Student dropout in distance learning remains a critical challenge, with profound societal and economic consequences. While classical machine learning models leverage structured socio-demographic and behavioral data, they often fail to capture the nuanced emotional and contextual factors embedded in unstructured student interactions. This paper introduces a transformative AI framework that redefines dropout prediction through three synergistic innovations: Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) for domain-specific sentiment analysis, prompt engineering to decode academic stressors,and cross-modal attention fusion to dynamically align textual, behavioral, and socio-demographic insights. By grounding sentiment analysis in a curated knowledge base of pedagogical content, our RAG-enhanced BERT model interprets student comments with unprecedented contextual relevance, while optimized prompts isolate indicators of academic distress (e.g., "isolation," "workload anxiety"). A cross-modal attention layer then fuses these insights with temporal engagement patterns, creating holistic risk pro-files. Evaluated on a longitudinal dataset of 4 423 students, the framework achieves 89% accuracy and an F1-score of 0.88, outperforming conventional models by 7% and reducing false negatives by 21%. Beyond prediction, the system generates interpretable interventions by retrieving contextually aligned strategies (e.g., mentorship programs for isolated learners). This work bridges the gap between predictive analytics and actionable pedagogy, offering a scalable solution to mitigate dropout risks in global education systems

--Students disengaging from their tasks can have serious long-term consequences, including academic drop-out. This is particularly relevant for students in distance education. One way to measure the level of disengagement in distance education is to observe participation in non-mandatory exercises in different online courses. In this paper, we detect student disengagement in the non-mandatory quizzes of 42 courses in four semesters from a distance-based university. We carefully identified the most informative student log data that could be extracted and processed from Moodle. Then, eight machine learning algorithms were trained and compared to obtain the highest possible prediction accuracy. Using the SHAP method, we developed an explainable machine learning framework that allows practitioners to better understand the decisions of the trained algorithm. The experimental results show a balanced accuracy of 91%, where about 85% of disengaged students were correctly detected. On top of the highly predictive performance and explainable framework, we provide a discussion on how to design a timely intervention to minimise disengagement from voluntary tasks in online learning. HE advent of distance education has made learning more flexible than ever before. Instead of having to attend classes and solve tasks at specific time, students are granted more freedom in choosing when to engage with their academic workload. This flexibility attracts many non-traditional student groups to higher education, including students that are employed outside of their studies, either fully or part-time. While deadlines are still set in place, students are responsible themselves for planning and time management, especially as far as non-mandatory tasks and exercises are concerned. This freedom can also lead to satisficing behaviour, meaning students only do the bare minimum to pass their courses (see e.g., [1], [2]). Bergamin are with the Institute for Research in Open-, Distance-and eLearning, Swiss Distance University of Applied Sciences, Brig, CH-3900, Switzerland (e-mail addresses: behnam.parsaeifard@ffhs.ch, N. Bergamin (e-mail address: nicole.bergamin@ffhs.ch) is with Department of Informatics, Swiss Distance University of Applied Sciences, Brig, CH-3900, Switzerland. Bergamin is also with the North-West University, Potchefstroom, 2531, South Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic is thought to have fostered this kind of behaviour even more [4]. Non-completion of voluntary tasks, such as optional quizzes, is a form of behavioural disengagement strongly linked to academic drop-out or attrition [5]-[8].

We use algorithmic methods from online learning to explore some important objects at the intersection of model theory and combinatorics, and find natural ways that algorithmic methods can detect and explain (and improve our understanding of) stable structure in the sense of model theory. The main theorem deals with existence of $ε$-excellent sets (which are key to the Stable Regularity Lemma, a theorem characterizing the appearance of irregular pairs in Szemerédi's celebrated Regularity Lemma). We prove that $ε$-excellent sets exist for any $ε< \frac{1}{2}$ in $k$-edge stable graphs in the sense of model theory (equivalently, Littlestone classes); earlier proofs had given this only for $ε< 1/{2^{2^k}}$ or so. We give two proofs: the first uses regret bounds from online learning, the second uses Boolean closure properties of Littlestone classes and sampling. We also give a version of the dynamic Sauer-Shelah-Perles lemma appropriate to this setting, related to definability of types. We conclude by characterizing stable/Littlestone classes as those supporting a certain abstract notion of majority: the proof shows that the two distinct, natural notions of majority, arising from measure and from dimension, densely often coincide.

Many e-learning platforms assert their ability or potential to improve students' self-regulated learning (SRL), however the cyclical and undirected nature of SRL theoretical models represent significant challenges for representation within contemporary machine learning frameworks. We apply SRL-informed features to trace data in order to advance modelling of students' SRL activities, to improve predictability and explainability regarding the causal effects of learning in an eLearning environment. We demonstrate that these features improve predictive accuracy and validate the value of further research into cyclic modelling techniques for SRL.

This work investigates the use of multimodal biometrics to detect distractions caused by smartphone use during tasks that require sustained attention, with a focus on computer-based online learning. Although the methods are applicable to various domains, such as autonomous driving, we concentrate on the challenges learners face in maintaining engagement amid internal (e.g., motivation), system-related (e.g., course design) and contextual (e.g., smartphone use) factors. Traditional learning platforms often lack detailed behavioral data, but Multimodal Learning Analytics (MMLA) and biosensors provide new insights into learner attention. We propose an AI-based approach that leverages physiological signals and head pose data to detect phone use. Our results show that single biometric signals, such as brain waves or heart rate, offer limited accuracy, while head pose alone achieves 87%. A multimodal model combining all signals reaches 91% accuracy, highlighting the benefits of integration. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of deploying these models for real-time support in online learning environments.

