Parallel Tempering (PT) is a classical MCMC algorithm designed for leveraging parallel computation to sample efficiently from high-dimensional, multimodal or otherwise complex distributions via annealing. One limitation of the standard formulation of PT is the growth of computational resources required to generate high-quality samples, as measured by effective sample size or round trip rate, for increasingly challenging distributions. To address this issue, we propose the framework: Generalised Parallel Tempering (GePT) which allows for the incorporation of recent advances in modern generative modelling, such as normalising flows and diffusion models, within Parallel Tempering, while maintaining the same theoretical guarantees as MCMC-based methods. For instance, we show that this allows us to utilise diffusion models in a parallelised manner, bypassing the usual computational cost of a large number of steps to generate quality samples. Further, we empirically demonstrate that GePT can improve sample quality and reduce the growth of computational resources required to handle complex distributions over the classical algorithm. Sampling from a complex probability distribution π over a state-space X, whose density π(x) is only known up to a normalising constant, is a fundamental task in modern statistical inference.

Diffusion models generate high-quality synthetic data. They operate by defining a continuous-time forward process which gradually adds Gaussian noise to data until fully corrupted. The corresponding reverse process progressively "denoises" a Gaussian sample into a sample from the data distribution. However, generating high-quality outputs requires many discretization steps to obtain a faithful approximation of the reverse process. This is expensive and has motivated the development of many acceleration methods. We propose to accomplish sample generation by learning the posterior {\em distribution} of clean data samples given their noisy versions, instead of only the mean of this distribution. This allows us to sample from the probability transitions of the reverse process on a coarse time scale, significantly accelerating inference with minimal degradation of the quality of the output. This is accomplished by replacing the standard regression loss used to estimate conditional means with a scoring rule. We validate our method on image and robot trajectory generation, where we consistently outperform standard diffusion models at few discretization steps.

Speculative sampling is a popular technique for accelerating inference in Large Language Models by generating candidate tokens using a fast draft model and accepting or rejecting them based on the target model's distribution. While speculative sampling was previously limited to discrete sequences, we extend it to diffusion models, which generate samples via continuous, vector-valued Markov chains. In this context, the target model is a high-quality but computationally expensive diffusion model. We propose various drafting strategies, including a simple and effective approach that does not require training a draft model and is applicable out of the box to any diffusion model. Our experiments demonstrate significant generation speedup on various diffusion models, halving the number of function evaluations, while generating exact samples from the target model.

The reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) are attracting increasing attention. In this work, we focus on causal reasoning and address the task of establishing causal relationships based on correlation information, a highly challenging problem on which several LLMs have shown poor performance. We introduce a prompting strategy for this problem that breaks the original task into fixed subquestions, with each subquestion corresponding to one step of a formal causal discovery algorithm, the PC algorithm. The proposed prompting strategy, PC-SubQ, guides the LLM to follow these algorithmic steps, by sequentially prompting it with one subquestion at a time, augmenting the next subquestion's prompt with the answer to the previous one(s). We evaluate our approach on an existing causal benchmark, Corr2Cause: our experiments indicate a performance improvement across five LLMs when comparing PC-SubQ to baseline prompting strategies. Results are robust to causal query perturbations, when modifying the variable names or paraphrasing the expressions.

DDMs generate a path of probability distributions interpolating between a reference Gaussian distribution and a data distribution by incrementally injecting noise into the data. To numerically simulate the sampling process, a discretisation schedule from the reference back towards clean data must be chosen. An appropriate discretisation schedule is crucial to obtain high quality samples. However, beyond hand crafted heuristics, a general method for choosing this schedule remains elusive. This paper presents a novel algorithm for adaptively selecting an optimal discretisation schedule with respect to a cost that we derive. Our cost measures the work done by the simulation procedure to transport samples from one point in the diffusion path to the next. Our method does not require hyperparameter tuning and adapts to the dynamics and geometry of the diffusion path. Our algorithm only involves the evaluation of the estimated Stein score, making it scalable to existing pre-trained models at inference time and online during training. We find that our learned schedule recovers performant schedules previously only discovered through manual search and obtains competitive FID scores on image datasets.

