Information about the spread of crop disease is vital in developing countries, and as a result the governments of such countries devote scarce resources to gathering such data. Unfortunately, current surveys tend to be slow and expensive, and hence also tend to gather insufficient quantities of data. In this work we describe three general methods for improving the use of survey resources by performing data collection with mobile devices and by directing survey progress through the application of AI techniques. First, we describe a spatial disease density model based on Gaussian process ordinal regression, which offers a better representation of the disease level distribution, as compared to the statistical approaches typically applied. Second, we show how this model can be used to dynamically route survey teams to obtain the most valuable survey possible given a fixed budget. Third, we demonstrate that the diagnosis of plant disease can be automated using images taken by a camera phone, enabling data collection by survey workers with only basic training. We have applied our methods to the specific challenge of viral cassava disease monitoring in Uganda, for which we have implemented a real-time mobile survey system that will soon see practical use.

In order to better protect and conserve biodiversity, ecologists use machine learning and statistics to understand how species respond to their environment and to predict how they will respond to future climate change, habitat loss and other threats. A fundamental modeling task is to estimate the probability that a given species is present in (or uses) a site, conditional on environmental variables such as precipitation and temperature. For a limited number of species, survey data consisting of both presence and absence records are available, and can be used to fit a variety of conventional classification and regression models. For most species, however, the available data consist only of occurrence records --- locations where the species has been observed. In two closely-related but separate bodies of ecological literature, diverse special-purpose models have been developed that contrast occurrence data with a random sample of available environmental conditions. The most widespread statistical approaches involve either fitting an exponential model of species' conditional probability of presence, or fitting a naive logistic model in which the random sample of available conditions is treated as absence data; both approaches have well-known drawbacks, and do not necessarily produce valid probabilities. After summarizing existing methods, we overcome their drawbacks by introducing a new scaled binomial loss function for estimating an underlying logistic model of species presence/absence. Like the Expectation-Maximization approach of Ward et al. and the method of Steinberg and Cardell, our approach requires an estimate of population prevalence, $\Pr(y=1)$, since prevalence is not identifiable from occurrence data alone. In contrast to the latter two methods, our loss function is straightforward to integrate into a variety of existing modeling frameworks such as generalized linear and additive models and boosted regression trees. We also demonstrate that approaches by Lele and Keim and by Lancaster and Imbens that surmount the identifiability issue by making parametric data assumptions do not typically produce valid probability estimates.

Sustainable resource management in many domains presents large continuous stochastic optimization problems, which can often be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs). To solve such large MDPs, we identify and leverage linearity in state and action sets that is common in resource management. In particular, we introduce linear dynamic programs (LDPs) that generalize resource management problems and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs). We show that the LDP framework makes it possible to adapt point-based methods--the state of the art in solving POMDPs--to solving LDPs. The experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach in managing the water level of a river reservoir. Finally, we discuss the relationship with dual dynamic programming, a method used to optimize hydroelectric systems.

A challenge to modeling and monitoring the health of the ocean environment is that it is largely under sensed and difficult to sense remotely. Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) can improve observability, for example of algal bloom regions, ocean acidification, and ocean circulation. This AUV paradigm, however, requires robust operation that is cost effective and responsive to the environment. To achieve low cost we generate operational sequences automatically from science goals, and achieve robustness by reasoning about the discrete and continuous effects of actions. We introduce Kongming2, a generative planner for hybrid systems with temporally extended goals (TEGs) and temporally flexible actions. It takes as input high level goals and outputs trajectories and actions of the hybrid system, for example an AUV. Kongming2 makes two major extensions to Kongming1: planning for TEGs, and planning with temporally flexible actions. We demonstrated a proof of concept of the planner in the Atlantic ocean on Odyssey IV, an AUV designed and built by the MIT AUV Lab at Sea Grant.

The conservation of wildlife corridors between existing habitat preserves is important for combating the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation facing species of concern. We introduce the Steiner Multigraph Problem to model the problem of minimum-cost wildlife corridor design for multiple species with different landscape requirements. This problem can also model other analogous settings in wireless and social networks. As a generalization of Steiner forest, the goal is to find a minimum-cost subgraph that connects multiple sets of terminals. In contrast to Steiner forest, each set of terminals can only be connected via a subset of the nodes. Generalizing Steiner forest in this way makes the problem NP-hard even when restricted to two pairs of terminals. However, we show that if the node subsets have a nested structure, the problem admits a fixed-parameter tractable algorithm in the number of terminals. We successfully test exact and heuristic solution approaches on a wildlife corridor instance for wolverines and lynx in western Montana, showing that though the problem is computationally hard, heuristics perform well, and provably optimal solutions can still be obtained.

