In recent years extreme value mixture models have been proposed as a combination of a distribution with a "bulk part" below threshold and a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) in the tail. Different distributions have been proposed for modelling the "bulk part" where the threshold is a parameter to be estimated. The first approach which allow us a transition between the bulk and tail parts is provided by Frigessi, Haug & Harvard (2003). Frigessi et al. (2003) uses a Weibull distribution in the bulk part, a GPD for the tail and the location-scale Cauchy cdf in the transition function and the authors use maximum likelihood estimation. However in the Frigessi et al. (2003) approach maximum likelihood estimation in the bulk part could produce multiple modes and hence some identifiability problems. Behrens, Lopez & Gammerman (2004) and Carreu & Bengio (2009) consider Gamma and Normal distributions respectively in the bulk part.

The interest in brain-like computation has led to the design of a plethora of innovative neuromorphic systems. Individually, spiking neural networks (SNNs), event-driven simulation and digital hardware neuromorphic systems get a lot of attention. Despite the popularity of event-driven SNNs in software, very few digital hardware architectures are found. This is because existing hardware solutions for event management scale badly with the number of events. This paper introduces the structured heap queue, a pipelined digital hardware data structure, and demonstrates its suitability for event management. The structured heap queue scales gracefully with the number of events, allowing the efficient implementation of large scale digital hardware event-driven SNNs. The scaling is linear for memory, logarithmic for logic resources and constant for processing time. The use of the structured heap queue is demonstrated on field-programmable gate array (FPGA) with an image segmentation experiment and a SNN of 65~536 neurons and 513~184 synapses. Events can be processed at the rate of 1 every 7 clock cycles and a 406$\times$158 pixel image is segmented in 200 ms.

The causal inference literature has provided a clear formal definition of confounding expressed in terms of counterfactual independence. The literature has not, however, come to any consensus on a formal definition of a confounder, as it has given priority to the concept of confounding over that of a confounder. We consider a number of candidate definitions arising from various more informal statements made in the literature. We consider the properties satisfied by each candidate definition, principally focusing on (i) whether under the candidate definition control for all "confounders" suffices to control for "confounding" and (ii) whether each confounder in some context helps eliminate or reduce confounding bias. Several of the candidate definitions do not have these two properties. Only one candidate definition of those considered satisfies both properties. We propose that a "confounder" be defined as a pre-exposure covariate C for which there exists a set of other covariates X such that effect of the exposure on the outcome is unconfounded conditional on (X,C) but such that for no proper subset of (X,C) is the effect of the exposure on the outcome unconfounded given the subset. We also provide a conditional analogue of the above definition; and we propose a variable that helps reduce bias but not eliminate bias be referred to as a "surrogate confounder." These definitions are closely related to those given by Robins and Morgenstern [Comput. Math. Appl. 14 (1987) 869-916]. The implications that hold among the various candidate definitions are discussed.

We present a new classification method for quasar identification in the EROS-2 and MACHO datasets based on a boosted version of Random Forest classifier. We use a set of variability features including parameters of a continuous auto regressive model. We prove that continuous auto regressive parameters are very important discriminators in the classification process. We create two training sets (one for EROS-2 and one for MACHO datasets) using known quasars found in the LMC. Our model's accuracy in both EROS-2 and MACHO training sets is about 90% precision and 86% recall, improving the state of the art models accuracy in quasar detection. We apply the model on the complete, including 28 million objects, EROS-2 and MACHO LMC datasets, finding 1160 and 2551 candidates respectively. To further validate our list of candidates, we crossmatched our list with a previous 663 known strong candidates, getting 74% of matches for MACHO and 40% in EROS-2. The main difference on matching level is because EROS-2 is a slightly shallower survey which translates to significantly lower signal-to-noise ratio lightcurves.

Abstract--The role of kernels is central to machine learning. Motivated by the importance of power-law distributions in statistical modeling, in this paper, we propose the notion of power-law kernels to investigate power-laws in learning problem. We propose two power-law kernels by generalizing Gaussian and Laplacian kernels. This generalization is based on distributions, arising out of maximization of a generalized information measure known as nonextensive entropy that is very well studied in statistical mechanics. We prove that the proposed kernels are positive definite, and provide some insights regarding the corresponding Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). We also study practical significance of both kernels in classification and regression, and present some simulation results.

