Under general assumptions on the target distribution $p^\star$, we establish a sharp Lipschitz regularity theory for flow-matching vector fields and diffusion-model scores, with optimal dependence on time and dimension. As applications, we obtain Wasserstein discretization bounds for Euler-type samplers in dimension $d$: with $N$ discretization steps, the error achieves the optimal rate $\sqrt{d}/N$ up to logarithmic factors. Moreover, the constants do not deteriorate exponentially with the spatial extent of $p^\star$. We also show that the one-sided Lipschitz control yields a globally Lipschitz transport map from the standard Gaussian to $p^\star$, which implies Poincaré and log-Sobolev inequalities for a broad class of probability measures.

Multimodal representation learning is commonly built on a shared-private decomposition, treating latent information as either common to all modalities or specific to one. This binary view is often inadequate: many factors are shared by only subsets of modalities, and ignoring such partial sharing can over-align unrelated signals and obscure complementary information. We propose Hierarchical Contrastive Learning (HCL), a framework that learns globally shared, partially shared, and modality-specific representations within a unified model. HCL combines a hierarchical latent-variable formulation with structural sparsity and a structure-aware contrastive objective that aligns only modalities that genuinely share a latent factor. Under uncorrelated latent variables, we prove identifiability of the hierarchical decomposition, establish recovery guarantees for the loading matrices, and derive parameter estimation and excess-risk bounds for downstream prediction. Simulations show accurate recovery of hierarchical structure and effective selection of task-relevant components. On multimodal electronic health records, HCL yields more informative representations and consistently improves predictive performance.

The classical Gaussian mixture model assumes homogeneity within clusters, an assumption that often fails in real-world data where observations naturally exhibit varying scales or intensities. To address this, we introduce the individual-heterogeneous sub-Gaussian mixture model, a flexible framework that assigns each observation its own heterogeneity parameter, thereby explicitly capturing the heterogeneity inherent in practical applications. Built upon this model, we propose an efficient spectral method that provably achieves exact recovery of the true cluster labels under mild separation conditions, even in high-dimensional settings where the number of features far exceeds the number of samples. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing clustering algorithms, including those designed for classical Gaussian mixture models.

We introduce the Hiremath Early Detection (HED) Score, a principled, measure-theoretic evaluation criterion for quantifying the time-value of information in systems operating over non-stationary stochastic processes subject to abrupt regime transitions. Existing evaluation paradigms, chiefly the ROC/AUC framework and its downstream variants, are temporally agnostic: they assign identical credit to a detection at t + 1 and a detection at t + tau for arbitrarily large tau. This indifference to latency is a fundamental inadequacy in time-critical domains including cyber-physical security, algorithmic surveillance, and epidemiological monitoring. The HED Score resolves this by integrating a baseline-neutral, exponentially decaying kernel over the posterior probability stream of a target regime, beginning precisely at the onset of the regime shift. The resulting scalar simultaneously encodes detection acuity, temporal lead, and pre-transition calibration quality. We prove that the HED Score satisfies three axiomatic requirements: (A1) Temporal Monotonicity, (A2) Invariance to Pre-Attack Bias, and (A3) Sensitivity Decomposability. We further demonstrate that the HED Score admits a natural parametric family indexed by the Hiremath Decay Constant (lambda_H), whose domain-specific calibration constitutes the Hiremath Standard Table. As an empirical vehicle, we present PARD-SSM (Probabilistic Anomaly and Regime Detection via Switching State-Space Models), which couples fractional Stochastic Differential Equations (fSDEs) with a Switching Linear Dynamical System (S-LDS) inference backend. On the NSL-KDD benchmark, PARD-SSM achieves a HED Score of 0.0643, representing a 388.8 percent improvement over a Random Forest baseline (0.0132), with statistical significance confirmed via block-bootstrap resampling (p < 0.001). We propose the HED Score as the successor evaluation standard to ROC/AUC.

The ISOKANN (Invariant Subspaces of Koopman Operators Learned by Artificial Neural Networks) framework provides a data-driven route to extract collective variables (CVs) and effective dynamics from complex molecular systems. In this work, we integrate the theoretical foundation of Koopman operators with Krylov-like subspace algorithms, and reduced dynamical modeling to build a coherent picture of how to describe metastable transitions in high-dimensional systems based on CVs. Starting from the identification of CVs based on dominant invariant subspaces, we derive the corresponding effective dynamics on the latent space and connect these to transition rates and times, committor functions, and transition pathways. The combination of Koopman-based learning and reduced-dimensional effective dynamics yields a principled framework for computing transition rates and pathways from simulation data. Numerical experiments on one-, two-, and three-dimensional benchmark potentials illustrate the ability of ISOKANN to reconstruct the coarse-grained kinetics and reproduce transition times across enthalpic and entropic barriers.

