Multiple federated learning (FL) methods are proposed for traffic flow forecasting (TFF) to avoid heavy-transmission and privacy-leaking concerns resulting from the disclosure of raw data in centralized methods. However, these FL methods adopt offline learning which may yield subpar performance, when concept drift occurs, i.e., distributions of historical and future data vary. Online learning can detect concept drift during model training, thus more applicable to TFF. Nevertheless, the existing federated online learning method for TFF fails to efficiently solve the concept drift problem and causes tremendous computing and communication overhead. Therefore, we propose a novel method named Resource-Efficient Federated Online Learning (REFOL) for TFF, which guarantees prediction performance in a communication-lightweight and computation-efficient way. Specifically, we design a data-driven client participation mechanism to detect the occurrence of concept drift and determine clients' participation necessity. Subsequently, we propose an adaptive online optimization strategy, which guarantees prediction performance and meanwhile avoids meaningless model updates. Then, a graph convolution-based model aggregation mechanism is designed, aiming to assess participants' contribution based on spatial correlation without importing extra communication and computing consumption on clients. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets to demonstrate the superiority of REFOL in terms of prediction improvement and resource economization.

We investigate the concept of algorithmic replicability introduced by Impagliazzo et al. 2022, Ghazi et al. 2021, Ahn et al. 2024 in an online setting. In our model, the input sequence received by the online learner is generated from time-varying distributions chosen by an adversary (obliviously). Our objective is to design low-regret online algorithms that, with high probability, produce the exact same sequence of actions when run on two independently sampled input sequences generated as described above. We refer to such algorithms as adversarially replicable. Previous works (such as Esfandiari et al. 2022) explored replicability in the online setting under inputs generated independently from a fixed distribution; we term this notion as iid-replicability. Our model generalizes to capture both adversarial and iid input sequences, as well as their mixtures, which can be modeled by setting certain distributions as point-masses. We demonstrate adversarially replicable online learning algorithms for online linear optimization and the experts problem that achieve sub-linear regret. Additionally, we propose a general framework for converting an online learner into an adversarially replicable one within our setting, bounding the new regret in terms of the original algorithm's regret. We also present a nearly optimal (in terms of regret) iid-replicable online algorithm for the experts problem, highlighting the distinction between the iid and adversarial notions of replicability. Finally, we establish lower bounds on the regret (in terms of the replicability parameter and time) that any replicable online algorithm must incur.

Recently, several universal methods have been proposed for online convex optimization, and attain minimax rates for multiple types of convex functions simultaneously. However, they need to design and optimize one surrogate loss for each type of functions, making it difficult to exploit the structure of the problem and utilize existing algorithms. In this paper, we propose a simple strategy for universal online convex optimization, which avoids these limitations. The key idea is to construct a set of experts to process the original online functions, and deploy a meta-algorithm over the linearized losses to aggregate predictions from experts. Specifically, the meta-algorithm is required to yield a second-order bound with excess losses, so that it can leverage strong convexity and exponential concavity to control the meta-regret. In this way, our strategy inherits the theoretical guarantee of any expert designed for strongly convex functions and exponentially concave functions, up to a double logarithmic factor. As a result, we can plug in off-the-shelf online solvers as black-box experts to deliver problem-dependent regret bounds. For general convex functions, it maintains the minimax optimality and also achieves a small-loss bound. Furthermore, we extend our universal strategy to online composite optimization, where the loss function comprises a time-varying function and a fixed regularizer. To deal with the composite loss functions, we employ a meta-algorithm based on the optimistic online learning framework, which not only possesses a second-order bound, but also can utilize estimations for upcoming loss functions. With appropriate configurations, we demonstrate that the additional regularizer does not contribute to the meta-regret, thus maintaining the universality in the composite setting.

