Neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) is a leading cause of vision loss among older adults, where disease activity detection and progression prediction are critical for nAMD management in terms of timely drug administration and improving patient outcomes. Recent advancements in deep learning offer a promising solution for predicting changes in AMD from optical coherence tomography (OCT) retinal volumes. In this work, we proposed deep learning models for the two tasks of the public MARIO Challenge at MICCAI 2024, designed to detect and forecast changes in nAMD severity with longitudinal retinal OCT. For the first task, we employ a Vision Transformer (ViT) based Siamese Network to detect changes in AMD severity by comparing scan embeddings of a patient from different time points. To train a model to forecast the change after 3 months, we exploit, for the first time, an Earth Mover (Wasserstein) Distance-based loss to harness the ordinal relation within the severity change classes. Both models ranked high on the preliminary leaderboard, demonstrating that their predictive capabilities could facilitate nAMD treatment management.

Predicting future disease progression risk from medical images is challenging due to patient heterogeneity, and subtle or unknown imaging biomarkers. Moreover, deep learning (DL) methods for survival analysis are susceptible to image domain shifts across scanners. We tackle these issues in the task of predicting late dry Age-related Macular Degeneration (dAMD) onset from retinal OCT scans. We propose a novel DL method for survival prediction to jointly predict from the current scan a risk score, inversely related to time-to-conversion, and the probability of conversion within a time interval $t$. It uses a family of parallel hyperplanes generated by parameterizing the bias term as a function of $t$. In addition, we develop unsupervised losses based on intra-subject image pairs to ensure that risk scores increase over time and that future conversion predictions are consistent with AMD stage prediction using actual scans of future visits. Such losses enable data-efficient fine-tuning of the trained model on new unlabeled datasets acquired with a different scanner. Extensive evaluation on two large datasets acquired with different scanners resulted in a mean AUROCs of 0.82 for Dataset-1 and 0.83 for Dataset-2, across prediction intervals of 6,12 and 24 months.

Clinicians spend a significant amount of time reviewing medical images and transcribing their findings regarding patient diagnosis, referral and treatment in text form. Vision-language models (VLMs), which automatically interpret images and summarize their findings as text, have enormous potential to alleviate clinical workloads and increase patient access to high-quality medical care. While foundational models have stirred considerable interest in the medical community, it is unclear whether their general capabilities translate to real-world clinical utility. In this work, we show that foundation VLMs markedly underperform compared to practicing ophthalmologists on specialist tasks crucial to the care of patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). To address this, we initially identified the essential capabilities required for image-based clinical decision-making, and then developed a curriculum to selectively train VLMs in these skills. The resulting model, RetinaVLM, can be instructed to write reports that significantly outperform those written by leading foundation medical VLMs in disease staging (F1 score of 0.63 vs. 0.11) and patient referral (0.67 vs. 0.39), and approaches the diagnostic performance of junior ophthalmologists (who achieve 0.77 and 0.78 on the respective tasks). Furthermore, in a reader study involving two senior ophthalmologists with up to 32 years of experience, RetinaVLM's reports were found to be similarly correct (78.6% vs. 82.1%) and complete (both 78.6%) as reports written by junior ophthalmologists with up to 10 years of experience. These results demonstrate that our curriculum-based approach provides a blueprint for specializing generalist foundation medical VLMs to handle real-world clinical tasks.

Diseases are currently managed by grading systems, where patients are stratified by grading systems into stages that indicate patient risk and guide clinical management. However, these broad categories typically lack prognostic value, and proposals for new biomarkers are currently limited to anecdotal observations. In this work, we introduce a deep-learning-based biomarker proposal system for the purpose of accelerating biomarker discovery in age-related macular degeneration (AMD). It works by first training a neural network using self-supervised contrastive learning to discover, without any clinical annotations, features relating to both known and unknown AMD biomarkers present in 46,496 retinal optical coherence tomography (OCT) images. To interpret the discovered biomarkers, we partition the images into 30 subsets, termed clusters, that contain similar features. We then conduct two parallel 1.5-hour semi-structured interviews with two independent teams of retinal specialists that describe each cluster in clinical language. Overall, both teams independently identified clearly distinct characteristics in 27 of 30 clusters, of which 23 were related to AMD. Seven were recognised as known biomarkers already used in established grading systems and 16 depicted biomarker combinations or subtypes that are either not yet used in grading systems, were only recently proposed, or were unknown. Clusters separated incomplete from complete retinal atrophy, intraretinal from subretinal fluid and thick from thin choroids, and in simulation outperformed clinically-used grading systems in prognostic value. Overall, contrastive learning enabled the automatic proposal of AMD biomarkers that go beyond the set used by clinically established grading systems. Ultimately, we envision that equipping clinicians with discovery-oriented deep-learning tools can accelerate discovery of novel prognostic biomarkers.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has emerged as a powerful technique for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of deep learning models. Contrastive methods are a prominent family of SSL that extract similar representations of two augmented views of an image while pushing away others in the representation space as negatives. However, the state-of-the-art contrastive methods require large batch sizes and augmentations designed for natural images that are impractical for 3D medical images. To address these limitations, we propose a new longitudinal SSL method, 3DTINC, based on non-contrastive learning. It is designed to learn perturbation-invariant features for 3D optical coherence tomography (OCT) volumes, using augmentations specifically designed for OCT. We introduce a new non-contrastive similarity loss term that learns temporal information implicitly from intra-patient scans acquired at different times. Our experiments show that this temporal information is crucial for predicting progression of retinal diseases, such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD). After pretraining with 3DTINC, we evaluated the learned representations and the prognostic models on two large-scale longitudinal datasets of retinal OCTs where we predict the conversion to wet-AMD within a six months interval. Our results demonstrate that each component of our contributions is crucial for learning meaningful representations useful in predicting disease progression from longitudinal volumetric scans.

