Scenario-based serious-games have become an important tool for teaching new skills and capabilities. An important factor in the development of such systems is reducing the time and cost overheads in manually creating content for these scenarios. To address this challenge, we present ScenarioGen, an automatic method for generating content about everyday activities through combining computer science techniques with the crowd. ScenarioGen uses the crowd in three different ways: to capture a database of scenarios of everyday activities, to generate a database of likely replacements for specific events within that scenario, and to evaluate the resulting scenarios. We evaluated ScenarioGen in 6 different content domains and found that it was consistently rated as coherent and consistent as the originally captured content. We also compared ScenarioGen's content to that created by traditional planning techniques. We found that both methods were equally effective in generating coherent and consistent scenarios, yet ScenarioGen's content was found to be more varied and easier to create.

The spread of epidemics and malware is commonly modeled by diffusion processes on networks. Protective interventions such as vaccinations or installing anti-virus software are used to contain their spread. Typically, each node in the network has to decide its own strategy of securing itself, and its benefit depends on which other nodes are secure, making this a natural game-theoretic setting. There has been a lot of work on network security game models, but most of the focus has been either on simplified epidemic models or homogeneous network structure. We develop a new formulation for an epidemic containment game, which relies on the characterization of the SIS model in terms of the spectral radius of the network. We show in this model that pure Nash equilibria (NE) always exist, and can be found by a best response strategy. We analyze the complexity of finding NE, and derive rigorous bounds on their costs and the Price of Anarchy or PoA (the ratio of the cost of the worst NE to the optimum social cost) in general graphs as well as in random graph models. In particular, for arbitrary power-law graphs with exponent $\beta>2$, we show that the PoA is bounded by $O(T^{2(\beta-1)})$, where $T=\gamma/\alpha$ is the ratio of the recovery rate to the transmission rate in the SIS model. We prove that this bound is tight up to a constant factor for the Chung-Lu random power-law graph model. We study the characteristics of Nash equilibria empirically in different real communication and infrastructure networks, and find that our analytical results can help explain some of the empirical observations.

We investigate synergy, or lack thereof, between agents in cooperative games, building on the popular notion of Shapley value. We think of a pair of agents as synergistic (resp., antagonistic) if the Shapley value of one agent when the other agent participates in a joint effort is higher (resp. lower) than when the other agent does not participate. Our main theoretical result is that any graph specifying synergistic and antagonistic pairs can arise even from a restricted class of cooperative games. We also study the computational complexity of determining whether a given pair of agents is synergistic. Finally, we use the concepts developed in the paper to uncover the structure of synergies in two real-world organizations, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

In portfolio selection, it often might be preferable to focus on a few top performing industries/sectors to beat the market. These top performing sectors however might change over time. In this paper, we propose an online portfolio selection algorithm that can take advantage of sector information through the use of a group sparsity inducing regularizer while making lazy updates to the portfolio. The lazy updates prevent changing ones portfolio too often which otherwise might incur huge transaction costs. The proposed formulation leads to a non-smooth constrained optimization problem at every step, with the constraint that the solution has to lie in a probability simplex. We propose an efficient primal-dual based alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm and demonstrate its effectiveness for the problem of online portfolio selection with sector information. We show that our algorithm OLU-GS has sub-linear regret w.r.t. the best fixed and best shifting solution in hindsight. We successfully establish the robustness and scalability of OLU-GS by performing extensive experiments on two real-world datasets.

The naturalness of qualitative reasoning suggests that qualitative representations might be an important component of the semantics of natural language. Prior work showed that frame-based representations of qualitative process theory constructs could indeed be extracted from natural language texts. That technique relied on the parser recognizing specific syntactic constructions, which had limited coverage. This paper describes a new approach, using narrative function to represent the higher-order relationships between the constituents of a sentence and between sentences in a discourse. We outline how narrative function combined with query-driven abduction enables the same kinds of information to be extracted from natural language texts. Moreover, we also show how the same technique can be used to extract type-level qualitative representations from text, and used to improve performance in playing a strategy game.

