A Quantitative Model of Counterfactual Reasoning

In this paper we explore two quantitative approaches to the modelling of counterfactual reasoning - a linear and a noisy-OR model - based on information contained in conceptual dependency networks. Empirical data is acquired in a study and the fit of the models compared to it. We conclude by considering the appropriateness of nonparametric approaches to counterfactual reasoning, and examining the prospects for other parametric approaches in the future.