In-Context Learning (ICL) empowers Large Language Models (LLMs) with the capacity to learn in context, achieving downstream generalization without gradient updates but with a few in-context examples. Despite the encouraging empirical success, the underlying mechanism of ICL remains unclear, and existing research offers various viewpoints of understanding. These studies propose intuition-driven and ad-hoc technical solutions for interpreting ICL, illustrating an ambiguous road map. In this paper, we leverage a data generation perspective to reinterpret recent efforts and demonstrate the potential broader usage of popular technical solutions, approaching a systematic angle. For a conceptual definition, we rigorously adopt the terms of skill learning and skill recognition. The difference between them is skill learning can learn new data generation functions from in-context data. We also provide a comprehensive study on the merits and weaknesses of different solutions, and highlight the uniformity among them given the perspective of data generation, establishing a technical foundation for future research to incorporate the strengths of different lines of research.

We propose a novel approach based on Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) to control nonlinear dynamical systems. DDPMs are the state-of-art of generative models that have achieved success in a wide variety of sampling tasks. In our framework, we pose the feedback control problem as a generative task of drawing samples from a target set under control system constraints. The forward process of DDPMs constructs trajectories originating from a target set by adding noise. We learn to control a dynamical system in reverse such that the terminal state belongs to the target set. For control-affine systems without drift, we prove that the control system can exactly track the trajectory of the forward process in reverse, whenever the the Lie bracket based condition for controllability holds. We numerically study our approach on various nonlinear systems and verify our theoretical results. We also conduct numerical experiments for cases beyond our theoretical results on a physics-engine.

In longitudinal observational studies with a time-to-event outcome, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios within the study cohort. The g-formula is a particularly useful tool for this analysis. To enhance the traditional parametric g-formula approach, we developed a more adaptable Bayesian g-formula estimator. This estimator facilitates both longitudinal predictive and causal inference. It incorporates Bayesian additive regression trees in the modeling of the time-evolving generative components, aiming to mitigate bias due to model misspecification. Specifically, we introduce a more general class of g-formulas for discrete survival data. These formulas can incorporate the longitudinal balancing scores, which serve as an effective method for dimension reduction and are vital when dealing with an expanding array of time-varying confounders. The minimum sufficient formulation of these longitudinal balancing scores is linked to the nature of treatment regimes, whether static or dynamic. For each type of treatment regime, we provide posterior sampling algorithms, which are grounded in the Bayesian additive regression trees framework. We have conducted simulation studies to illustrate the empirical performance of our proposed Bayesian g-formula estimators, and to compare them with existing parametric estimators. We further demonstrate the practical utility of our methods in real-world scenarios using data from the Yale New Haven Health System's electronic health records.

Considering a graph with unknown weights, can we find the shortest path for a pair of nodes if we know the minimal Steiner trees associated with some subset of nodes? That is, with respect to a fixed latent decision-making system (e.g., a weighted graph), we seek to solve one optimization problem (e.g., the shortest path problem) by leveraging information associated with another optimization problem (e.g., the minimal Steiner tree problem). In this paper, we study such a prototype problem called \textit{query-decision regression with task shifts}, focusing on the shortest path problem and the minimum Steiner tree problem. We provide theoretical insights regarding the design of realizable hypothesis spaces for building scoring models, and present two principled learning frameworks. Our experimental studies show that such problems can be solved to a decent extent with statistical significance.

Recent diffusion models provide a promising zero-shot solution to noisy linear inverse problems without retraining for specific inverse problems. In this paper, we propose the first unified interpretation for existing zero-shot methods from the perspective of approximating the conditional posterior mean for the reverse diffusion process of conditional sampling. We reveal that recent methods are equivalent to making isotropic Gaussian approximations to intractable posterior distributions over clean images given diffused noisy images, with the only difference in the handcrafted design of isotropic posterior covariances. Inspired by this finding, we propose a general plug-and-play posterior covariance optimization based on maximum likelihood estimation to improve recent methods. To achieve optimal posterior covariance without retraining, we provide general solutions based on two approaches specifically designed to leverage pre-trained models with and without reverse covariances. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methods significantly enhance the overall performance or robustness to hyperparameters of recent methods. Code is available at https://github.com/xypeng9903/k-diffusion-inverse-problems

