Statistical downscaling is a technique used in climate modeling to increase the resolution of climate simulations. High-resolution climate information is essential for various high-impact applications, including natural hazard risk assessment. However, simulating climate at high resolution is intractable. Thus, climate simulations are often conducted at a coarse scale and then downscaled to the desired resolution. Existing downscaling techniques are either simulation-based methods with high computational costs, or statistical approaches with limitations in accuracy or application specificity. We introduce Generative Bias Correction and Super-Resolution (GenBCSR), a two-stage probabilistic framework for statistical downscaling that overcomes the limitations of previous methods. GenBCSR employs two transformations to match high-dimensional distributions at different resolutions: (i) the first stage, bias correction, aligns the distributions at coarse scale, (ii) the second stage, statistical super-resolution, lifts the corrected coarse distribution by introducing fine-grained details. Each stage is instantiated by a state-of-the-art generative model, resulting in an efficient and effective computational pipeline for the well-studied distribution matching problem. By framing the downscaling problem as distribution matching, GenBCSR relaxes the constraints of supervised learning, which requires samples to be aligned. Despite not requiring such correspondence, we show that GenBCSR surpasses standard approaches in predictive accuracy of critical impact variables, particularly in predicting the tails (99% percentile) of composite indexes composed of interacting variables, achieving up to 4-5 folds of error reduction.

Regional high-resolution climate projections are crucial for many applications, such as agriculture, hydrology, and natural hazard risk assessment. Dynamical downscaling, the state-of-the-art method to produce localized future climate information, involves running a regional climate model (RCM) driven by an Earth System Model (ESM), but it is too computationally expensive to apply to large climate projection ensembles. We propose a novel approach combining dynamical downscaling with generative artificial intelligence to reduce the cost and improve the uncertainty estimates of downscaled climate projections. In our framework, an RCM dynamically downscales ESM output to an intermediate resolution, followed by a generative diffusion model that further refines the resolution to the target scale. This approach leverages the generalizability of physics-based models and the sampling efficiency of diffusion models, enabling the downscaling of large multi-model ensembles. We evaluate our method against dynamically-downscaled climate projections from the CMIP6 ensemble. Our results demonstrate its ability to provide more accurate uncertainty bounds on future regional climate than alternatives such as dynamical downscaling of smaller ensembles, or traditional empirical statistical downscaling methods. We also show that dynamical-generative downscaling results in significantly lower errors than bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD), and captures more accurately the spectra and multivariate correlations of meteorological fields. These characteristics make the dynamical-generative framework a flexible, accurate, and efficient way to downscale large ensembles of climate projections, currently out of reach for pure dynamical downscaling.

We introduce a two-stage probabilistic framework for statistical downscaling using unpaired data. Statistical downscaling seeks a probabilistic map to transform low-resolution data from a biased coarse-grained numerical scheme to high-resolution data that is consistent with a high-fidelity scheme. Our framework tackles the problem by composing two transformations: (i) a debiasing step via an optimal transport map, and (ii) an upsampling step achieved by a probabilistic diffusion model with a posteriori conditional sampling. This approach characterizes a conditional distribution without needing paired data, and faithfully recovers relevant physical statistics from biased samples. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach on one- and two-dimensional fluid flow problems, which are representative of the core difficulties present in numerical simulations of weather and climate. Our method produces realistic high-resolution outputs from low-resolution inputs, by upsampling resolutions of 8x and 16x. Moreover, our procedure correctly matches the statistics of physical quantities, even when the low-frequency content of the inputs and outputs do not match, a crucial but difficult-to-satisfy assumption needed by current state-of-the-art alternatives. Code for this work is available at: https://github.com/google-research/swirl-dynamics/tree/main/swirl_dynamics/projects/probabilistic_diffusion.

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble of forecasts. This is done by running many physics-based simulations under different conditions, which is a computationally costly process. We propose to amortize the computational cost by emulating these forecasts with deep generative diffusion models learned from historical data. The learned models are highly scalable with respect to high-performance computing accelerators and can sample hundreds to tens of thousands of realistic weather forecasts at low cost. When designed to emulate operational ensemble forecasts, the generated ones are similar to physics-based ensembles in important statistical properties and predictive skill. When designed to correct biases present in the operational forecasting system, the generated ensembles show improved probabilistic forecast metrics. They are more reliable and forecast probabilities of extreme weather events more accurately. While this work demonstrates the utility of the methodology by focusing on weather forecasting, the generative artificial intelligence methodology can be extended for uncertainty quantification in climate modeling, where we believe the generation of very large ensembles of climate projections will play an increasingly important role in climate risk assessment.

