanding of time series data, going beyond traditional models that often miss nuanced, nonlinear relationships. The efficacy of TSI model is demonstrated through comprehensive testing on various benchmark datasets, where it shows superior performance over current state-of-the-art models, particularly in multivariate forecasting. This method not only enhances the accuracy of forecasting but also contributes significantly to the field by providing a more in-depth understanding of time series data. The research which uses ICA for a view lays the groundwork for further exploration and methodological advancements in time series forecasting, opening new avenues for research and practical applications.

Much research has been devoted to the problem of learning fair representations; however, they do not explicitly the relationship between latent representations. In many real-world applications, there may be causal relationships between latent representations. Furthermore, most fair representation learning methods focus on group-level fairness and are based on correlations, ignoring the causal relationships underlying the data. In this work, we theoretically demonstrate that using the structured representations enable downstream predictive models to achieve counterfactual fairness, and then we propose the Counterfactual Fairness Variational AutoEncoder (CF-VAE) to obtain structured representations with respect to domain knowledge. The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves better fairness and accuracy performance than the benchmark fairness methods.

Estimating direct and indirect causal effects from observational data is crucial to understanding the causal mechanisms and predicting the behaviour under different interventions. Causal mediation analysis is a method that is often used to reveal direct and indirect effects. Deep learning shows promise in mediation analysis, but the current methods only assume latent confounders that affect treatment, mediator and outcome simultaneously, and fail to identify different types of latent confounders (e.g., confounders that only affect the mediator or outcome). Furthermore, current methods are based on the sequential ignorability assumption, which is not feasible for dealing with multiple types of latent confounders. This work aims to circumvent the sequential ignorability assumption and applies the piecemeal deconfounding assumption as an alternative. We propose the Disentangled Mediation Analysis Variational AutoEncoder (DMAVAE), which disentangles the representations of latent confounders into three types to accurately estimate the natural direct effect, natural indirect effect and total effect. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods and has strong generalisation ability. We further apply the method to a real-world dataset to show its potential application.

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) is a powerful tool for addressing the latent confounders issue, but the traditional IV technique cannot deal with latent time-dependent confounders in longitudinal studies. In this work, we propose a novel Time-dependent Instrumental Factor Model (TIFM) for time-varying causal effect estimation from data with latent time-dependent confounders. At each time-step, the proposed TIFM method employs the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture to infer latent IV, and then uses the inferred latent IV factor for addressing the confounding bias caused by the latent time-dependent confounders. We provide a theoretical analysis for the proposed TIFM method regarding causal effect estimation in longitudinal data. Extensive evaluation with synthetic datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of TIFM in addressing causal effect estimation over time. We further apply TIFM to a climate dataset to showcase the potential of the proposed method in tackling real-world problems.