Localized Adaptive Risk Control

Adaptive Risk Control (ARC) is an online calibration strategy based on set prediction that offers worst-case deterministic long-term risk control, as well as statistical marginal coverage guarantees. ARC adjusts the size of the prediction set by varying a single scalar threshold based on feedback from past decisions. In this work, we introduce Localized Adaptive Risk Control (L-ARC), an online calibration scheme that targets statistical localized risk guarantees ranging from conditional risk to marginal risk, while preserving the worst-case performance of ARC.