Many recent advances in neural information retrieval models, which predict top-K items given a query, learn directly from a large training set of (query, item) pairs. However, they are often insufficient when there are many previously unseen (query, item) combinations, often referred to as the cold start problem. Furthermore, the search system can be biased towards items that are frequently shown to a query previously, also known as the 'rich get richer' (a.k.a. feedback loop) problem. In light of these problems, we observed that most online content platforms have both a search and a recommender system that, while having heterogeneous input spaces, can be connected through their common output item space and a shared semantic representation. In this paper, we propose a new Zero-Shot Heterogeneous Transfer Learning framework that transfers learned knowledge from the recommender system component to improve the search component of a content platform. First, it learns representations of items and their natural-language features by predicting (item, item) correlation graphs derived from the recommender system as an auxiliary task. Then, the learned representations are transferred to solve the target search retrieval task, performing query-to-item prediction without having seen any (query, item) pairs in training. We conduct online and offline experiments on one of the world's largest search and recommender systems from Google, and present the results and lessons learned. We demonstrate that the proposed approach can achieve high performance on offline search retrieval tasks, and more importantly, achieved significant improvements on relevance and user interactions over the highly-optimized production system in online experiments.

Embedding based models have been the state of the art in collaborative filtering for over a decade. Traditionally, the dot product or higher order equivalents have been used to combine two or more embeddings, e.g., most notably in matrix factorization. In recent years, it was suggested to replace the dot product with a learned similarity e.g. using a multilayer perceptron (MLP). This approach is often referred to as neural collaborative filtering (NCF). In this work, we revisit the experiments of the NCF paper that popularized learned similarities using MLPs. First, we show that with a proper hyperparameter selection, a simple dot product substantially outperforms the proposed learned similarities. Second, while a MLP can in theory approximate any function, we show that it is non-trivial to learn a dot product with an MLP. Finally, we discuss practical issues that arise when applying MLP based similarities and show that MLPs are too costly to use for item recommendation in production environments while dot products allow to apply very efficient retrieval algorithms. We conclude that MLPs should be used with care as embedding combiner and that dot products might be a better default choice.

Recommender system research suffers from a disconnect between the size of academic data sets and the scale of industrial production systems. In order to bridge that gap, we propose to generate large-scale user/item interaction data sets by expanding pre-existing public data sets. Our key contribution is a technique that expands user/item incidence matrices matrices to large numbers of rows (users), columns (items), and non-zero values (interactions). The proposed method adapts Kronecker Graph Theory to preserve key higher order statistical properties such as the fat-tailed distribution of user engagements, item popularity, and singular value spectra of user/item interaction matrices. Preserving such properties is key to building large realistic synthetic data sets which in turn can be employed reliably to benchmark recommender systems and the systems employed to train them. We further apply our stochastic expansion algorithm to the binarized MovieLens 20M data set, which comprises 20M interactions between 27K movies and 138K users. The resulting expanded data set has 1.2B ratings, 2.2M users, and 855K items, which can be scaled up or down.

Recommender System research suffers currently from a disconnect between the size of academic data sets and the scale of industrial production systems. In order to bridge that gap we propose to generate more massive user/item interaction data sets by expanding pre-existing public data sets. User/item incidence matrices record interactions between users and items on a given platform as a large sparse matrix whose rows correspond to users and whose columns correspond to items. Our technique expands such matrices to larger numbers of rows (users), columns (items) and non zero values (interactions) while preserving key higher order statistical properties. We adapt the Kronecker Graph Theory to user/item incidence matrices and show that the corresponding fractal expansions preserve the fat-tailed distributions of user engagements, item popularity and singular value spectra of user/item interaction matrices. Preserving such properties is key to building large realistic synthetic data sets which in turn can be employed reliably to benchmark Recommender Systems and the systems employed to train them. We provide algorithms to produce such expansions and apply them to the MovieLens 20 million data set comprising 20 million ratings of 27K movies by 138K users. The resulting expanded data set has 10 billion ratings, 864K items and 2 million users in its smaller version and can be scaled up or down. A larger version features 655 billion ratings, 7 million items and 17 million users.

Magicians have been a source of entertainment formany centuries, with the ability to play on human bias,and perception to create an entertaining experience.There has been rapid growth in robotics throughoutindustrial applications; where primary challenges in-clude improving human-robot interaction, and roboticperception. Despite preliminary work in expressive AI,which aims to use AI for entertainment; there has notbeen direct application of fully embodied autonomousagents (vision, speech, learning, planning) to enter-tainment domains. This paper describes preliminarywork towards the use of magic tricks as a methodfor developing fully-embodied autonomous agents. Acard trick is developed requiring vision, communica-tion, interaction, and learning capabilities all of whichare coordinated using our script representation. Ourwork is evaluated quantitatively through experimen-tation, and qualitatively through acquiring 2nd placeat the 2016 IROS Humanoid Application Challenge.A video of the live performance can be found at https://youtu.be/OMpcmcPWAVM.