In online randomized experiments or A/B tests, accurate predictions of participant inclusion rates are of paramount importance. These predictions not only guide experimenters in optimizing the experiment's duration but also enhance the precision of treatment effect estimates. In this paper we present a novel, straightforward, and scalable Bayesian nonparametric approach for predicting the rate at which individuals will be exposed to interventions within the realm of online A/B testing. Our approach stands out by offering dual prediction capabilities--it forecasts both the quantity of new customers expected in future time windows and, unlike available alternative methods, the number of times they will be observed. We derive closedform expressions for the posterior distributions of the quantities needed to form predictions about future user activity, thereby bypassing the need for numerical algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. After a comprehensive exposition of our model, we test its performance on experiments on real and simulated data, where we show its superior performance with respect to existing alternatives in the literature. 1 Introduction The problem of predicting the size of a population from which random samples are drawn has a long history in the statistics literature. Originally motivated by applications in ecology, where the goal is typically to determine the number of distinct species of animals within a population (Fisher et al., 1943; Good, 1953; Burnham and Overton, 1979), a variation of this problem has recently received considerable attention also in the genomics literature, where scientists are interested in predicting the number of future rare variants to be observed within a genomic study (Ionita-Laza et al., 2009; Zou et al., 2016; Chakraborty et al., 2019; Masoero et al., 2022).

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian learning model to understand the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs). We explore the optimization metric of LLMs, which is based on predicting the next token, and develop a novel model grounded in this principle. Our approach involves constructing an ideal generative text model represented by a multinomial transition probability matrix with a prior, and we examine how LLMs approximate this matrix. We discuss the continuity of the mapping between embeddings and multinomial distributions, and present the Dirichlet approximation theorem to approximate any prior. Additionally, we demonstrate how text generation by LLMs aligns with Bayesian learning principles and delve into the implications for in-context learning, specifically explaining why in-context learning emerges in larger models where prompts are considered as samples to be updated. Our findings indicate that the behavior of LLMs is consistent with Bayesian Learning, offering new insights into their functioning and potential applications.

The inadequate mixing of conventional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for multi-modal distributions presents a significant challenge in practical applications such as Bayesian inference and molecular dynamics. Addressing this, we propose Diffusive Gibbs Sampling (DiGS), an innovative family of sampling methods designed for effective sampling from distributions characterized by distant and disconnected modes. DiGS integrates recent developments in diffusion models, leveraging Gaussian convolution to create an auxiliary noisy distribution that bridges isolated modes in the original space and applying Gibbs sampling to alternately draw samples from both spaces. Our approach exhibits a better mixing property for sampling multi-modal distributions than state-of-the-art methods such as parallel tempering. We demonstrate that our sampler attains substantially improved results across various tasks, including mixtures of Gaussians, Bayesian neural networks and molecular dynamics.

We introduce a variational inference interpretation for models of "posterior flows" - generalizations of "probability flows" to a broader class of stochastic processes not necessarily diffusion processes. We coin the resulting models as "Variational Flow Models". Additionally, we propose a systematic training-free method to transform the posterior flow of a "linear" stochastic process characterized by the equation Xt = at * X0 + st * X1 into a straight constant-speed (SC) flow, reminiscent of Rectified Flow. This transformation facilitates fast sampling along the original posterior flow without training a new model of the SC flow. The flexibility of our approach allows us to extend our transformation to inter-convert two posterior flows from distinct "linear" stochastic processes. Moreover, we can easily integrate high-order numerical solvers into the transformed SC flow, further enhancing sampling accuracy and efficiency. Rigorous theoretical analysis and extensive experimental results substantiate the advantages of our framework.

In numerous healthcare and other contemporary applications, the variables of primary interest are obtained through indirect measurements, such as in the case of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Computed Tomography (CT). For some of these applications, the reliability of the results is of particular importance. The accuracy and trustworthiness of the outcomes obtained through indirect measurements are significantly influenced by two critical factors: the degree of uncertainty associated with the measuring instrument and the appropriateness of the (forward) model used for the reconstruction of the parameters of interest (measurand). In this paper, we consider Bayesian inversion to obtain the measurand from signals measured by the instrument and a noise model that mimics both the instrument noise and the error of the forward model.

In traditional studies on language evolution, scholars often emphasize the importance of sound laws and sound correspondences for phylogenetic inference of language family trees. However, to date, computational approaches have typically not taken this potential into account. Most computational studies still rely on lexical cognates as major data source for phylogenetic reconstruction in linguistics, although there do exist a few studies in which authors praise the benefits of comparing words at the level of sound sequences. Building on (a) ten diverse datasets from different language families, and (b) state-of-the-art methods for automated cognate and sound correspondence detection, we test, for the first time, the performance of sound-based versus cognate-based approaches to phylogenetic reconstruction. Our results show that phylogenies reconstructed from lexical cognates are topologically closer, by approximately one third with respect to the generalized quartet distance on average, to the gold standard phylogenies than phylogenies reconstructed from sound correspondences.

