Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differential equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the development and application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially when closed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world problems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a new sparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency, as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic or near periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate one generative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generated from Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses these priors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings and show that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We also apply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are modelled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs. Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can reduce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of the nearest rival approach which is the resonator model.

The current state-of-the-art algorithm for optimal coalition structure generation is IDP-IP — an algorithm that combines IDP (a dynamic programming algorithm due to Rahwan and Jennings, AAAI'08) with IP (a tree-search algorithm due to Rahwan et al., JAIR'09). In this paper we analyse IDP-IP, highlight its limitations, and then develop a new approach for combining IDP with IP that overcomes these limitations.

Smart meters are intended to allow suppliers electricity network technologies, collectively called to access detailed energy consumption data and, more the smart grid (US Department Of Energy 2003; Galvin importantly, provide network information, such as real-time and Yeager 2008; UK Department of Energy and Climate pricing (RTP) signals, to consumers in an attempt to better Change 2009). A major component of this future vision is control or reduce demand when electricity is expensive that of energy storage. In particular, there is potential seen or carbon intensive on the grid (Hammerstrom et al. 2008; in the widespread adoption of small scale consumer storage Smith 2010). Accordingly, we envisage that micro-storage devices (i.e., micro-storage), which would allow consumers will be controlled by autonomous software agents that will to store electricity when demand is low, in order for react to RTP signals to minimise their owner's costs (i.e., it to be used during peak loads (Bathurst and Strbac 2003; they are self-interested). In this vein, we note our recent Ramchurn et al. 2011a; Vytelingum et al. 2010). This technology work (Vytelingum et al. 2010) in which we showed that, has the added advantage that it requires no significant when acting purely selfishly, large numbers of micro-storage change in how home appliances are used, and thus allows agents can cause instability in the aggregate demand profile.

Our approach Multi-agent task allocation is an important and challenging yields significant reductions in both run-time and communication, problem, which involves deciding how to assign a set thereby increasing real-world applicability. of agents to a set of tasks, both of which may change over In more detail, in this paper we advance the state-ofthe-art time (i.e., it is a dynamic environment). Moreover, it is often in the following ways: first, we present a novel, necessary for heterogeneous agents to form teams (known as online domain pruning algorithm specifically tailored to coalitions) to complete certain tasks in the environment. In dynamic task allocation environments to reduce the number coalitions, agents can often complete tasks more efficiently of potential solutions that need to be considered.