We leverage multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) to improve the performance of multi-step look-ahead Bayesian optimization (BO) methods that involve nested expectations and maximizations. The complexity rate of naive Monte Carlo degrades for nested operations, whereas MLMC is capable of achieving the canonical Monte Carlo convergence rate for this type of problem, independently of dimension and without any smoothness assumptions. Our theoretical study focuses on the approximation improvements for one- and two-step look-ahead acquisition functions, but, as we discuss, the approach is generalizable in various ways, including beyond the context of BO. Findings are verified numerically and the benefits of MLMC for BO are illustrated on several benchmark examples. Code is available here https://github.com/Shangda-Yang/MLMCBO.

This paper describes an architecture for predicting the price of cryptocurrencies for the next seven days using the Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Historical data of cryptocurrencies and indexes that are considered are Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), and Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) in The architectural performance designed in this paper has been compared with different inputs and neural network models in terms of statistical evaluation criteria. Finally, the proposed method can predict the price of digital currencies in a short time. NTRODUCTION Digital currency is a form of electronic money that operates on the internet and possesses most of the attributes of conventional money, except for its physical absence. A subset of digital currency is cryptocurrency, which is encrypted by specific algorithms. These cryptocurrencies often utilize blockchain technology to record transactions [1]. The main distinction between cryptocurrencies and other digital currencies is the level of security of the former.

Privacy concerns have led to a surge in the creation of synthetic datasets, with diffusion models emerging as a promising avenue. Although prior studies have performed empirical evaluations on these models, there has been a gap in providing a mathematical characterization of their privacy-preserving capabilities. To address this, we present the pioneering theoretical exploration of the privacy preservation inherent in discrete diffusion models (DDMs) for discrete dataset generation. Focusing on per-instance differential privacy (pDP), our framework elucidates the potential privacy leakage for each data point in a given training dataset, offering insights into how the privacy loss of each point correlates with the dataset's distribution. Our bounds also show that training with $s$-sized data points leads to a surge in privacy leakage from $(\epsilon, O(\frac{1}{s^2\epsilon}))$-pDP to $(\epsilon, O(\frac{1}{s\epsilon}))$-pDP of the DDM during the transition from the pure noise to the synthetic clean data phase, and a faster decay in diffusion coefficients amplifies the privacy guarantee. Finally, we empirically verify our theoretical findings on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

This paper introduces Bayesian Flow Networks (BFNs), a new class of generative model in which the parameters of a set of independent distributions are modified with Bayesian inference in the light of noisy data samples, then passed as input to a neural network that outputs a second, interdependent distribution. Starting from a simple prior and iteratively updating the two distributions yields a generative procedure similar to the reverse process of diffusion models; however it is conceptually simpler in that no forward process is required. Discrete and continuous-time loss functions are derived for continuous, discretised and discrete data, along with sample generation procedures. Notably, the network inputs for discrete data lie on the probability simplex, and are therefore natively differentiable, paving the way for gradient-based sample guidance and few-step generation in discrete domains such as language modelling. The loss function directly optimises data compression and places no restrictions on the network architecture. In our experiments BFNs achieve competitive log-likelihoods for image modelling on dynamically binarized MNIST and CIFAR-10, and outperform all known discrete diffusion models on the text8 character-level language modelling task.

Pervasive across diverse domains, stochastic systems exhibit fluctuations in processes ranging from molecular dynamics to climate phenomena. The Langevin equation has served as a common mathematical model for studying such systems, enabling predictions of their temporal evolution and analyses of thermodynamic quantities, including absorbed heat, work done on the system, and entropy production. However, inferring the Langevin equation from observed trajectories remains challenging, particularly for nonlinear and high-dimensional systems. In this study, we present a comprehensive framework that employs Bayesian neural networks for inferring Langevin equations in both overdamped and underdamped regimes. Our framework first provides the drift force and diffusion matrix separately and then combines them to construct the Langevin equation. By providing a distribution of predictions instead of a single value, our approach allows us to assess prediction uncertainties, which can prevent potential misunderstandings and erroneous decisions about the system. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in inferring Langevin equations for various scenarios including a neuron model and microscopic engine, highlighting its versatility and potential impact.