Moore's Law: What Comes Next?

Computer designers are becoming increasingly concerned about the ending of Moore's Law, and what it means for users if the industry can no longer count on the idea that the density of logic circuits will double every two years, as it has for close to half a century. It may mean radical changes to the way users think about software. Leading researchers in semiconductor design point out that, although logic density is butting up against physical limits, it does not necessarily spell the end of Moore's Law itself. Gordon Moore's speech at the 1975 International Electron Device Meeting (IEDM) predicted significant increases in chip size and improvements in circuit design as part of the scaling process, in addition to regular reductions in transistor size and interconnect spacing. During a September virtual meeting of the IEEE International Roadmap for Devices and Systems group, chairman and Intel director of technology strategy Paolo Gargini, argued, "Though Gordon made this clear, people have concentrated only on dimensional scaling. That's the reason why people have doubts about the next technology nodes. It appears as though we are in a crisis, but we are not, because of the other two components."