So-called combined approaches answer a conjunctive query over a description logic ontology in three steps: first, they materialise certain consequences of the ontology and the data; second, they evaluate the query over the data; and third, they filter the result of the second phase to eliminate unsound answers. Such approaches were developed for various members of the DL-Lite and the EL families of languages, but none of them can handle ontologies containing nominals. In our work, we bridge this gap and present a combined query answering approach for ELHO---a logic that contains all features of the OWL 2 EL standard apart from transitive roles and complex role inclusions. This extension is nontrivial because nominals require equality reasoning, which introduces complexity into the first and the third step. Our empirical evaluation suggests that our technique is suitable for practical application, and so it provides a practical basis for conjunctive query answering in a large fragment of OWL 2 EL.

This paper presents the thesis that all learning agents of finite information size are limited by their informational structure in what goals they can efficiently learn to achieve in a complex environment. Evolutionary change is critical for creating the required structure for all learning agents in any complex environment. The thesis implies that there is no efficient universal learning algorithm. An agent can go past the learning limits imposed by its structure only by slow evolutionary change or blind search which in a very complex environment can only give an agent an inefficient universal learning capability that can work only in evolutionary timescales or improbable luck.

This paper presents a model-based planner called the Probabilistic Sulu Planner or the p-Sulu Planner, which controls stochastic systems in a goal directed manner within user-specified risk bounds. The objective of the p-Sulu Planner is to allow users to command continuous, stochastic systems, such as unmanned aerial and space vehicles, in a manner that is both intuitive and safe. To this end, we first develop a new plan representation called a chance-constrained qualitative state plan (CCQSP), through which users can specify the desired evolution of the plant state as well as the acceptable level of risk. An example of a CCQSP statement is ``go to A through B within 30 minutes, with less than 0.001% probability of failure." We then develop the p-Sulu Planner, which can tractably solve a CCQSP planning problem. In order to enable CCQSP planning, we develop the following two capabilities in this paper: 1) risk-sensitive planning with risk bounds, and 2) goal-directed planning in a continuous domain with temporal constraints. The first capability is to ensures that the probability of failure is bounded. The second capability is essential for the planner to solve problems with a continuous state space such as vehicle path planning. We demonstrate the capabilities of the p-Sulu Planner by simulations on two real-world scenarios: the path planning and scheduling of a personal aerial vehicle as well as the space rendezvous of an autonomous cargo spacecraft.

A fundamental question in Computer Science is understanding when a specific class of problems go from being computationally easy to hard. Because of its generality and applications, the problem of Boolean Satisfiability (aka SAT) is often used as a vehicle for investigating this question. A signal result from these studies is that the hardness of SAT problems exhibits a dramatic easy-to-hard phase transition with respect to the problem constrainedness. Past studies have however focused mostly on SAT instances generated using uniform random distributions, where all constraints are independently generated, and the problem variables are all considered of equal importance. These assumptions are unfortunately not satisfied by most real problems. Our project aims for a deeper understanding of hardness of SAT problems that arise in practice. We study two key questions: (i) How does easy-to-hard transition change with more realistic distributions that capture neighborhood sensitivity and rich-get-richer aspects of real problems and (ii) Can these changes be explained in terms of the network properties (such as node centrality and small-worldness) of the clausal networks of the SAT problems. Our results, based on extensive empirical studies and network analyses, provide important structural and computational insights into realistic SAT problems. Our extensive empirical studies show that SAT instances from realistic distributions do exhibit phase transition, but the transition occurs sooner (at lower values of constrainedness) than the instances from uniform random distribution. We show that this behavior can be explained in terms of their clausal network properties such as eigenvector centrality and small-worldness (measured indirectly in terms of the clustering coefficients and average node distance).

We describe an agent-based simulation of a fictional (but feasible) information trading business. The Gas Price Information Trader (GPIT) buys information about real-time gas prices in a metropolitan area from drivers and resells the information to drivers who need to refuel their vehicles. Our simulation uses real world geographic data, lifestyle-dependent driving patterns and vehicle models to create an agent-based model of the drivers. We use real world statistics of gas price fluctuation to create scenarios of temporal and spatial distribution of gas prices. The price of the information is determined on a case-by-case basis through a simple negotiation model. The trader and the customers are adapting their negotiation strategies based on their historical profits. We are interested in the general properties of the emerging information market: the amount of realizable profit and its distribution between the trader and customers, the business strategies necessary to keep the market operational (such as promotional deals), the price elasticity of demand and the impact of pricing strategies on the profit.