A Theory of Heuristic Reasoning About Uncertainty

People's certainty of the past is D follows from A. B. and C. It may be that A. B. and C, limited by the fidelity of the devices that record it, their though certain, suggest but do not confirm D. in which case knowledge of the present is always incomplete, and their the number associated with D might be less than the 1.0 that knowledge of the future is but speculation. Even though usually represents certainty in such systems. If A. B. or C nothing is certain, people behave as if almost nothing is are uncertain, then the number associated with D is modified uncertain. They are adept at discounting uncertainty -- to account for the uncertainty of its premises. These numbers making it go away. This article discusses how Al programs are given different names by different authors; we refer might be made similarly adept.