This paper presents a structure-preserving Bayesian approach for learning nonseparable Hamiltonian systems using stochastic dynamic models allowing for statistically-dependent, vector-valued additive and multiplicative measurement noise. The approach is comprised of three main facets. First, we derive a Gaussian filter for a statistically-dependent, vector-valued, additive and multiplicative noise model that is needed to evaluate the likelihood within the Bayesian posterior. Second, we develop a novel algorithm for cost-effective application of Bayesian system identification to high-dimensional systems. Third, we demonstrate how structure-preserving methods can be incorporated into the proposed framework, using nonseparable Hamiltonians as an illustrative system class. We compare the Bayesian method to a state-of-the-art machine learning method on a canonical nonseparable Hamiltonian model and a chaotic double pendulum model with small, noisy training datasets. The results show that using the Bayesian posterior as a training objective can yield upwards of 724 times improvement in Hamiltonian mean squared error using training data with up to 10% multiplicative noise compared to a standard training objective. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility of the novel algorithm for parameter estimation of a 64-dimensional model of the spatially-discretized nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation with data corrupted by up to 20% multiplicative noise.

Efforts in the fight against Climate Change are increasingly oriented towards new energy efficiency strategies in Smart Grids (SGs). In 2018, with proper legislation, the European Union (EU) defined the Renewable Energy Community (REC) as a local electrical grid whose participants share their self-produced renewable energy, aiming at reducing bill costs by taking advantage of proper incentives. That action aspires to accelerate the spread of local renewable energy exploitation, whose costs could not be within everyone's reach. Since a REC is technically an SG, the strategies above can be applied, and specifically, practical Energy Management Systems (EMSs) are required. Therefore, in this work, an online Hierarchical EMS (HEMS) is synthesized for REC cost minimization to evaluate its superiority over a local self-consumption approach. EU technical indications (as inherited from Italy) are diligently followed, aiming for results that are as realistic as possible. Power flows between REC nodes, or Microgrids (MGs) are optimized by taking Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) and PV plant costs, energy purchase costs, and REC incentives. A hybrid Fuzzy Inference System - Genetic Algorithm (FIS-GA) model is implemented with the GA encoding the FIS parameters. Power generation and consumption, which are the overall system input, are predicted by a LSTM trained on historical data. The proposed hierarchical model achieves good precision in short computation times and outperforms the self-consumption approach, leading to about 20% savings compared to the latter. In addition, the Explainable AI (XAI), which characterizes the model through the FIS, makes results more reliable thanks to an excellent human interpretation level. To finish, the HEMS is parametrized so that it is straightforward to switch to another Country's technical legislation framework.

Pattern recognition systems implemented using deep neural networks achieve better results than linear models. However, their drawback is the black box property. This property means that one with no experience utilising nonlinear systems may need help understanding the outcome of the decision. Such a solution is unacceptable to the user responsible for the final decision. He must not only believe in the decision but also understand it. Therefore, recognisers must have an architecture that allows interpreters to interpret the findings. The idea of post-hoc explainable classifiers is to design an interpretable classifier parallel to the black box classifier, giving the same decisions as the black box classifier. This paper shows that the explainable classifier completes matching classification decisions with the black box classifier on the MNIST and FashionMNIST databases if Zadeh's fuzzy logic function forms the classifier and DeconvNet importance gives the truth values. Since the other tested significance measures achieved lower performance than DeconvNet, it is the optimal transformation of the feature values to their truth values as inputs to the fuzzy logic function for the databases and recogniser architecture used.

Deep learning has revolutionized the last decade, being at the forefront of extraordinary advances in a wide range of tasks including computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning, to name but a few. However, it is well-known that deep models trained via maximum likelihood estimation tend to be overconfident and give poorly-calibrated predictions. Bayesian deep learning attempts to address this by placing priors on the model parameters, which are then combined with a likelihood to perform posterior inference. Unfortunately, for deep models, the true posterior is intractable, forcing the user to resort to approximations. In this thesis, we explore the use of variational inference (VI) as an approximation, as it is unique in simultaneously approximating the posterior and providing a lower bound to the marginal likelihood. If tight enough, this lower bound can be used to optimize hyperparameters and to facilitate model selection. However, this capacity has rarely been used to its full extent for Bayesian neural networks, likely because the approximate posteriors typically used in practice can lack the flexibility to effectively bound the marginal likelihood. We therefore explore three aspects of Bayesian learning for deep models: 1) we ask whether it is necessary to perform inference over as many parameters as possible, or whether it is reasonable to treat many of them as optimizable hyperparameters; 2) we propose a variational posterior that provides a unified view of inference in Bayesian neural networks and deep Gaussian processes; 3) we demonstrate how VI can be improved in certain deep Gaussian process models by analytically removing symmetries from the posterior, and performing inference on Gram matrices instead of features. We hope that our contributions will provide a stepping stone to fully realize the promises of VI in the future.

