1 big thing: Carmakers hedge bets on electric, self-driving future

Last year's tax reform spurred stronger-than-expected car sales by giving consumers more disposable income, but the payback will come this spring when many Americans could discover they're not getting the tax refund they had expected. Why it matters: Car sales are a key driver of the U.S. economy, and the industry sees a big uptick every spring as consumers turn their tax refund into a deposit on a new or used car. Without that seasonal bounce, 2019 auto sales may be lower, making a recession more likely. Background: Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke spoke to reporters on the eve of this week's Detroit auto show and made some points... What's happening: Some consumers may be surprised to learn they are receiving no tax refund in 2019, a smaller one than expected or that they might even owe the government money, Smoke says. The bottom line: Cox Automotive, the digital information giant behind AutoTrader, Kelly Blue Book and Manheim Auto Auctions, sees U.S. auto sales falling to 16.8 million units in 2019.