Predicting the near-term behavior of a reactive agent is crucial in many robotic scenarios, yet remains challenging when observations of that agent are sparse or intermittent. Vision-Language Models (VLMs) offer a promising avenue by integrating textual domain knowledge with visual cues, but their one-shot predictions often miss important edge cases and unusual maneuvers. Our key insight is that iterative, counterfactual exploration--where a dedicated module probes each proposed behavior hypothesis, explicitly represented as a plausible trajectory, for overlooked possibilities--can significantly enhance VLM-based behavioral forecasting. We present TRACE (Tree-of-thought Reasoning And Counterfactual Exploration), an inference framework that couples tree-of-thought generation with domain-aware feedback to refine behavior hypotheses over multiple rounds. Concretely, a VLM first proposes candidate trajectories for the agent; a counterfactual critic then suggests edge-case variations consistent with partial observations, prompting the VLM to expand or adjust its hypotheses in the next iteration. This creates a self-improving cycle where the VLM progressively internalizes edge cases from previous rounds, systematically uncovering not only typical behaviors but also rare or borderline maneuvers, ultimately yielding more robust trajectory predictions from minimal sensor data. We validate TRACE on both ground-vehicle simulations and real-world marine autonomous surface vehicles. Experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms standard VLM-driven and purely model-based baselines, capturing a broader range of feasible agent behaviors despite sparse sensing. Evaluation videos and code are available at trace-robotics.github.io.

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in meteorology, capable of analyzing complex weather and climate data by learning intricate dependencies and providing rapid predictions once trained. While these models demonstrate promising performance in weather prediction, often surpassing traditional physics-based methods, they still face critical challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent deep learning and foundation models for weather prediction. We propose a taxonomy to classify existing models based on their training paradigms: deterministic predictive learning, probabilistic generative learning, and pre-training and fine-tuning. For each paradigm, we delve into the underlying model architectures, address major challenges, offer key insights, and propose targeted directions for future research. Furthermore, we explore real-world applications of these methods and provide a curated summary of open-source code repositories and widely used datasets, aiming to bridge research advancements with practical implementations while fostering open and trustworthy scientific practices in adopting cutting-edge artificial intelligence for weather prediction. The related sources are available at https://github.com/JimengShi/ DL-Foundation-Models-Weather.

Robots performing navigation tasks in complex environments face significant challenges due to uncertainty in state estimation. Effectively managing this uncertainty is crucial, but the optimal approach varies depending on the specific details of the task: different tasks require varying levels of precision in different regions of the environment. For instance, a robot navigating a crowded space might need precise localization near obstacles but can operate effectively with less precise state estimates in open areas. This varying need for certainty in different parts of the environment, depending on the task, calls for policies that can adapt their uncertainty management strategies based on task-specific requirements. In this paper, we present a framework for integrating task-specific uncertainty requirements directly into navigation policies. We introduce Task-Specific Uncertainty Map (TSUM), which represents acceptable levels of state estimation uncertainty across different regions of the operating environment for a given task. Using TSUM, we propose Generalized Uncertainty Integration for Decision-Making and Execution (GUIDE), a policy conditioning framework that incorporates these uncertainty requirements into the robot's decision-making process. We find that conditioning policies on TSUMs provides an effective way to express task-specific uncertainty requirements and enables the robot to reason about the context-dependent value of certainty. We show how integrating GUIDE into reinforcement learning frameworks allows the agent to learn navigation policies without the need for explicit reward engineering to balance task completion and uncertainty management. We evaluate GUIDE on a variety of real-world navigation tasks and find that it demonstrates significant improvements in task completion rates compared to baselines. Evaluation videos can be found at https://guided-agents.github.io.

Efficient and intuitive Human-Robot interfaces are crucial for expanding the user base of operators and enabling new applications in critical areas such as precision agriculture, automated construction, rehabilitation, and environmental monitoring. In this paper, we investigate the design of human-robot interfaces for the teleoperation of dynamical systems. The proposed framework seeks to find an optimal interface that complies with key concepts such as user comfort, efficiency, continuity, and consistency. As a proof-of-concept, we introduce an innovative approach to teleoperating underwater vehicles, allowing the translation between human body movements into vehicle control commands. This method eliminates the need for divers to work in harsh underwater environments while taking into account comfort and communication constraints. We conducted a study with human subjects using a head-mounted display attached to a smartphone to control a simulated ROV. Also, numerical experiments have demonstrated that the optimal translation is often the most intuitive and natural one, aligning with users' expectations.

-- Compute and memory constraints have historically prevented traffic simulation software users from fully utilizing the predictive models underlying them. When calibrating car-following models, particularly, accommodations have included 1) using sensitivity analysis to limit the number of parameters to be calibrated, and 2) identifying only one set of parameter values using data collected from multiple car-following instances across multiple drivers. Shortcuts are further motivated by insufficient data set sizes, for which a driver may have too few instances to fully account for the variation in their driving behavior . In this paper, we demonstrate that recent technological advances can enable transportation researchers and engineers to overcome these constraints and produce calibration results that 1) outperform industry standard approaches, and 2) allow for a unique set of parameters to be estimated for each driver in a data set, even given a small amount of data. We propose a novel calibration procedure for car-following models based on Bayesian machine learning and probabilistic programming, and apply it to real-world data from a naturalistic driving study. We also discuss how this combination of mathematical and software tools can offer additional benefits such as more informative model validation and the incorporation of true-to-data uncertainty into simulation traces. Traffic simulation software packages are widely used in transportation engineering to estimate the impacts of potential changes to a roadway network and forecast system performance under future scenarios. These packages are underpinned by math-and physics-based models, which are designed to describe behavior at an aggregate (macroscopic) level or at the level of individual drivers (microscopic).