We consider estimation of a linear functional of the treatment effect using adaptively collected data. This task finds a variety of applications including the off-policy evaluation (\textsf{OPE}) in contextual bandits, and estimation of the average treatment effect (\textsf{ATE}) in causal inference. While a certain class of augmented inverse propensity weighting (\textsf{AIPW}) estimators enjoys desirable asymptotic properties including the semi-parametric efficiency, much less is known about their non-asymptotic theory with adaptively collected data. To fill in the gap, we first establish generic upper bounds on the mean-squared error of the class of AIPW estimators that crucially depends on a sequentially weighted error between the treatment effect and its estimates. Motivated by this, we also propose a general reduction scheme that allows one to produce a sequence of estimates for the treatment effect via online learning to minimize the sequentially weighted estimation error. To illustrate this, we provide three concrete instantiations in (\romannumeral 1) the tabular case; (\romannumeral 2) the case of linear function approximation; and (\romannumeral 3) the case of general function approximation for the outcome model. We then provide a local minimax lower bound to show the instance-dependent optimality of the \textsf{AIPW} estimator using no-regret online learning algorithms.

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have greatly contributed to making education more accessible. However, many MOOCs maintain a rigid, one-size-fits-all structure that fails to address the diverse needs and backgrounds of individual learners. Learning path personalization aims to address this limitation, by tailoring sequences of educational content to optimize individual student learning outcomes. Existing approaches, however, often require either massive student interaction data or extensive expert annotation, limiting their broad application. In this study, we introduce a novel data-efficient framework for learning path personalization that operates without expert annotation. Our method employs a flexible recommender system pre-trained with reinforcement learning on a dataset of raw course materials. Through experiments on semi-synthetic data, we show that this pre-training stage substantially improves data-efficiency in a range of adaptive learning scenarios featuring new educational materials. This opens up new perspectives for the design of foundation models for adaptive learning.

In this work, we initiate the study of Hamiltonian learning for positive temperature bosonic Gaussian states, the quantum generalization of the widely studied problem of learning Gaussian graphical models. We obtain efficient protocols, both in sample and computational complexity, for the task of inferring the parameters of their underlying quadratic Hamiltonian under the assumption of bounded temperature, squeezing, displacement and maximal degree of the interaction graph. Our protocol only requires heterodyne measurements, which are often experimentally feasible, and has a sample complexity that scales logarithmically with the number of modes. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to learn the underlying interaction graph in a similar setting and sample complexity. Taken together, our results put the status of the quantum Hamiltonian learning problem for continuous variable systems in a much more advanced state when compared to spins, where state-of-the-art results are either unavailable or quantitatively inferior to ours. In addition, we use our techniques to obtain the first results on learning Gaussian states in trace distance with a quadratic scaling in precision and polynomial in the number of modes, albeit imposing certain restrictions on the Gaussian states. Our main technical innovations are several continuity bounds for the covariance and Hamiltonian matrix of a Gaussian state, which are of independent interest, combined with what we call the local inversion technique. In essence, the local inversion technique allows us to reliably infer the Hamiltonian of a Gaussian state by only estimating in parallel submatrices of the covariance matrix whose size scales with the desired precision, but not the number of modes. This way we bypass the need to obtain precise global estimates of the covariance matrix, controlling the sample complexity.

Differential privacy (DP) is a formal notion that restricts the privacy leakage of an algorithm when running on sensitive data, in which privacy-utility trade-off is one of the central problems in private data analysis. In this work, we investigate the fundamental limits of differential privacy in online learning algorithms and present evidence that separates three types of constraints: no DP, pure DP, and approximate DP. We first describe a hypothesis class that is online learnable under approximate DP but not online learnable under pure DP under the adaptive adversarial setting. This indicates that approximate DP must be adopted when dealing with adaptive adversaries. We then prove that any private online learner must make an infinite number of mistakes for almost all hypothesis classes. This essentially generalizes previous results and shows a strong separation between private and non-private settings since a finite mistake bound is always attainable (as long as the class is online learnable) when there is no privacy requirement.