An open question in \emph{Imprecise Probabilistic Machine Learning} is how to empirically derive a credal region (i.e., a closed and convex family of probabilities on the output space) from the available data, without any prior knowledge or assumption. In classification problems, credal regions are a tool that is able to provide provable guarantees under realistic assumptions by characterizing the uncertainty about the distribution of the labels. Building on previous work, we show that credal regions can be directly constructed using conformal methods. This allows us to provide a novel extension of classical conformal prediction to problems with ambiguous ground truth, that is, when the exact labels for given inputs are not exactly known. The resulting construction enjoys desirable practical and theoretical properties: (i) conformal coverage guarantees, (ii) smaller prediction sets (compared to classical conformal prediction regions) and (iii) disentanglement of uncertainty sources (epistemic, aleatoric). We empirically verify our findings on both synthetic and real datasets.

Masked (or absorbing) diffusion is actively explored as an alternative to autoregressive models for generative modeling of discrete data. However, existing work in this area has been hindered by unnecessarily complex model formulations and unclear relationships between different perspectives, leading to suboptimal parameterization, training objectives, and ad hoc adjustments to counteract these issues. In this work, we aim to provide a simple and general framework that unlocks the full potential of masked diffusion models. We show that the continuous-time variational objective of masked diffusion models is a simple weighted integral of cross-entropy losses. Our framework also enables training generalized masked diffusion models with state-dependent masking schedules. When evaluated by perplexity, our models trained on OpenWebText surpass prior diffusion language models at GPT-2 scale and demonstrate superior performance on 4 out of 5 zero-shot language modeling tasks. Furthermore, our models vastly outperform previous discrete diffusion models on pixel-level image modeling, achieving 2.78~(CIFAR-10) and 3.42 (ImageNet 64$\times$64) bits per dimension that are comparable or better than autoregressive models of similar sizes.

We introduce RecurrentGemma, an open language model which uses Google's novel Griffin architecture. Griffin combines linear recurrences with local attention to achieve excellent performance on language. It has a fixed-sized state, which reduces memory use and enables efficient inference on long sequences. We provide a pre-trained model with 2B non-embedding parameters, and an instruction tuned variant. Both models achieve comparable performance to Gemma-2B despite being trained on fewer tokens.

We develop a principled procedure for determining when a large language model (LLM) should abstain from responding (e.g., by saying "I don't know") in a general domain, instead of resorting to possibly "hallucinating" a non-sensical or incorrect answer. Building on earlier approaches that use self-consistency as a more reliable measure of model confidence, we propose using the LLM itself to self-evaluate the similarity between each of its sampled responses for a given query. We then further leverage conformal prediction techniques to develop an abstention procedure that benefits from rigorous theoretical guarantees on the hallucination rate (error rate). Experimentally, our resulting conformal abstention method reliably bounds the hallucination rate on various closed-book, open-domain generative question answering datasets, while also maintaining a significantly less conservative abstention rate on a dataset with long responses (Temporal Sequences) compared to baselines using log-probability scores to quantify uncertainty, while achieveing comparable performance on a dataset with short answers (TriviaQA). To evaluate the experiments automatically, one needs to determine if two responses are equivalent given a question. Following standard practice, we use a thresholded similarity function to determine if two responses match, but also provide a method for calibrating the threshold based on conformal prediction, with theoretical guarantees on the accuracy of the match prediction, which might be of independent interest.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have fast inference and scale efficiently on long sequences, but they are difficult to train and hard to scale. We propose Hawk, an RNN with gated linear recurrences, and Griffin, a hybrid model that mixes gated linear recurrences with local attention. Hawk exceeds the reported performance of Mamba on downstream tasks, while Griffin matches the performance of Llama-2 despite being trained on over 6 times fewer tokens. We also show that Griffin can extrapolate on sequences significantly longer than those seen during training. Our models match the hardware efficiency of Transformers during training, and during inference they have lower latency and significantly higher throughput. We scale Griffin up to 14B parameters, and explain how to shard our models for efficient distributed training.