Which wildfires will burn out of control? Machine learning can help

A satellite image of Alaska captured in August 2005 shows the extent of smoke coverage from wildfires in the state's boreal forests. The blazes are likely to become large in exceptionally hot and dry conditions and when there's a high percentage of black spruce trees in the affected areas – key factors in a new predictive model developed by UCI scientists. An interdisciplinary team of scientists at the University of California, Irvine has developed a new technique for predicting the final size of a wildfire from the moment of ignition. Built around a machine learning algorithm, the model can help in forecasting whether a blaze is going to be small, medium or large by the time it has run its course – knowledge useful to those in charge of allocating scarce firefighting resources. The researchers' work is highlighted in a study published today in the International Journal of Wildland Fire.