A Decomposition of Forecast Error in Prediction Markets

Miro Dudik, Sebastien Lahaie, Ryan M. Rogers, Jennifer Wortman Vaughan

Nov-21-2025, 11:52:33 GMT–Neural Information Processing Systems

We analyze sources of error in prediction market forecasts in order to bound the difference between a security's price and the ground truth it estimates.

artificial intelligence, cost function, modeling & simulation, (18 more...)

Neural Information Processing Systems

Nov-21-2025, 11:52:33 GMT

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Country:
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- North America > United States
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  - Pennsylvania > Philadelphia County
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Industry:
- Banking & Finance > Trading (1.00)

Technology:
- Information Technology
  - Artificial Intelligence (0.93)
  - Modeling & Simulation (0.64)

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A Decomposition of Forecast Error in Prediction Markets
A Decomposition of Forecast Error in Prediction Markets

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