Sequential Probability Assignment with Contexts: Minimax Regret, Contextual Shtarkov Sums, and Contextual Normalized Maximum Likelihood

We study the fundamental problem of sequential probability assignment, also known as online learning with logarithmic loss, with respect to an arbitrary, possibly nonparametric hypothesis class. Our goal is to obtain a complexity measure for the hypothesis class that characterizes the minimax regret and to determine a general, minimax optimal algorithm.