We present a computational technique for modeling the evolution of dynamical systems in a reduced basis, with a focus on the challenging problem of modeling partially-observed partial differential equations (PDEs) on high-dimensional non-uniform grids. We address limitations of previous work on data-driven flow map learning in the sense that we focus on noisy and limited data to move toward data collection scenarios in real-world applications. Leveraging recent work on modeling PDEs in modal and nodal spaces, we present a neural network structure that is suitable for PDE modeling with noisy and limited data available only on a subset of the state variables or computational domain. In particular, spatial grid-point measurements are reduced using a learned linear transformation, after which the dynamics are learned in this reduced basis before being transformed back out to the nodal space. This approach yields a drastically reduced parameterization of the neural network compared with previous flow map models for nodal space learning. This primarily allows for smaller training data sets, but also enables reduced training times.

Flow map learning (FML), in conjunction with deep neural networks (DNNs), has shown promises for data driven modeling of unknown dynamical systems. A remarkable feature of FML is that it is capable of producing accurate predictive models for partially observed systems, even when their exact mathematical models do not exist. In this paper, we present an overview of the FML framework, along with the important computational details for its successful implementation. We also present a set of well defined benchmark problems for learning unknown dynamical systems. All the numerical details of these problems are presented, along with their FML results, to ensure that the problems are accessible for cross-examination and the results are reproducible.

Recent work has focused on data-driven learning of the evolution of unknown systems via deep neural networks (DNNs), with the goal of conducting long time prediction of the evolution of the unknown system. Training a DNN with low generalization error is a particularly important task in this case as error is accumulated over time. Because of the inherent randomness in DNN training, chiefly in stochastic optimization, there is uncertainty in the resulting prediction, and therefore in the generalization error. Hence, the generalization error can be viewed as a random variable with some probability distribution. Well-trained DNNs, particularly those with many hyperparameters, typically result in probability distributions for generalization error with low bias but high variance. High variance causes variability and unpredictably in the results of a trained DNN. This paper presents a computational technique which decreases the variance of the generalization error, thereby improving the reliability of the DNN model to generalize consistently. In the proposed ensemble averaging method, multiple models are independently trained and model predictions are averaged at each time step. A mathematical foundation for the method is presented, including results regarding the distribution of the local truncation error. In addition, three time-dependent differential equation problems are considered as numerical examples, demonstrating the effectiveness of the method to decrease variance of DNN predictions generally.