Geometric Dynamics of Consumer Credit Cycles: A Multivector-based Linear-Attention Framework for Explanatory Economic Analysis

Understanding the dynamics of consumer credit cycles requires analyzing a complex web of interconnected economic relationships. When unemployment rises, consumers typically reduce spending and increase precautionary savings, while simultaneously facing greater difficulty servicing existing debt obligations. This creates pressure on revolving credit balances as households may increase borrowing to maintain consumption levels, ultimately leading to higher default rates. However, the timing, magnitude, and interaction patterns of these relationships vary dramatically across different economic cycles, creating fundamentally different crisis mechanisms that correlation-based analysis cannot distinguish. Consider the 2008 financial crisis versus the 1990-91 recession.