We introduce a comprehensive data-driven framework aimed at enhancing the modeling of physical systems, employing inference techniques and machine learning enhancements. As a demonstrative application, we pursue the modeling of cathodic electrophoretic deposition (EPD), commonly known as e-coating. Our approach illustrates a systematic procedure for enhancing physical models by identifying their limitations through inference on experimental data and introducing adaptable model enhancements to address these shortcomings. We begin by tackling the issue of model parameter identifiability, which reveals aspects of the model that require improvement. To address generalizability , we introduce modifications which also enhance identifiability. However, these modifications do not fully capture essential experimental behaviors. To overcome this limitation, we incorporate interpretable yet flexible augmentations into the baseline model. These augmentations are parameterized by simple fully-connected neural networks (FNNs), and we leverage machine learning tools, particularly Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs), to learn these augmentations. Our simulations demonstrate that the machine learning-augmented model more accurately captures observed behaviors and improves predictive accuracy. Nevertheless, we contend that while the model updates offer superior performance and capture the relevant physics, we can reduce off-line computational costs by eliminating certain dynamics without compromising accuracy or interpretability in downstream predictions of quantities of interest, particularly film thickness predictions. The entire process outlined here provides a structured approach to leverage data-driven methods. Firstly, it helps us comprehend the root causes of model inaccuracies, and secondly, it offers a principled method for enhancing model performance.

Federated learning aims to infer a shared model from private and decentralized data stored locally by multiple clients. Personalized federated learning (PFL) goes one step further by adapting the global model to each client, enhancing the model's fit for different clients. A significant level of personalization is required for highly heterogeneous clients, but can be challenging to achieve especially when they have small datasets. To address this problem, we propose a PFL algorithm named PAC-PFL for learning probabilistic models within a PAC-Bayesian framework that utilizes differential privacy to handle data-dependent priors. Our algorithm collaboratively learns a shared hyper-posterior and regards each client's posterior inference as the personalization step. By establishing and minimizing a generalization bound on the average true risk of clients, PAC-PFL effectively combats over-fitting. PACPFL achieves accurate and well-calibrated predictions, supported by experiments on a dataset of photovoltaic panel power generation, FEMNIST dataset (Caldas et al., 2019), and Dirichlet-partitioned EMNIST dataset (Cohen et al., 2017).

Dynamic graph learning has gained significant attention as it offers a powerful means to model intricate interactions among entities across various real-world and scientific domains. Notably, graphs serve as effective representations for diverse networks such as transportation, brain, social, and internet networks. Furthermore, the rapid advancements in machine learning have expanded the scope of dynamic graph applications beyond the aforementioned domains. In this paper, we present a review of lesser-explored applications of dynamic graph learning. This study revealed the potential of machine learning on dynamic graphs in addressing challenges across diverse domains, including those with limited levels of association with the field.

Some of the most successful knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models for link prediction -- CP, RESCAL, TuckER, ComplEx -- can be interpreted as energy-based models. Under this perspective they are not amenable for exact maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE), sampling and struggle to integrate logical constraints. This work re-interprets the score functions of these KGEs as circuits -- constrained computational graphs allowing efficient marginalisation. Then, we design two recipes to obtain efficient generative circuit models by either restricting their activations to be non-negative or squaring their outputs. Our interpretation comes with little or no loss of performance for link prediction, while the circuits framework unlocks exact learning by MLE, efficient sampling of new triples, and guarantee that logical constraints are satisfied by design. Furthermore, our models scale more gracefully than the original KGEs on graphs with millions of entities.

Predictive maintenance is a well studied collection of techniques that aims to prolong the life of a mechanical system by using artificial intelligence and machine learning to predict the optimal time to perform maintenance. The methods allow maintainers of systems and hardware to reduce financial and time costs of upkeep. As these methods are adopted for more serious and potentially life-threatening applications, the human operators need trust the predictive system. This attracts the field of Explainable AI (XAI) to introduce explainability and interpretability into the predictive system. XAI brings methods to the field of predictive maintenance that can amplify trust in the users while maintaining well-performing systems. This survey on explainable predictive maintenance (XPM) discusses and presents the current methods of XAI as applied to predictive maintenance while following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 guidelines. We categorize the different XPM methods into groups that follow the XAI literature. Additionally, we include current challenges and a discussion on future research directions in XPM.

