Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) combine visual and textual data for tasks such as image captioning and visual question answering. Proper uncertainty calibration is crucial, yet challenging, for reliable use in areas like healthcare and autonomous driving. This paper investigates representative MLLMs, focusing on their calibration across various scenarios, including before and after visual fine-tuning, as well as before and after multimodal training of the base LLMs. We observed miscalibration in their performance, and at the same time, no significant differences in calibration across these scenarios. We also highlight how uncertainty differs between text and images and how their integration affects overall uncertainty. To better understand MLLMs' miscalibration and their ability to self-assess uncertainty, we construct the IDK (I don't know) dataset, which is key to evaluating how they handle unknowns. Our findings reveal that MLLMs tend to give answers rather than admit uncertainty, but this self-assessment improves with proper prompt adjustments. Finally, to calibrate MLLMs and enhance model reliability, we propose techniques such as temperature scaling and iterative prompt optimization. Our results provide insights into improving MLLMs for effective and responsible deployment in multimodal applications. Code and IDK dataset: https://github.com/hfutml/Calibration-MLLM.

Gradient-free prompt optimization methods have made significant strides in enhancing the performance of closed-source Large Language Models (LLMs) across a wide range of tasks. However, existing approaches make light of the importance of high-quality prompt initialization and the identification of effective optimization directions, thus resulting in substantial optimization steps to obtain satisfactory performance. In this light, we aim to accelerate prompt optimization process to tackle the challenge of low convergence rate. We propose a dual-phase approach which starts with generating high-quality initial prompts by adopting a well-designed meta-instruction to delve into task-specific information, and iteratively optimize the prompts at the sentence level, leveraging previous tuning experience to expand prompt candidates and accept effective ones. Extensive experiments on eight datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, achieving a consistent accuracy gain over baselines with less than five optimization steps.

As an essential task in autonomous driving (AD), motion prediction aims to predict the future states of surround objects for navigation. One natural solution is to estimate the position of other agents in a step-by-step manner where each predicted time-step is conditioned on both observed time-steps and previously predicted time-steps, i.e., autoregressive prediction. Pioneering works like SocialLSTM and MFP design their decoders based on this intuition. However, almost all state-of-the-art works assume that all predicted time-steps are independent conditioned on observed time-steps, where they use a single linear layer to generate positions of all time-steps simultaneously. They dominate most motion prediction leaderboards due to the simplicity of training MLPs compared to autoregressive networks. In this paper, we introduce the GPT style next token prediction into motion forecasting. In this way, the input and output could be represented in a unified space and thus the autoregressive prediction becomes more feasible. However, different from language data which is composed of homogeneous units -words, the elements in the driving scene could have complex spatial-temporal and semantic relations. To this end, we propose to adopt three factorized attention modules with different neighbors for information aggregation and different position encoding styles to capture their relations, e.g., encoding the transformation between coordinate systems for spatial relativity while adopting RoPE for temporal relativity. Empirically, by equipping with the aforementioned tailored designs, the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance in the Waymo Open Motion and Waymo Interaction datasets. Notably, AMP outperforms other recent autoregressive motion prediction methods: MotionLM and StateTransformer, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed designs.

The pretraining-finetuning paradigm has become the prevailing trend in modern deep learning. In this work, we discover an intriguing linear phenomenon in models that are initialized from a common pretrained checkpoint and finetuned on different tasks, termed as Cross-Task Linearity (CTL). Specifically, if we linearly interpolate the weights of two finetuned models, the features in the weight-interpolated model are approximately equal to the linear interpolation of features in two finetuned models at each layer. Such cross-task linearity has not been noted in peer literature. We provide comprehensive empirical evidence supporting that CTL consistently occurs for finetuned models that start from the same pretrained checkpoint. We conjecture that in the pretraining-finetuning paradigm, neural networks essentially function as linear maps, mapping from the parameter space to the feature space. Based on this viewpoint, our study unveils novel insights into explaining model merging/editing, particularly by translating operations from the parameter space to the feature space.