We introduce an efficient algorithmic framework for model selection in online learning, also known as parameter-free online learning. Departing from previous work, which has focused on highly structured function classes such as nested balls in Hilbert space, we propose a generic meta-algorithm framework that achieves online model selection oracle inequalities under minimal structural assumptions. We give the first computationally efficient parameter-free algorithms that work in arbitrary Banach spaces under mild smoothness assumptions; previous results applied only to Hilbert spaces. We further derive new oracle inequalities for matrix classes, non-nested convex sets, and $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ with generic regularizers. Finally, we generalize these results by providing oracle inequalities for arbitrary non-linear classes in the online supervised learning model. These results are all derived through a unified meta-algorithm scheme using a novel "multi-scale" algorithm for prediction with expert advice based on random playout, which may be of independent interest.

Most online optimization algorithms focus on one of two things: performing well in adversarial settings by adapting to unknown data parameters (such as Lipschitz constants), typically achieving $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret, or performing well in stochastic settings where they can leverage some structure in the losses (such as strong convexity), typically achieving $O(\log(T))$ regret. Algorithms that focus on the former problem hitherto achieved $O(\sqrt{T})$ in the stochastic setting rather than $O(\log(T))$. Here we introduce an online optimization algorithm that achieves $O(\log^4(T))$ regret in a wide class of stochastic settings while gracefully degrading to the optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret in adversarial settings (up to logarithmic factors). Our algorithm does not require any prior knowledge about the data or tuning of parameters to achieve superior performance.

We study a variant of online linear optimization where the player receives a hint about the loss function at the beginning of each round. The hint is given in the form of a vector that is weakly correlated with the loss vector on that round. We show that the player can benefit from such a hint if the set of feasible actions is sufficiently round. Specifically, if the set is strongly convex, the hint can be used to guarantee a regret of O(log(T)), and if the set is q-uniformly convex for q\in(2,3), the hint can be used to guarantee a regret of o(sqrt{T}). In contrast, we establish Omega(sqrt{T}) lower bounds on regret when the set of feasible actions is a polyhedron.

We study online learning with the general notion of transductive regret, that is regret with modification rules applying to expert sequences (as opposed to single experts) that are representable by weighted finite-state transducers. We show how transductive regret generalizes existing notions of regret, including: (1) external regret; (2) internal regret; (3) swap regret; and (4) conditional swap regret. We present a general and efficient online learning algorithm for minimizing transductive regret. We further extend that to design efficient algorithms for the time-selection and sleeping expert settings. A by-product of our study is an algorithm for swap regret, which, under mild assumptions, is more efficient than existing ones, and a substantially more efficient algorithm for time selection swap regret.

We develop a nonparametric and online learning algorithm that estimates the triggering functions of a multivariate Hawkes process (MHP). The approach we take approximates the triggering function $f_{i,j}(t)$ by functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), and maximizes a time-discretized version of the log-likelihood, with Tikhonov regularization. Theoretically, our algorithm achieves an $\calO(\log T)$ regret bound. Numerical results show that our algorithm offers a competing performance to that of the nonparametric batch learning algorithm, with a run time comparable to the parametric online learning algorithm.

We study the online learning problem of a bidder who participates in repeated auctions. With the goal of maximizing his T-period payoff, the bidder determines the optimal allocation of his budget among his bids for $K$ goods at each period. As a bidding strategy, we propose a polynomial-time algorithm, inspired by the dynamic programming approach to the knapsack problem. The proposed algorithm, referred to as dynamic programming on discrete set (DPDS), achieves a regret order of $O(\sqrt{T\log{T}})$. By showing that the regret is lower bounded by $\Omega(\sqrt{T})$ for any strategy, we conclude that DPDS is order optimal up to a $\sqrt{\log{T}}$ term. We evaluate the performance of DPDS empirically in the context of virtual trading in wholesale electricity markets by using historical data from the New York market. Empirical results show that DPDS consistently outperforms benchmark heuristic methods that are derived from machine learning and online learning approaches.

Bill Gates proclaimed in a recent graduation ceremony, that artificial intelligence (AI), energy, and bio science are three most exciting and rewarding career choices today's young college graduates can choose from. I have come to believe strongly that some of the most important questions of our generation - related to sustainability, energy generation and distribution, transportation, access to basic amenities of life etc., are dependent on how intelligently we can mix the the first two branches of knowledge Mr. Gates mentions. In other words, the world of physical electronics (semiconductor industry comprises a central portion of that world), must do more to embrace fully the fruits of information technology and new developments in AI or data science. I wanted to learn, but where to start? I am a semiconductor professional with 8 years of post-PhD experience in a top technology company.

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