In the field of medical imaging, 3D deep learning models play a crucial role in building powerful predictive models of disease progression. However, the size of these models presents significant challenges, both in terms of computational resources and data requirements. Moreover, achieving high-quality pretraining of 3D models proves to be even more challenging. To address these issues, hybrid 2.5D approaches provide an effective solution for utilizing 3D volumetric data efficiently using 2D models. Combining 2D and 3D techniques offers a promising avenue for optimizing performance while minimizing memory requirements. In this paper, we explore 2.5D architectures based on a combination of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), and Transformers. In addition, leveraging the benefits of recent non-contrastive pretraining approaches in 2D, we enhanced the performance and data efficiency of 2.5D techniques even further. We demonstrate the effectiveness of architectures and associated pretraining on a task of predicting progression to wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) within a six-month period on two large longitudinal OCT datasets.

The lack of reliable biomarkers makes predicting the conversion from intermediate to neovascular age-related macular degeneration (iAMD, nAMD) a challenging task. We develop a Deep Learning (DL) model to predict the future risk of conversion of an eye from iAMD to nAMD from its current OCT scan. Although eye clinics generate vast amounts of longitudinal OCT scans to monitor AMD progression, only a small subset can be manually labeled for supervised DL. To address this issue, we propose Morph-SSL, a novel Self-supervised Learning (SSL) method for longitudinal data. It uses pairs of unlabelled OCT scans from different visits and involves morphing the scan from the previous visit to the next. The Decoder predicts the transformation for morphing and ensures a smooth feature manifold that can generate intermediate scans between visits through linear interpolation. Next, the Morph-SSL trained features are input to a Classifier which is trained in a supervised manner to model the cumulative probability distribution of the time to conversion with a sigmoidal function. Morph-SSL was trained on unlabelled scans of 399 eyes (3570 visits). The Classifier was evaluated with a five-fold cross-validation on 2418 scans from 343 eyes with clinical labels of the conversion date. The Morph-SSL features achieved an AUC of 0.766 in predicting the conversion to nAMD within the next 6 months, outperforming the same network when trained end-to-end from scratch or pre-trained with popular SSL methods. Automated prediction of the future risk of nAMD onset can enable timely treatment and individualized AMD management.

The early detection of glaucoma is essential in preventing visual impairment. Artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to analyze color fundus photographs (CFPs) in a cost-effective manner, making glaucoma screening more accessible. While AI models for glaucoma screening from CFPs have shown promising results in laboratory settings, their performance decreases significantly in real-world scenarios due to the presence of out-of-distribution and low-quality images. To address this issue, we propose the Artificial Intelligence for Robust Glaucoma Screening (AIROGS) challenge. This challenge includes a large dataset of around 113,000 images from about 60,000 patients and 500 different screening centers, and encourages the development of algorithms that are robust to ungradable and unexpected input data. We evaluated solutions from 14 teams in this paper, and found that the best teams performed similarly to a set of 20 expert ophthalmologists and optometrists. The highest-scoring team achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98-0.99) for detecting ungradable images on-the-fly. Additionally, many of the algorithms showed robust performance when tested on three other publicly available datasets. These results demonstrate the feasibility of robust AI-enabled glaucoma screening.

Diagnosis and treatment guidance are aided by detecting relevant biomarkers in medical images. Although supervised deep learning can perform accurate segmentation of pathological areas, it is limited by requiring a-priori definitions of these regions, large-scale annotations, and a representative patient cohort in the training set. In contrast, anomaly detection is not limited to specific definitions of pathologies and allows for training on healthy samples without annotation. Anomalous regions can then serve as candidates for biomarker discovery. Knowledge about normal anatomical structure brings implicit information for detecting anomalies. We propose to take advantage of this property using bayesian deep learning, based on the assumption that epistemic uncertainties will correlate with anatomical deviations from a normal training set. A Bayesian U-Net is trained on a well-defined healthy environment using weak labels of healthy anatomy produced by existing methods. At test time, we capture epistemic uncertainty estimates of our model using Monte Carlo dropout. A novel post-processing technique is then applied to exploit these estimates and transfer their layered appearance to smooth blob-shaped segmentations of the anomalies. We experimentally validated this approach in retinal optical coherence tomography (OCT) images, using weak labels of retinal layers. Our method achieved a Dice index of 0.789 in an independent anomaly test set of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) cases. The resulting segmentations allowed very high accuracy for separating healthy and diseased cases with late wet AMD, dry geographic atrophy (GA), diabetic macular edema (DME) and retinal vein occlusion (RVO). Finally, we qualitatively observed that our approach can also detect other deviations in normal scans such as cut edge artifacts.