Ofsted to use artificial intelligence algorithm to predict which schools are 'less than good'

Ofsted has said that from next term a computer algorithm will be used in deciding whether to inspect good and outstanding schools. In a methodology note published today, the inspectorate says that rather than using pre-determined thresholds on performance data, as in previous years, it will use "supervised machine learning" for the first stage of decision making from the summer term of 2018. It says that it has now created an algorithm which "has effectively produced a probability of a forthcoming inspection being less than good", which is known as the "raw risk score". "We believe [our new methodology] will improve our capacity to identify concerns about performance," the note states. The machine learning algorithm was created by looking at data on progress and attainment, school workforce data and parent view responses to see how it fitted with the known inspection outcomes.