How Are You Feeling? Surveys Aim to Detect Covid-19 Hot Spots Early

Teams of epidemiologists and computer scientists on three continents have started mass population surveys to try to get ahead of the coronavirus and ensure that scarce diagnostic tests, and even scarcer ventilators, are sent where they can do the most good. More than two million people in Britain and 150,000 Israelis have already completed simple questionnaires, and many are updating their answers daily. Analysts of the data -- including symptoms of Covid-19 and test results, as well as risk factors and demographics -- say they have been able to identify incipient outbreaks days ahead of the authorities. Three groups in the United States -- led by Massachusetts General Hospital, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Weill Cornell Medicine in New York -- are now vying to attract enough survey participants nationwide to detect impending hot spots. In Israel, where artificial-intelligence experts at the Weizmann Institute of Science have played a leading role in the effort, computer models that were fed the results of questionnaires accurately predicted surges in cases in cities like Bnei Brak, Jerusalem and Beersheva five days in advance, researchers said.