Accurate Uncertainty Estimation and Decomposition in Ensemble Learning

Jeremiah Liu, John Paisley, Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou, Brent Coull

Neural Information Processing Systems 

Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric ensemble (BNE) approach that augments an existing ensemble model to account for different sources of model uncertainty.