In this paper we present a data-driven approach to modeling end user energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings. Our model is based upon a data set of monthly electricity and gas bills, collected by a utility over the course of several years, for approximately 6,500 buildings in Cambridge, MA. In addition, we use publicly available tax assessor records and geographical survey information to determine corresponding features for the buildings. Using both parametric and non-parametric learning methods, we learn models that predict distributions over energy usage based upon these features, and use these models to develop two end-user systems. For utilities or authorized institutions (those who may obtain access to the full data) we provide a system that visualizes energy consumption for each building in the city; this allows companies to quickly identify outliers (buildings which use much more energy than expected even after conditioning on the relevant predictors), for instance allowing them to target homes for potential retrofits or tiered pricing schemes. For other end users, we provide an interface for entering their own electricity and gas usage, along with basic information about their home, to determine how their consumption compares to that of similar buildings as predicted by our model. Merely allowing users to contextualize their consumption in this way, relating it to the consumption in similar buildings, can itself produce behavior changes to significantly reduce consumption.

Important ecological phenomena are often observed indirectly. Consequently, probabilistic latent variable models provide an important tool, because they can include explicit models of the ecological phenomenon of interest and the process by which it is observed. However, existing latent variable methods rely on hand-formulated parametric models, which are expensive to design and require extensive preprocessing of the data. Nonparametric methods (such as regression trees) automate these decisions and produce highly accurate models. However, existing tree methods learn direct mappings from inputs to outputs — they cannot be applied to latent variable models. This paper describes a methodology for integrating nonparametric tree methods into probabilistic latent variable models by extending functional gradient boosting. The approach is presented in the context of occupancy-detection (OD) modeling, where the goal is to model the distribution of a species from imperfect detections. Experiments on 12 real and 3 synthetic bird species compare standard and tree-boosted OD models (latent variable models) with standard and tree-boosted logistic regression models (without latent structure). All methods perform similarly when predicting the observed variables, but the OD models learn better representations of the latent process. Most importantly, tree-boosted OD models learn the best latent representations when nonlinearities and interactions are present.

Plants can have positive effects on each other in numerous ways, including protection from harsh environmental conditions. This phenomenon, known as facilitation, occurs in water-stressed environments when shade from larger shrubs protects smaller annuals from harsh sun, enabling them to exist on scarce water. The topic of this paper is a model of this phenomenon that allows search algorithms to find residential landscape designs that incorporate facilitation to conserve water. This model is based in botany; it captures the growth requirements of real plant species in a fitness function, but also includes a penalty term in that function that encourages facilitative interactions with other plants on the landscape. To evaluate the effectiveness of this approach, two search strategies--simulated annealing and agent-based search--were applied to models of different collections of simulated plant types and landscapes with different light distributions. These two search strategies produced landscape designs with different spatial distributions of the larger plants. All designs exhibited facilitation and lower water use than designs where facilitation was not included.

Consider the problem of protecting endangered species by selecting patches of land to be used for conservation purposes. Typically, the availability of patches changes over time, and recommendations must be made dynamically. This is a challenging prototypical example of a sequential optimization problem under uncertainty in computational sustainability. Existing techniques do not scale to problems of realistic size. In this paper, we develop an efficient algorithm for adaptively making recommendations for dynamic conservation planning, and prove that it obtains near-optimal performance. We further evaluate our approach on a detailed reserve design case study of conservation planning for three rare species in the Pacific Northwest of the United States.

Looking ahead to the time when autonomous cars will be common, Dresner and Stone proposed a multiagent systems-based intersection control protocol called Autonomous Intersection Management (AIM). They showed that by leveraging the capacities of autonomous vehicles it is possible to dramatically reduce the time wasted in traffic, and therefore also fuel consumption and air pollution. The proposed protocol, however, handles reservation requests one at a time and does not prioritize reservations according to their relative priorities and waiting times, causing potentially large inequalities in granting reservations. For example, at an intersection between a main street and an alley, vehicles from the alley can take an excessively long time to get reservations to enter the intersection, causing a waste of time and fuel. The same is true in a network of intersections, in which gridlock may occur and cause traffic congestion. In this paper, we introduce the batch processing of reservations in AIM to enforce liveness properties in intersections and analyze the conditions under which no vehicle will get stuck in traffic. Our experimental results show that our prioritizing schemes outperform previous intersection control protocols in unbalanced traffic.