Exact Selective Inference with Randomization

Panigrahi, Snigdha, Fry, Kevin, Taylor, Jonathan

arXiv.org Machine Learning 

The polyhedral method by Lee et al. (2016) introduced confidence intervals for exact selective inference in Gaussian regression models. This method provides valid inferences for selected parameters by conditioning on the outcome of selection. A pivot is obtained for each selected parameter from a truncated Gaussian distribution, provided the outcome of selection can be described by linear constraints, also known as polyhedral constraints. However, as shown by Kivaranovic and Leeb (2021), confidence intervals based on this pivot can have infinite length in expectation. Randomizing data at the time of selection and conditioning on the outcome of randomized selection produces narrower confidence intervals than the polyhedral method.

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