We consider optimal resource allocation for restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs) in unknown, non-stationary settings. RMABs are PSPACE-hard to solve optimally, even when all parameters are known. The Whittle index policy is known to achieve asymptotic optimality for a large class of such problems, while remaining computationally efficient. In many practical settings, however, the transition kernels required to compute the Whittle index are unknown and non-stationary. In this work, we propose an online learning algorithm for Whittle indices in this setting. Our algorithm first predicts current transition kernels by solving a linear optimization problem based on upper confidence bounds and empirical transition probabilities calculated from data over a sliding window. Then, it computes the Whittle index associated with the predicted transition kernels. We design these sliding windows and upper confidence bounds to guarantee sub-linear dynamic regret on the number of episodes $T$, under the condition that transition kernels change slowly over time (rate upper bounded by $ε=1/T^k$ with $k>0$). Furthermore, our proposed algorithm and regret analysis are designed to exploit prior domain knowledge and structural information of the RMABs to accelerate the learning process. Numerical results validate that our algorithm achieves superior performance in terms of lowest cumulative regret relative to baselines in non-stationary environments.

Adaptive Curriculum Sequencing (ACS) is essential for personalized online learning, yet current approaches struggle to balance complex educational constraints and maintain optimization stability. This paper proposes a Memetic Walrus Optimizer (MWO) that enhances optimization performance through three key innovations: (1) an expert-guided strategy with aging mechanism that improves escape from local optima; (2) an adaptive control signal framework that dynamically balances exploration and exploitation; and (3) a three-tier priority mechanism for generating educationally meaningful sequences. We formulate ACS as a multi-objective optimization problem considering concept coverage, time constraints, and learning style compatibility. Experiments on the OULAD dataset demonstrate MWO's superior performance, achieving 95.3% difficulty progression rate (compared to 87.2% in baseline methods) and significantly better convergence stability (standard deviation of 18.02 versus 28.29-696.97 in competing algorithms). Additional validation on benchmark functions confirms MWO's robust optimization capability across diverse scenarios. The results demonstrate MWO's effectiveness in generating personalized learning sequences while maintaining computational efficiency and solution quality.

Non-stationary online learning has drawn much attention in recent years. Despite considerable progress, dynamic regret minimization has primarily focused on convex functions, leaving the functions with stronger curvature (e.g., squared or logistic loss) underexplored. In this work, we address this gap by showing that the regret can be substantially improved by leveraging the concept of mixability, a property that generalizes exp-concavity to effectively capture loss curvature. Let $d$ denote the dimensionality and $P_T$ the path length of comparators that reflects the environmental non-stationarity. We demonstrate that an exponential-weight method with fixed-share updates achieves an $\mathcal{O}(d T^{1/3} P_T^{2/3} \log T)$ dynamic regret for mixable losses, improving upon the best-known $\mathcal{O}(d^{10/3} T^{1/3} P_T^{2/3} \log T)$ result (Baby and Wang, 2021) in $d$. More importantly, this improvement arises from a simple yet powerful analytical framework that exploits the mixability, which avoids the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker-based analysis required by existing work.

The performance of an optimizer on large-scale deep learning models depends critically on fine-tuning the learning rate, often requiring an extensive grid search over base learning rates, schedules, and other hyperparameters. In this paper, we propose a principled framework called GALA (Gradient Alignment-based Learning rate Adaptation), which dynamically adjusts the learning rate by tracking the alignment between consecutive gradients and using a local curvature estimate. Guided by the convergence analysis, we formulate the problem of selecting the learning rate as a one-dimensional online learning problem. When paired with an online learning algorithm such as Follow-the-Regularized-Leader, our method produces a flexible, adaptive learning rate schedule that tends to increase when consecutive gradients are aligned and decrease otherwise. We establish a data-adaptive convergence rate for normalized SGD equipped with GALA in the smooth, nonconvex setting. Empirically, common optimizers such as SGD and Adam, when augmented with GALA, demonstrate robust performance across a wide range of initial learning rates and perform competitively without the need for tuning.

In this article, we present a novel multimodal feedback framework called MOSAIC-F, an acronym for a data-driven Framework that integrates Multimodal Learning Analytics (MMLA), Observations, Sensors, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Collaborative assessments for generating personalized feedback on student learning activities. This framework consists of four key steps. First, peers and professors' assessments are conducted through standardized rubrics (that include both quantitative and qualitative evaluations). Second, multimodal data are collected during learning activities, including video recordings, audio capture, gaze tracking, physiological signals (heart rate, motion data), and behavioral interactions. Third, personalized feedback is generated using AI, synthesizing human-based evaluations and data-based multimodal insights such as posture, speech patterns, stress levels, and cognitive load, among others. Finally, students review their own performance through video recordings and engage in self-assessment and feedback visualization, comparing their own evaluations with peers and professors' assessments, class averages, and AI-generated recommendations. By combining human-based and data-based evaluation techniques, this framework enables more accurate, personalized and actionable feedback. We tested MOSAIC-F in the context of improving oral presentation skills.