The AI Bookie

The AI Bookie column documents highlights from AI Bets, an online forum for the creation of adjudicatable predictions and bets about the future of AI. While it is easy to make a prediction about the future, this forum was created to help researchers craft predictions whose accuracy can be clearly and unambiguously judged when they come due. The bets will be documented on line, and regularly in this publication in The AI Bookie. We encourage bets that are rigorously and scientifically argued. It is common these days to hear laments about the loss of rigor in AI (for example, see Lipton and Steinhardt 2018), for researchers to point to the dramatic overspecialization and the tendency of communities to endlessly pursue derivative results well past the point of no return.