Predicting the future location of mobile objects reinforces location-aware services with proactive intelligence and helps businesses and decision-makers with better planning and near real-time scheduling in different applications such as traffic congestion control, location-aware advertisements, and monitoring public health and well-being. The recent developments in the smartphone and location sensors technology and the prevalence of using location-based social networks alongside the improvements in artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques provide an excellent opportunity to exploit massive amounts of historical and real-time contextual information to recognise mobility patterns and achieve more accurate and intelligent predictions. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the next useful location prediction problem with context-awareness. First, we explain the concepts of context and context-awareness and define the next location prediction problem. Then we analyse nearly thirty studies in this field concerning the prediction method, the challenges addressed, the datasets and metrics used for training and evaluating the model, and the types of context incorporated. Finally, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches, focusing on the usefulness of the predicted location and identifying the open challenges and future work on this subject by introducing two potential use cases of next location prediction in the automotive industry.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an estimate of the posterior prediction variance, the latter being used to produce Bayesian credibility intervals. Interpreting these intervals relies on the Gaussianity of the simulation model as well as the well-specification of the priors which are not always appropriate. We propose to address this issue with the help of conformal prediction. In the present work, a method for building adaptive cross-conformal prediction intervals is proposed by weighting the non-conformity score with the posterior standard deviation of the GP. The resulting conformal prediction intervals exhibit a level of adaptivity akin to Bayesian credibility sets and display a significant correlation with the surrogate model local approximation error, while being free from the underlying model assumptions and having frequentist coverage guarantees. These estimators can thus be used for evaluating the quality of a GP surrogate model and can assist a decision-maker in the choice of the best prior for the specific application of the GP. The performance of the method is illustrated through a panel of numerical examples based on various reference databases. Moreover, the potential applicability of the method is demonstrated in the context of surrogate modeling of an expensive-to-evaluate simulator of the clogging phenomenon in steam generators of nuclear reactors.

In this paper, we present a novel framework for data redundancy measurement based on probabilistic modeling of datasets, and a new criterion for redundancy detection that is resilient to noise. We also develop new methods for data redundancy reduction using both deterministic and stochastic optimization techniques. Our framework is flexible and can handle different types of features, and our experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. We provide a new perspective on feature selection, and propose effective and robust approaches for both supervised and unsupervised learning problems.

Computer vision research has long aimed to build systems that are robust to spatial transformations found in natural data. Traditionally, this is done using data augmentation or hard-coding invariances into the architecture. However, too much or too little invariance can hurt, and the correct amount is unknown a priori and dependent on the instance. Ideally, the appropriate invariance would be learned from data and inferred at test-time. We treat invariance as a prediction problem. Given any image, we use a normalizing flow to predict a distribution over transformations and average the predictions over them. Since this distribution only depends on the instance, we can align instances before classifying them and generalize invariance across classes. The same distribution can also be used to adapt to out-of-distribution poses. This normalizing flow is trained end-to-end and can learn a much larger range of transformations than Augerino and InstaAug. When used as data augmentation, our method shows accuracy and robustness gains on CIFAR 10, CIFAR10-LT, and TinyImageNet.

Self-adaptation is a crucial feature of autonomous systems that must cope with uncertainties in, e.g., their environment and their internal state. Self-adaptive systems are often modelled as two-layered systems with a managed subsystem handling the domain concerns and a managing subsystem implementing the adaptation logic. We consider a case study of a self-adaptive robotic system; more concretely, an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) used for pipeline inspection. In this paper, we model and analyse it with the feature-aware probabilistic model checker ProFeat. The functionalities of the AUV are modelled in a feature model, capturing the AUV's variability. This allows us to model the managed subsystem of the AUV as a family of systems, where each family member corresponds to a valid feature configuration of the AUV. The managing subsystem of the AUV is modelled as a control layer capable of dynamically switching between such valid feature configurations, depending both on environmental and internal conditions. We use this model to analyse probabilistic reward and safety properties for the AUV.