We propose a method for improving the performance of any network designed to predict the next value of a time series. Vve advocate analyzing the deviations of the network's predictions from the data in the training set. This can be carried out by a secondary network trained on the time series of these residuals. The combined system of the two networks is viewed as the new predictor. We demonstrate the simplicity and success of this method, by applying it to the sunspots data. The small corrections of the secondary network can be regarded as resulting from a Taylor expansion of a complex network which includes the combined system.

In many cases the crosscorrelations betweenthe activities of cortical neurons are approximately symmetric about zero time delay. These have been taken as an indication of the presence of "functional connectivity" between the correlated neurons (Fetz, Toyama and Smith 1991, Abeles 1991). However, a quantitative comparison between the observed cross-correlations and those expected to exist between neurons that are part of a large assembly of interacting population has been lacking. Most of the theoretical studies of recurrent neural network models consider only time averaged firing rates, which are usually given as solutions of mean-field equations. They do not account for the fluctuations about these averages, the study of which requires going beyond the mean-field approximations. In this work we perform a theoretical study of the fluctuations in the neuronal activities and their correlations, in a large stochastic network of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. Depending on the model parameters, this system can exhibit coherent undamped oscillations. Here we focus on parameter regimes where the system is in a statistically stationary state, which is more appropriate for modeling non oscillatory neuronal activity in cortex. Our results for the magnitudes and the time-dependence of the correlation functions can provide a basis for comparison with physiological data on neuronal correlation functions.

We propose a method for improving the performance of any network designedto predict the next value of a time series. Vve advocate analyzing the deviations of the network's predictions from the data in the training set. This can be carried out by a secondary network trainedon the time series of these residuals. The combined system of the two networks is viewed as the new predictor. We demonstrate the simplicity and success of this method, by applying itto the sunspots data. The small corrections of the secondary network can be regarded as resulting from a Taylor expansion of a complex network which includes the combined system.

In many cases the crosscorrelations between the activities of cortical neurons are approximately symmetric about zero time delay. These have been taken as an indication of the presence of "functional connectivity" between the correlated neurons (Fetz, Toyama and Smith 1991, Abeles 1991). However, a quantitative comparison between the observed cross-correlations and those expected to exist between neurons that are part of a large assembly of interacting population has been lacking. Most of the theoretical studies of recurrent neural network models consider only time averaged firing rates, which are usually given as solutions of mean-field equations. They do not account for the fluctuations about these averages, the study of which requires going beyond the mean-field approximations. In this work we perform a theoretical study of the fluctuations in the neuronal activities and their correlations, in a large stochastic network of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. Depending on the model parameters, this system can exhibit coherent undamped oscillations. Here we focus on parameter regimes where the system is in a statistically stationary state, which is more appropriate for modeling non oscillatory neuronal activity in cortex. Our results for the magnitudes and the time-dependence of the correlation functions can provide a basis for comparison with physiological data on neuronal correlation functions.