Sampling physical systems with rough energy landscapes is hindered by rare events and metastable trapping. While Boltzmann generators already offer a solution, their reliance on the reverse Kullback--Leibler divergence frequently induces catastrophic mode collapse, missing specific modes in multi-modal distributions. Here, we introduce the Jeffreys Flow, a robust generative framework that mitigates this failure by distilling empirical sampling data from Parallel Tempering trajectories using the symmetric Jeffreys divergence. This formulation effectively balances local target-seeking precision with global modes coverage. We show that minimizing Jeffreys divergence suppresses mode collapse and structurally corrects inherent inaccuracies via distillation of the empirical reference data. We demonstrate the framework's scalability and accuracy on highly non-convex multidimensional benchmarks, including the systematic correction of stochastic gradient biases in Replica Exchange Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics and the massive acceleration of exact importance sampling in Path Integral Monte Carlo for quantum thermal states.

Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is traditionally formulated as a nested optimization and reliability problem. Although surrogate models are generally employed to improve efficiency, the approach remains computationally prohibitive in high-dimensional settings. This paper proposes a novel RBDO framework based on a stochastic simulator viewpoint, in which the deterministic limit-state function and the uncertainty in the model inputs are combined into a unified stochastic representation. Under this formulation, the system response conditioned on a given design is modeled directly through its output distribution, rather than through an explicit limit-state function. Stochastic emulators are constructed in the design space to approximate the conditional response distribution, enabling the semi-analytical evaluation of failure probabilities or associated quantiles without resorting to Monte Carlo simulation. Two classes of stochastic emulators are investigated, namely generalized lambda models and stochastic polynomial chaos expansions. Both approaches provide a deterministic mapping between design variables and reliability constraints, which breaks the classical double-loop structure of RBDO and allows the use of standard deterministic optimization algorithms. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated on a set of benchmark problems with dimensionality ranging from low to very high, including a case with stochastic excitation. The results are compared against a Kriging-based approach formulated in the full input space. The proposed method yields substantial computational gains, particularly in high-dimensional settings. While its efficiency is comparable to Kriging for low-dimensional problems, it significantly outperforms Kriging as the dimensionality increases.

Speculative sampling (SpS) has been successful in accelerating the decoding throughput of auto-regressive large language models by leveraging smaller draft models. SpS strictly enforces the generated distribution to match that of the verifier LLM. This is unnecessarily restrictive as slight variations of the verifier's distribution, such as sampling with top-$k$ or temperature, would also be acceptable. Typical acceptance sampling (TAS) alleviates this issue by accepting more tokens using entropy-based heuristics. However, this approach distorts the verifier distribution, potentially degrading output quality when the verifier encodes critical information. In this work, we formalize the speculative sampling algorithm through the lens of constrained optimization. Based on this formulation, we propose Cactus (constrained acceptance speculative sampling), a method that guarantees controlled divergence from the verifier distribution and increasing acceptance rates. Empirical results across a wide range of benchmarks confirm the effectiveness of our approach.

Blind-spot mass is a Good-Turing framework for quantifying deployment coverage risk in machine learning. In modern ML systems, operational state distributions are often heavy-tailed, implying that a long tail of valid but rare states is structurally under-supported in finite training and evaluation data. This creates a form of 'coverage blindness': models can appear accurate on standard test sets yet remain unreliable across large regions of the deployment state space. We propose blind-spot mass B_n(tau), a deployment metric estimating the total probability mass assigned to states whose empirical support falls below a threshold tau. B_n(tau) is computed using Good-Turing unseen-species estimation and yields a principled estimate of how much of the operational distribution lies in reliability-critical, under-supported regimes. We further derive a coverage-imposed accuracy ceiling, decomposing overall performance into supported and blind components and separating capacity limits from data limits. We validate the framework in wearable human activity recognition (HAR) using wrist-worn inertial data. We then replicate the same analysis in the MIMIC-IV hospital database with 275 admissions, where the blind-spot mass curve converges to the same 95% at tau = 5 across clinical state abstractions. This replication across structurally independent domains - differing in modality, feature space, label space, and application - shows that blind-spot mass is a general ML methodology for quantifying combinatorial coverage risk, not an application-specific artifact. Blind-spot decomposition identifies which activities or clinical regimes dominate risk, providing actionable guidance for industrial practitioners on targeted data collection, normalization/renormalization, and physics- or domain-informed constraints for safer deployment.

We develop a semi-parametric state-space model for time-series data with latent regime transitions. Classical Markov-switching models use fixed parametric transition functions, such as logistic or probit links, which restrict flexibility when transitions depend on nonlinear and context-dependent effects. We replace this assumption with learned functions $f_0, f_1 \in \calH$, where $\calH$ is either a reproducing kernel Hilbert space or a spline approximation space, and define transition probabilities as $p_{jk,t} = \sigmoid(f(\bx_{t-1}))$. The transition functions are estimated jointly with emission parameters using a generalized Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The E-step uses the standard forward-backward recursion, while the M-step reduces to a penalized regression problem with weights from smoothed occupation measures. We establish identifiability conditions and provide a consistency argument for the resulting estimators. Experiments on synthetic data show improved recovery of nonlinear transition dynamics compared to parametric baselines. An empirical study on financial time series demonstrates improved regime classification and earlier detection of transition events.