Time series clustering is an essential machine learning task with applications in many disciplines. While the majority of the methods focus on time series taking values on the real line, very few works consider time series defined on the unit circle, although the latter objects frequently arise in many applications. In this paper, the problem of clustering circular time series is addressed. To this aim, a distance between circular series is introduced and used to construct a clustering procedure. The metric relies on a new measure of serial dependence considering circular arcs, thus taking advantage of the directional character inherent to the series range. Since the dynamics of the series may vary over the time, we adopt a fuzzy approach, which enables the procedure to locate each series into several clusters with different membership degrees. The resulting clustering algorithm is able to group series generated from similar stochastic processes, reaching accurate results with series coming from a broad variety of models. An extensive simulation study shows that the proposed method outperforms several alternative techniques, besides being computationally efficient. Two interesting applications involving time series of wind direction in Saudi Arabia highlight the potential of the proposed approach.

State-of-the-art methods for Bayesian inference in state-space models are (a) conditional sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) algorithms; (b) sophisticated 'classical' MCMC algorithms like MALA, or mGRAD from Titsias and Papaspiliopoulos (2018, arXiv:1610.09641v3 [stat.ML]). The former propose $N$ particles at each time step to exploit the model's 'decorrelation-over-time' property and thus scale favourably with the time horizon, $T$ , but break down if the dimension of the latent states, $D$, is large. The latter leverage gradient-/prior-informed local proposals to scale favourably with $D$ but exhibit sub-optimal scalability with $T$ due to a lack of model-structure exploitation. We introduce methods which combine the strengths of both approaches. The first, Particle-MALA, spreads $N$ particles locally around the current state using gradient information, thus extending MALA to $T > 1$ time steps and $N > 1$ proposals. The second, Particle-mGRAD, additionally incorporates (conditionally) Gaussian prior dynamics into the proposal, thus extending the mGRAD algorithm to $T > 1$ time steps and $N > 1$ proposals. We prove that Particle-mGRAD interpolates between CSMC and Particle-MALA, resolving the 'tuning problem' of choosing between CSMC (superior for highly informative prior dynamics) and Particle-MALA (superior for weakly informative prior dynamics). We similarly extend other 'classical' MCMC approaches like auxiliary MALA, aGRAD, and preconditioned Crank-Nicolson-Langevin (PCNL) to $T > 1$ time steps and $N > 1$ proposals. In experiments, for both highly and weakly informative prior dynamics, our methods substantially improve upon both CSMC and sophisticated 'classical' MCMC approaches.

An adaptive control approach for a three-phase grid-interfaced solar photovoltaic system based on the new Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System with Rain Optimization Algorithm (ANROA) methodology is proposed and discussed in this manuscript. This method incorporates an Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with a Rain Optimization Algorithm (ROA). The ANFIS controller has excellent maximum tracking capability because it includes features of both neural and fuzzy techniques. The ROA technique is in charge of controlling the voltage source converter switching. Avoiding power quality problems including voltage fluctuations, harmonics, and flickers as well as unbalanced loads and reactive power usage is the major goal. Besides, the proposed method performs at zero voltage regulation and unity power factor modes. The suggested control approach has been modeled and simulated, and its performance has been assessed using existing alternative methods. A statistical analysis of proposed and existing techniques has been also presented and discussed. The results of the simulations demonstrate that, when compared to alternative approaches, the suggested strategy may properly and effectively identify the best global solutions. Furthermore, the system's robustness has been studied by using MATLAB/SIMULINK environment and experimentally by Field Programmable Gate Arrays Controller (FPGA)-based Hardware-in-Loop (HLL).

The feature selection in a traditional binary classification algorithm is always used in the stage of dataset preprocessing, which makes the obtained features not necessarily the best ones for the classification algorithm, thus affecting the classification performance. For a traditional rule-based binary classification algorithm, classification rules are usually deterministic, which results in the fuzzy information contained in the rules being ignored. To do so, this paper employs iterative feature selection in fuzzy rule-based binary classification. The proposed algorithm combines feature selection based on fuzzy correlation family with rule mining based on biclustering. It first conducts biclustering on the dataset after feature selection. Then it conducts feature selection again for the biclusters according to the feedback of biclusters evaluation. In this way, an iterative feature selection framework is build. During the iteration process, it stops until the obtained bicluster meets the requirements. In addition, the rule membership function is introduced to extract vectorized fuzzy rules from the bicluster and construct weak classifiers. The weak classifiers with good classification performance are selected by Adaptive Boosting and the strong classifier is constructed by "weighted average". Finally, we perform the proposed algorithm on different datasets and compare it with other peers. Experimental results show that it achieves good classification performance and outperforms its peers.

Several successful reinforcement learning algorithms make use of regularization to promote multi-modal policies that exhibit enhanced exploration and robustness. With functional approximation, the convergence properties of some of these algorithms (e.g. soft Q-learning) are not well understood. In this paper, we consider a single-loop algorithm for minimizing the projected Bellman error with finite time convergence guarantees in the case of linear function approximation. The algorithm operates on two scales: a slower scale for updating the target network of the state-action values, and a faster scale for approximating the Bellman backups in the subspace of the span of basis vectors. We show that, under certain assumptions, the proposed algorithm converges to a stationary point in the presence of Markovian noise. In addition, we provide a performance guarantee for the policies derived from the proposed algorithm.

