Finance, especially option pricing, is a promising industrial field that might benefit from quantum computing. While quantum algorithms for option pricing have been proposed, it is desired to devise more efficient implementations of costly operations in the algorithms, one of which is preparing a quantum state that encodes a probability distribution of the underlying asset price. In particular, in pricing a path-dependent option, we need to generate a state encoding a joint distribution of the underlying asset price at multiple time points, which is more demanding. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach using Matrix Product State (MPS) as a generative model for time series generation. To validate our approach, taking the Heston model as a target, we conduct numerical experiments to generate time series in the model. Our findings demonstrate the capability of the MPS model to generate paths in the Heston model, highlighting its potential for path-dependent option pricing on quantum computers.

Conventional causal discovery methods rely on centralized data, which is inconsistent with the decentralized nature of data in many real-world situations. This discrepancy has motivated the development of federated causal discovery (FCD) approaches. However, existing FCD methods may be limited by their potentially restrictive assumptions of identifiable functional causal models or homogeneous data distributions, narrowing their applicability in diverse scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel FCD method attempting to accommodate arbitrary causal models and heterogeneous data. We first utilize a surrogate variable corresponding to the client index to account for the data heterogeneity across different clients. We then develop a federated conditional independence test (FCIT) for causal skeleton discovery and establish a federated independent change principle (FICP) to determine causal directions. These approaches involve constructing summary statistics as a proxy of the raw data to protect data privacy. Owing to the nonparametric properties, FCIT and FICP make no assumption about particular functional forms, thereby facilitating the handling of arbitrary causal models. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets to show the efficacy of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/lokali/FedCDH.git.

Particle filters are a frequent choice for inference tasks in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. They can either be used for state inference by approximating the filtering distribution or for parameter inference by approximating the marginal data (observation) likelihood. A good proposal distribution and a good resampling scheme are crucial to obtain low variance estimates. However, traditional methods like multinomial resampling introduce nondifferentiability in PF-based loss functions for parameter estimation, prohibiting gradient-based learning tasks. This work proposes a differentiable resampling scheme by deterministic sampling from an empirical cumulative distribution function. We evaluate our method on parameter inference tasks and proposal learning.

We introduce a modified incremental learning algorithm for evolving Granular Neural Network Classifiers (eGNN-C+). We use double-boundary hyper-boxes to represent granules, and customize the adaptation procedures to enhance the robustness of outer boxes for data coverage and noise suppression, while ensuring that inner boxes remain flexible to capture drifts. The classifier evolves from scratch, incorporates new classes on the fly, and performs local incremental feature weighting. As an application, we focus on the classification of emotion-related patterns within electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. Emotion recognition is crucial for enhancing the realism and interactivity of computer systems. We extract features from the Fourier spectrum of EEG signals obtained from 28 individuals engaged in playing computer games -- a public dataset. Each game elicits a different predominant emotion: boredom, calmness, horror, or joy. We analyze individual electrodes, time window lengths, and frequency bands to assess the accuracy and interpretability of resulting user-independent neural models. The findings indicate that both brain hemispheres assist classification, especially electrodes on the temporal (T8) and parietal (P7) areas, alongside contributions from frontal and occipital electrodes. While patterns may manifest in any band, the Alpha (8-13Hz), Delta (1-4Hz), and Theta (4-8Hz) bands, in this order, exhibited higher correspondence with the emotion classes. The eGNN-C+ demonstrates effectiveness in learning EEG data. It achieves an accuracy of 81.7% and a 0.0029 II interpretability using 10-second time windows, even in face of a highly-stochastic time-varying 4-class classification problem.

Designing molecules with desirable properties, such as drug-likeliness and high binding affinities towards protein targets, is a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose the Dual-Space Optimization (DSO) method that integrates latent space sampling and data space selection to solve this problem. DSO iteratively updates a latent space generative model and a synthetic dataset in an optimization process that gradually shifts the generative model and the synthetic data towards regions of desired property values. Our generative model takes the form of a Latent Prompt Transformer (LPT) where the latent vector serves as the prompt of a causal transformer. Our extensive experiments demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed method, which sets new performance benchmarks across single-objective, multi-objective and constrained molecule design tasks.

Typical models of learning assume incremental estimation of continuously-varying decision variables like expected rewards. However, this class of models fails to capture more idiosyncratic, discrete heuristics and strategies that people and animals appear to exhibit. Despite recent advances in strategy discovery using tools like recurrent networks that generalize the classic models, the resulting strategies are often onerous to interpret, making connections to cognition difficult to establish. We use Bayesian program induction to discover strategies implemented by programs, letting the simplicity of strategies trade off against their effectiveness. Focusing on bandit tasks, we find strategies that are difficult or unexpected with classical incremental learning, like asymmetric learning from rewarded and unrewarded trials, adaptive horizon-dependent random exploration, and discrete state switching.

We characterise the likelihood function computed from a Bayesian network with latent variables as root nodes. We show that the marginal distribution over the remaining, manifest, variables also factorises as a Bayesian network, which we call empirical. A dataset of observations of the manifest variables allows us to quantify the parameters of the empirical Bayesian net. We prove that (i) the likelihood of such a dataset from the original Bayesian network is dominated by the global maximum of the likelihood from the empirical one; and that (ii) such a maximum is attained if and only if the parameters of the Bayesian network are consistent with those of the empirical model.

Data assimilation (DA) methods use priors arising from differential equations to robustly interpolate and extrapolate data. Popular techniques such as ensemble methods that handle high-dimensional, nonlinear PDE priors focus mostly on state estimation, however can have difficulty learning the parameters accurately. On the other hand, machine learning based approaches can naturally learn the state and parameters, but their applicability can be limited, or produce uncertainties that are hard to interpret. Inspired by the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method in spatial statistics, we propose an alternative approach to DA based on iteratively linearising the dynamical model. This produces a Gaussian Markov random field at each iteration, enabling one to use INLA to infer the state and parameters. Our approach can be used for arbitrary nonlinear systems, while retaining interpretability, and is furthermore demonstrated to outperform existing methods on the DA task. By providing a more nuanced approach to handling nonlinear PDE priors, our methodology offers improved accuracy and robustness in predictions, especially where data sparsity is prevalent.

Noise-contrastive estimation (NCE) is a popular method for estimating unnormalised probabilistic models, such as energy-based models, which are effective for modelling complex data distributions. Unlike classical maximum likelihood (ML) estimation that relies on importance sampling (resulting in ML-IS) or MCMC (resulting in contrastive divergence, CD), NCE uses a proxy criterion to avoid the need for evaluating an often intractable normalisation constant. Despite apparent conceptual differences, we show that two NCE criteria, ranking NCE (RNCE) and conditional NCE (CNCE), can be viewed as ML estimation methods. Specifically, RNCE is equivalent to ML estimation combined with conditional importance sampling, and both RNCE and CNCE are special cases of CD. These findings bridge the gap between the two method classes and allow us to apply techniques from the ML-IS and CD literature to NCE, offering several advantageous extensions.

Imaging is the process of transforming noisy, incomplete data into a space that humans can interpret. NIFTy is a Bayesian framework for imaging and has already successfully been applied to many fields in astrophysics. Previous design decisions held the performance and the development of methods in NIFTy back. We present a rewrite of NIFTy, coined NIFTy.re, which reworks the modeling principle, extends the inference strategies, and outsources much of the heavy lifting to JAX. The rewrite dramatically accelerates models written in NIFTy, lays the foundation for new types of inference machineries, improves maintainability, and enables interoperability between NIFTy and the JAX machine learning ecosystem.