The action programming language GOLOG has been found useful for the control of autonomous agents such as mobile robots. In scenarios like these, tasks are often open-ended so that the respective control programs are non-terminating. Before deploying such programs on a robot, it is often desirable to verify that they meet certain requirements. For this purpose, Claßen and Lakemeyer recently introduced algorithms for the verification of temporal properties of GOLOG programs. However, given the expressiveness of GOLOG, their verification procedures are not guaranteed to terminate. In this paper, we show how decidability can be obtained by suitably restricting the underlying base logic, the effect axioms for primitive actions, and the use of actions within GOLOG programs. Moreover, we show that dropping any of these restrictions immediately leads to undecidability of the verification problem.

Recent advances in Programming by Example (PBE) have supported new applications to text editing, but existing approaches are limited to simple text strings. In this paper we address transformations in richly formatted documents, using an approach based on the idea of least general generalizations from inductive inference, which avoids the scalability issues faced by state-of-the-art PBE methods. We describe a novel domain specific language (DSL) that expresses transformations over XML structures describing richly formatted content, and a synthesis algorithm that generates a minimal program with respect to a natural subsumption ordering in our DSL. We present experimental results on tasks collected from online help forums, showing an average of 4.17 examples required for task completion.

"Fraudulent support phones" refers to the misleading telephone numbers placed on Web pages or other media that claim to provide services with which they are not associated. Most fraudulent support phone information is found on search engine result pages (SERPs), and such information substantially degrades the search engine user experience. In this paper, we propose an approach to identify fraudulent support telephone numbers on the Web based on the co-occurrence relations between telephone numbers that appear on SERPs. We start from a small set of seed official support phone numbers and seed fraudulent numbers. Then, we construct a co-occurrence graph according to the co-occurrence relationships of the telephone numbers that appear on Web pages. Additionally, we take the page layout information into consideration on the assumption that telephone numbers that appear in nearby page blocks should be regarded as more closely related. Finally, we develop a propagation algorithm to diffuse the trust scores of seed official support phone numbers and the distrust scores of the seed fraudulent numbers on the co-occurrence graph to detect additional fraudulent numbers. Experimental results based on over 1.5 million SERPs produced by a popular Chinese commercial search engine indicate that our approach outperforms TrustRank, Anti-TrustRank and Good-Bad Rank algorithms by achieving an AUC value of over 0.90.

Social influence has been widely accepted to explain people's cascade behaviors and further utilized in many related applications. However, few of existing work studied the direct, microscopic and temporal impact of social influence on people's behaviors in detail. In this paper we concentrate on the behavior modeling and systematically formulate the family of behavior propagation models (BPMs) including the static models (BP and IBP), and their discrete temporal variants (DBP and DIBP). To address the temporal dynamics of behavior propagation over continuous time, we propose a continuous temporal interest-aware behavior propagation model, called CIBP. As a new member of the BPM family, CIBP exploits the continuous-temporal functions (CTFs) to model the fully-continuous dynamic variance of social influence over time. Experiments on real-world datasets evaluated the family of BPMs and demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Data quality is a common source of concern for large-scale citizen science projects like eBird. In the case of eBird, a major cause of poor quality data is the misidentification of bird species by inexperienced contributors. A proactive approach for improving data quality is to discover commonly misidentified bird species and to teach inexperienced birders the differences between these species. To accomplish this goal, we develop a latent variable graphical model that can identify groups of bird species that are often confused for each other by eBird participants. Our model is a multi-species extension of the classic occupancy-detection model in the ecology literature. This multi-species extension requires a structure learning step as well as a computationally expensive parameter learning stage which we make efficient through a variational approximation. We show that our model can not only discover groups of misidentified species, but by including these misidentifications in the model, it can also achieve more accurate predictions of both species occupancy and detection.