Efficient exploration is a key challenge in contextual bandits due to the large size of their action space, where uninformed exploration can result in computational and statistical inefficiencies. Fortunately, the rewards of actions are often correlated and this can be leveraged to explore them efficiently. In this work, we capture such correlations using pre-trained diffusion models; upon which we design diffusion Thompson sampling (dTS). Both theoretical and algorithmic foundations are developed for dTS, and empirical evaluation also shows its favorable performance.

A large branch of explainable machine learning is grounded in cooperative game theory. However, research indicates that game-theoretic explanations may mislead or be hard to interpret. We argue that often there is a critical mismatch between what one wishes to explain (e.g. the output of a classifier) and what current methods such as SHAP explain (e.g. the scalar probability of a class). This paper addresses such gap for probabilistic models by generalising cooperative games and value operators. We introduce the distributional values, random variables that track changes in the model output (e.g. flipping of the predicted class) and derive their analytic expressions for games with Gaussian, Bernoulli and Categorical payoffs. We further establish several characterising properties, and show that our framework provides fine-grained and insightful explanations with case studies on vision and language models.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a mature and widely-used component of the ML toolbox. One of their desirable qualities is automatic hyperparameter selection, which allows for training without user intervention. However, in many realistic settings, approximations are typically needed, which typically do require tuning. We argue that this requirement for tuning complicates evaluation, which has led to a lack of a clear recommendations on which method should be used in which situation. To address this, we make recommendations for comparing GP approximations based on a specification of what a user should expect from a method. In addition, we develop a training procedure for the variational method of Titsias [2009] that leaves no choices to the user, and show that this is a strong baseline that meets our specification. We conclude that benchmarking according to our suggestions gives a clearer view of the current state of the field, and uncovers problems that are still open that future papers should address.

In this work, we develop a graphical model to capture team dynamics. We analyze the model and show how to learn its parameters from data. Using our model we study the phenomenon of team collapse from a computational perspective. We use simulations and real-world experiments to find the main causes of team collapse. We also provide the principles of building resilient teams, i.e., teams that avoid collapsing. Finally, we use our model to analyze the structure of NBA teams and dive deeper into games of interest.

This paper considers the challenges that Large Language Models (LLMs) face when reasoning over text that includes information involving uncertainty explicitly quantified via probability values. This type of reasoning is relevant to a variety of contexts ranging from everyday conversations to medical decision-making. Despite improvements in the mathematical reasoning capabilities of LLMs, they still exhibit significant difficulties when it comes to probabilistic reasoning. To deal with this problem, we first introduce the Bayesian Linguistic Inference Dataset (BLInD), a new dataset specifically designed to test the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. We then leverage this new dataset to thoroughly illustrate the specific limitations of LLMs for tasks involving probabilistic reasoning and present several strategies that map the problem to different formal representations, including Python code, probabilistic inference algorithms, and probabilistic logical programming. We Figure 1: An example from the BLInD dataset including conclude by providing an evaluation of our methods an underlying Bayesian network, its textual description, and on BLInD and on an adaptation of a causal reasoning probabilistic queries in natural language.

We introduce squared neural Poisson point processes (SNEPPPs) by parameterising the intensity function by the squared norm of a two layer neural network. When the hidden layer is fixed and the second layer has a single neuron, our approach resembles previous uses of squared Gaussian process or kernel methods, but allowing the hidden layer to be learnt allows for additional flexibility. In many cases of interest, the integrated intensity function admits a closed form and can be computed in quadratic time in the number of hidden neurons. We enumerate a far more extensive number of such cases than has previously been discussed. Our approach is more memory and time efficient than naive implementations of squared or exponentiated kernel methods or Gaussian processes. Maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimates in a reparameterisation of the final layer of the intensity function can be obtained by solving a (strongly) convex optimisation problem using projected gradient descent. We demonstrate SNEPPPs on real, and synthetic benchmarks, and provide a software implementation. https://github.com/RussellTsuchida/snefy

This paper is intended to appear as a chapter for the Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The goal of this chapter is to unify various problems at the intersection of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and machine learning$\unicode{x2014}$which includes black-box variational inference, adaptive MCMC, normalizing flow construction and transport-assisted MCMC, surrogate-likelihood MCMC, coreset construction for MCMC with big data, Markov chain gradient descent, Markovian score climbing, and more$\unicode{x2014}$within one common framework. By doing so, the theory and methods developed for each may be translated and generalized.

Probabilistic circuits compute multilinear polynomials that represent probability distributions. They are tractable models that support efficient marginal inference. However, various polynomial semantics have been considered in the literature (e.g., network polynomials, likelihood polynomials, generating functions, Fourier transforms, and characteristic polynomials). The relationships between these polynomial encodings of distributions is largely unknown. In this paper, we prove that for binary distributions, each of these probabilistic circuit models is equivalent in the sense that any circuit for one of them can be transformed into a circuit for any of the others with only a polynomial increase in size. They are therefore all tractable for marginal inference on the same class of distributions. Finally, we explore the natural extension of one such polynomial semantics, called probabilistic generating circuits, to categorical random variables, and establish that marginal inference becomes #P-hard.

Inspired by Bayesian approaches to brain function in neuroscience, we give a simple theory of probabilistic inference for a unified account of reasoning and learning. We simply model how data cause symbolic knowledge in terms of its satisfiability in formal logic. The underlying idea is that reasoning is a process of deriving symbolic knowledge from data via abstraction, i.e., selective ignorance. The logical consequence relation is discussed for its proof-based theoretical correctness. The MNIST dataset is discussed for its experiment-based empirical correctness.

This study tackles the challenges of adversarial corruption in model-based reinforcement learning (RL), where the transition dynamics can be corrupted by an adversary. Existing studies on corruption-robust RL mostly focus on the setting of model-free RL, where robust least-square regression is often employed for value function estimation. However, these techniques cannot be directly applied to model-based RL. In this paper, we focus on model-based RL and take the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach to learn transition model. Our work encompasses both online and offline settings. In the online setting, we introduce an algorithm called corruption-robust optimistic MLE (CR-OMLE), which leverages total-variation (TV)-based information ratios as uncertainty weights for MLE. We prove that CR-OMLE achieves a regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T} + C)$, where $C$ denotes the cumulative corruption level after $T$ episodes. We also prove a lower bound to show that the additive dependence on $C$ is optimal. We extend our weighting technique to the offline setting, and propose an algorithm named corruption-robust pessimistic MLE (CR-PMLE). Under a uniform coverage condition, CR-PMLE exhibits suboptimality worsened by $\mathcal{O}(C/n)$, nearly matching the lower bound. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on corruption-robust model-based RL algorithms with provable guarantees.