Computational approaches and machine learning for individual-level treatment predictions - PubMed

Rationale: The impact of neuroscience-based approaches for psychiatry on pragmatic clinical decision-making has been limited. Although neuroscience has provided insights into basic mechanisms of neural function, these insights have not improved the ability to generate better assessments, prognoses, diagnoses, or treatment of psychiatric conditions. Objectives: To integrate the emerging findings in machine learning and computational psychiatry to address the question: what measures that are not derived from the patient's self-assessment or the assessment by a trained professional can be used to make more precise predictions about the individual's current state, the individual's future disease trajectory, or the probability to respond to a particular intervention? Results: Currently, the ability to use individual differences to predict differential outcomes is very modest possibly related to the fact that the effect sizes of interventions are small. There is emerging evidence of genetic and neuroimaging-based heterogeneity of psychiatric disorders, which contributes to imprecise predictions.