We consider the problem of multiclass transductive online learning when the number of labels can be unbounded. Previous works by Ben-David et al. [1997] and Hanneke et al. [2023b] only consider the case of binary and finite label spaces, respectively. The latter work determined that their techniques fail to extend to the case of unbounded label spaces, and they pose the question of characterizing the optimal mistake bound for unbounded label spaces. We answer this question by showing that a new dimension, termed the Level-constrained Littlestone dimension, characterizes online learnability in this setting. Along the way, we show that the trichotomy of possible minimax rates of the expected number of mistakes established by Hanneke et al. [2023b] for finite label spaces in the realizable setting continues to hold even when the label space is unbounded. In particular, if the learner plays for $T \in \mathbb{N}$ rounds, its minimax expected number of mistakes can only grow like $\Theta(T)$, $\Theta(\log T)$, or $\Theta(1)$. To prove this result, we give another combinatorial dimension, termed the Level-constrained Branching dimension, and show that its finiteness characterizes constant minimax expected mistake-bounds. The trichotomy is then determined by a combination of the Level-constrained Littlestone and Branching dimensions. Quantitatively, our upper bounds improve upon existing multiclass upper bounds in Hanneke et al. [2023b] by removing the dependence on the label set size. In doing so, we explicitly construct learning algorithms that can handle extremely large or unbounded label spaces. A key and novel component of our algorithm is a new notion of shattering that exploits the sequential nature of transductive online learning. Finally, we complete our results by proving expected regret bounds in the agnostic setting, extending the result of Hanneke et al. [2023b].

First-order methods (FOMs) are arguably the most scalable algorithms for equilibrium computation in large extensive-form games. To operationalize these methods, a distance-generating function, acting as a regularizer for the strategy space, must be chosen. The ratio between the strong convexity modulus and the diameter of the regularizer is a key parameter in the analysis of FOMs. A natural question is then: what is the optimal distance-generating function for extensive-form decision spaces? In this paper, we make a number of contributions, ultimately establishing that the weight-one dilated entropy (DilEnt) distance-generating function is optimal up to logarithmic factors. The DilEnt regularizer is notable due to its iterate-equivalence with Kernelized OMWU (KOMWU) -- the algorithm with state-of-the-art dependence on the game tree size in extensive-form games -- when used in conjunction with the online mirror descent (OMD) algorithm. However, the standard analysis for OMD is unable to establish such a result; the only current analysis is by appealing to the iterate equivalence to KOMWU. We close this gap by introducing a pair of primal-dual treeplex norms, which we contend form the natural analytic viewpoint for studying the strong convexity of DilEnt. Using these norm pairs, we recover the diameter-to-strong-convexity ratio that predicts the same performance as KOMWU. Along with a new regret lower bound for online learning in sequence-form strategy spaces, we show that this ratio is nearly optimal. Finally, we showcase our analytic techniques by refining the analysis of Clairvoyant OMD when paired with DilEnt, establishing an $\mathcal{O}(n \log |\mathcal{V}| \log T/T)$ approximation rate to coarse correlated equilibrium in $n$-player games, where $|\mathcal{V}|$ is the number of reduced normal-form strategies of the players, establishing the new state of the art.

Online learning methods, like the seminal Passive-Aggressive (PA) classifier, are still highly effective for high-dimensional streaming data, out-of-core processing, and other throughput-sensitive applications. Many such algorithms rely on fast adaptation to individual errors as a key to their convergence. While such algorithms enjoy low theoretical regret, in real-world deployment they can be sensitive to individual outliers that cause the algorithm to over-correct. When such outliers occur at the end of the data stream, this can cause the final solution to have unexpectedly low accuracy. We design a weighted reservoir sampling (WRS) approach to obtain a stable ensemble model from the sequence of solutions without requiring additional passes over the data, hold-out sets, or a growing amount of memory. Our key insight is that good solutions tend to be error-free for more iterations than bad solutions, and thus, the number of passive rounds provides an estimate of a solution's relative quality. Our reservoir thus contains $K$ previous intermediate weight vectors with high survival times. We demonstrate our WRS approach on the Passive-Aggressive Classifier (PAC) and First-Order Sparse Online Learning (FSOL), where our method consistently and significantly outperforms the unmodified approach. We show that the risk of the ensemble classifier is bounded with respect to the regret of the underlying online learning method.