Bayesian Neural Networks (BayNNs) naturally provide uncertainty in their predictions, making them a suitable choice in safety-critical applications. Additionally, their realization using memristor-based in-memory computing (IMC) architectures enables them for resource-constrained edge applications. In addition to predictive uncertainty, however, the ability to be inherently robust to noise in computation is also essential to ensure functional safety. In particular, memristor-based IMCs are susceptible to various sources of non-idealities such as manufacturing and runtime variations, drift, and failure, which can significantly reduce inference accuracy. In this paper, we propose a method to inherently enhance the robustness and inference accuracy of BayNNs deployed in IMC architectures. To achieve this, we introduce a novel normalization layer combined with stochastic affine transformations. Empirical results in various benchmark datasets show a graceful degradation in inference accuracy, with an improvement of up to $58.11\%$.

We propose Expert Monitoring, an approach that leverages domain expertise to enhance the detection and mitigation of concept drift in machine learning (ML) models. Our approach supports practitioners by consolidating domain expertise related to concept drift-inducing events, making this expertise accessible to on-call personnel, and enabling automatic adaptability with expert oversight.

Robust evidence suggests that humans explore their environment using a combination of topological landmarks and coarse-grained path integration. This approach relies on identifiable environmental features (topological landmarks) in tandem with estimations of distance and direction (coarse-grained path integration) to construct cognitive maps of the surroundings. This cognitive map is believed to exhibit a hierarchical structure, allowing efficient planning when solving complex navigation tasks. Inspired by human behaviour, this paper presents a scalable hierarchical active inference model for autonomous navigation, exploration, and goal-oriented behaviour. The model uses visual observation and motion perception to combine curiosity-driven exploration with goal-oriented behaviour. Motion is planned using different levels of reasoning, i.e., from context to place to motion. This allows for efficient navigation in new spaces and rapid progress toward a target. By incorporating these human navigational strategies and their hierarchical representation of the environment, this model proposes a new solution for autonomous navigation and exploration. The approach is validated through simulations in a mini-grid environment.

Approximate Thompson sampling with Langevin Monte Carlo broadens its reach from Gaussian posterior sampling to encompass more general smooth posteriors. However, it still encounters scalability issues in high-dimensional problems when demanding high accuracy. To address this, we propose an approximate Thompson sampling strategy, utilizing underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo, where the latter is the go-to workhorse for simulations of high-dimensional posteriors. Based on the standard smoothness and log-concavity conditions, we study the accelerated posterior concentration and sampling using a specific potential function. This design improves the sample complexity for realizing logarithmic regrets from $\mathcal{\tilde O}(d)$ to $\mathcal{\tilde O}(\sqrt{d})$. The scalability and robustness of our algorithm are also empirically validated through synthetic experiments in high-dimensional bandit problems.

Nonparametric models have extensive applications across diverse fields, including biology (Mac-Farland et al. (2016)), economics (Ullah and Pagan (1999); Li and Racine (2023)), engineering (Lanzante (1996)), and machine learning (Hofmann et al. (2008); Schmidt-hieber (2020)). The most representative nonparametric approaches are kernel methods, known for their numerical robustness and statistical stability in lower-dimensional settings. However, kernel methods often suffer from the curse of dimensionality in higher-dimensional spaces. Recently, a number of significant studies have tackled various modern challenges in nonparametric models. For example, Ravikumar et al. (2009), Raskutti et al. (2012), and Yuan and Zhou (2016) have studied additive models for high-dimensional nonparametric regression; Zhang et al. (2015) and Yang et al. (2017) analyzed randomized algorithms for kernel regression estimation; and Liu et al. (2007) explored nonparametric density estimation in higher dimensions. Despite these contributions, the curse of dimensionality in nonparametric problems, particularly in aspects of statistical accuracy and computational efficiency, remains an open area for further exploration. In this paper, we aim to develop a new framework specifically designed for nonparametric estimation problems. Within this framework, we conceptualize functions as matrices or tensors and explore new methods for handling the bias-variance trade-off, aiming to reduce the curse of dimensionality in higher dimensions. Matrix approximation algorithms, such as singular value decomposition and QR decomposition, play a crucial role in computational mathematics and statistics.

We explore a stochastic contextual linear bandit problem where the agent observes a noisy, corrupted version of the true context through a noise channel with an unknown noise parameter. Our objective is to design an action policy that can approximate" that of an oracle, which has access to the reward model, the channel parameter, and the predictive distribution of the true context from the observed noisy context. In a Bayesian framework, we introduce a Thompson sampling algorithm for Gaussian bandits with Gaussian context noise. Adopting an information-theoretic analysis, we demonstrate the Bayesian regret of our algorithm concerning the oracle's action policy. We also extend this problem to a scenario where the agent observes the true context with some delay after receiving the reward and show that delayed true contexts lead to lower Bayesian regret. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithms against baselines.