There has been a long-standing and widespread belief that Bayesian Optimization (BO) with standard Gaussian process (GP), referred to as standard BO, is ineffective in high-dimensional optimization problems. This perception may partly stem from the intuition that GPs struggle with high-dimensional inputs for covariance modeling and function estimation. While these concerns seem reasonable, empirical evidence supporting this belief is lacking. In this paper, we systematically investigated BO with standard GP regression across a variety of synthetic and real-world benchmark problems for high-dimensional optimization. Surprisingly, the performance with standard GP consistently ranks among the best, often outperforming existing BO methods specifically designed for high-dimensional optimization by a large margin. Contrary to the stereotype, we found that standard GP can serve as a capable surrogate for learning high-dimensional target functions. Without strong structural assumptions, BO with standard GP not only excels in high-dimensional optimization but also proves robust in accommodating various structures within the target functions. Furthermore, with standard GP, achieving promising optimization performance is possible by only using maximum likelihood estimation, eliminating the need for expensive Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling that might be required by more complex surrogate models. We thus advocate for a re-evaluation and in-depth study of the potential of standard BO in addressing high-dimensional problems.

This paper introduces a novel concept of interval probability measures that enables the representation of imprecise probabilities, or uncertainty, in a natural and coherent manner. Within an algebra of sets, we introduce a notion of weak complementation denoted as $\psi$. The interval probability measure of an event $H$ is defined with respect to the set of indecisive eventualities $(\psi(H))^c$, which is included in the standard complement $H^c$. We characterize a broad class of interval probability measures and define their properties. Additionally, we establish an updating rule with respect to $H$, incorporating concepts of statistical independence and dependence. The interval distribution of a random variable is formulated, and a corresponding definition of stochastic dominance between two random variables is introduced. As a byproduct, a formal solution to the century-old Keynes-Ramsey controversy is presented.

Contextual Markov decision processes (CMDPs) describe a class of reinforcement learning problems in which the transition kernels and reward functions can change over time with different MDPs indexed by a context variable. While CMDPs serve as an important framework to model many real-world applications with time-varying environments, they are largely unexplored from theoretical perspective. In this paper, we study CMDPs under two linear function approximation models: Model I with context-varying representations and common linear weights for all contexts; and Model II with common representations for all contexts and context-varying linear weights. For both models, we propose novel model-based algorithms and show that they enjoy guaranteed $\epsilon$-suboptimality gap with desired polynomial sample complexity. In particular, instantiating our result for the first model to the tabular CMDP improves the existing result by removing the reachability assumption. Our result for the second model is the first-known result for such a type of function approximation models. Comparison between our results for the two models further indicates that having context-varying features leads to much better sample efficiency than having common representations for all contexts under linear CMDPs.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection aims to detect testing samples far away from the in-distribution (ID) training data, which is crucial for the safe deployment of machine learning models in the real world. Distance-based OOD detection methods have emerged with enhanced deep representation learning. They identify unseen OOD samples by measuring their distances from ID class centroids or prototypes. However, existing approaches learn the representation relying on oversimplified data assumptions, e.g., modeling ID data of each class with one centroid class prototype or using loss functions not designed for OOD detection, which overlook the natural diversities within the data. Naively enforcing data samples of each class to be compact around only one prototype leads to inadequate modeling of realistic data and limited performance. To tackle these issues, we propose PrototypicAl Learning with a Mixture of prototypes (PALM) which models each class with multiple prototypes to capture the sample diversities, and learns more faithful and compact samples embeddings to enhance OOD detection. Our method automatically identifies and dynamically updates prototypes, assigning each sample to a subset of prototypes via reciprocal neighbor soft assignment weights. To learn embeddings with multiple prototypes, PALM optimizes a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) loss to encourage the sample embeddings to be compact around the associated prototypes, as well as a contrastive loss on all prototypes to enhance intra-class compactness and inter-class discrimination at the prototype level. Compared to previous methods with prototypes, the proposed mixture prototype modeling of PALM promotes the representations of each ID class to be more compact and separable from others and the unseen OOD samples, resulting in more reliable OOD detection. Moreover, the automatic estimation of prototypes enables our approach to be extended to the challenging OOD detection task with unlabelled ID data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of PALM over previous methods, achieving state-of-the-art average AUROC performance of 93.82 on the challenging CIFAR-100 benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/jeff024/PALM. Deep learning (DL) plays a crucial role in many real-world applications, such as autonomous driving (Huang et al., 2020), medical diagnosis (Zimmerer et al., 2022), and cyber-security (Nguyen et al., 2022).