What Does the Future Hold?

I was asked to give a visionary talk about the future applications of Artificial Intelligence technology; but I should warn you that I'm actually not very good as a visionary. Most of my predictions about what will happen in the industry don't come true even though they ought to. So I'm not going to tell you what the future holds; what I will do is to point out some of the technological trends that are at work. The outline of the talk is as follows: I'll start off by looking at the previous IAAI conferences and reflect on what we've learned from them. Then I'll look at what's changing in the hardware base that sets the context for all the computer applications we do. I think that will lead to interesting new viewpoints. Next I'll sketch what applications might arise from this new viewpoint. Finally, I'll discuss how the development of practical applications ought to interact with the scientific enterprise of trying to understand intelligence, in particular, human intelligence.