We seek to model a collection of time series arising from multiple entities interacting over the same time period. Recent work focused on modeling individual time series is inadequate for our intended applications, where collective system-level behavior influences the trajectories of individual entities. To address such problems, we present a new hierarchical switching-state model that can be trained in an unsupervised fashion to simultaneously explain both system-level and individual-level dynamics. We employ a latent system-level discrete state Markov chain that drives latent entity-level chains which in turn govern the dynamics of each observed time series. Feedback from the observations to the chains at both the entity and system levels improves flexibility via context-dependent state transitions. Our hierarchical switching recurrent dynamical models can be learned via closed-form variational coordinate ascent updates to all latent chains that scale linearly in the number of individual time series. This is asymptotically no more costly than fitting separate models for each entity. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our model can produce better forecasts of future entity behavior than existing methods. Moreover, the availability of latent state chains at both the entity and system level enables interpretation of group dynamics.

Disaggregated evaluation is a central task in AI fairness assessment, with the goal to measure an AI system's performance across different subgroups defined by combinations of demographic or other sensitive attributes. The standard approach is to stratify the evaluation data across subgroups and compute performance metrics separately for each group. However, even for moderately-sized evaluation datasets, sample sizes quickly get small once considering intersectional subgroups, which greatly limits the extent to which intersectional groups are considered in many disaggregated evaluations. In this work, we introduce a structured regression approach to disaggregated evaluation that we demonstrate can yield reliable system performance estimates even for very small subgroups. We also provide corresponding inference strategies for constructing confidence intervals and explore how goodness-of-fit testing can yield insight into the structure of fairness-related harms experienced by intersectional groups. We evaluate our approach on two publicly available datasets, and several variants of semi-synthetic data. The results show that our method is considerably more accurate than the standard approach, especially for small subgroups, and goodness-of-fit testing helps identify the key factors that drive differences in performance.

Examples include the number of users who will install a software update, the number of customers who will use a new feature on a website or who will participate in an A/B test. Whether the focus is on estimating the number of individuals initiating an action or predicting the temporal span needed to attain a desired user participation threshold, accurate predictive models play a central role in decision making, resource allocation, and enhancing user experiences. See, e.g., Kohavi et al. (2007) and Bakshy et al. (2014) for further details on online experiments. While participation data can be formally treated as a time series, the problem of forecasting user participation does not lend itself to time series models (see Richardson et al., 2022, and the references therein). Moreover, intricate dynamics that underlie user engagement patterns. Conventional models often assume that initiation times are identically distributed, ignoring the diverse behaviors and preferences exhibited by individuals. In reality, users demonstrate varying propensities to engage, leading to a multitude of initiation timelines. Recognizing this complexity, Richardson et al. (2022) recently proposed a Bayesian model for the users' initiation times, which allows different behaviors to be captured, while simultaneously borrowing strength as is typical in hierarchical Bayesian models.

Neuro-symbolic AI bridges the gap between purely symbolic and neural approaches to learning. This often requires maximizing the likelihood of a symbolic constraint w.r.t the neural network's output distribution. Such output distributions are typically assumed to be fully-factorized. This limits the applicability of neuro-symbolic learning to the more expressive autoregressive distributions, e.g., transformers. Under such distributions, computing the likelihood of even simple constraints is #P-hard. Instead of attempting to enforce the constraint on the entire output distribution, we propose to do so on a random, local approximation thereof. More precisely, we optimize the likelihood of the constraint under a pseudolikelihood-based approximation centered around a model sample. Our approximation is factorized, allowing the reuse of solutions to sub-problems, a main tenet for efficiently computing neuro-symbolic losses. Moreover, it is a local, high-fidelity approximation of the likelihood, exhibiting low entropy and KL-divergence around the model sample. We evaluate our approach on Sudoku and shortest-path prediction cast as autoregressive generation, and observe that we greatly improve upon the base model's ability to predict logically-consistent outputs. We also evaluate on the task of detoxifying large language models. Using a simple constraint disallowing a list of toxic words, we are able to steer the model's outputs away from toxic generations, achieving SoTA detoxification compared to previous approaches.

Decision-making with information displays is a key focus of research in areas like explainable AI, human-AI teaming, and data visualization. However, what constitutes a decision problem, and what is required for an experiment to be capable of concluding that human decisions are flawed in some way, remain open to speculation. We present a widely applicable definition of a decision problem synthesized from statistical decision theory and information economics. We argue that to attribute loss in human performance to forms of bias, an experiment must provide participants with the information that a rational agent would need to identify the normative decision. We evaluate the extent to which recent evaluations of decision-making from the literature on AI-assisted decisions achieve this criteria. We find that only 6 (17\%) of 35 studies that claim to identify biased behavior present participants with sufficient information to characterize their behavior as deviating from good decision-making. We motivate the value of studying well-defined decision problems by describing a characterization of performance losses they allow us to conceive. In contrast, the ambiguities of a poorly communicated decision problem preclude normative interpretation. We conclude with recommendations for practice.