Auto-differentiable Ensemble Kalman Filters

Time series of data arising across geophysical sciences, remote sensing, automatic control, and a variety of other scientific and engineering applications often reflect observations of an underlying dynamical system operating in a latent state-space. Estimating the evolution of this latent state from data is the central challenge of data assimilation (DA) [28, 39, 49, 68, 75]. However, in these and other applications, we often lack an accurate model of the underlying dynamics, and the dynamical model needs to be learned from the observations to perform DA. This paper introduces auto-differentiable ensemble Kalman filters (AD-EnKFs), a machine learning (ML) framework for the principled co-learning of states and dynamics. This framework enables learning in three core categories of unknown dynamics: (a) parametric dynamical models with unknown parameter values; (b) fully-unknown dynamics captured using neural network (NN) surrogate models; and (c) inaccurate or partially-known dynamical models that can be improved using NN corrections. AD-EnKFs are designed to scale to high-dimensional states, observations, and NN surrogate models. In order to describe the main idea behind the AD-EnKF framework, let us introduce briefly the problem of interest. Our setting will be formalized in §2 below.