To improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo estimation, practitioners are turning to biased Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures that trade off asymptotic exactness for computational speed. The reasoning is sound: a reduction in variance due to more rapid sampling can outweigh the bias introduced. However, the inexactness creates new challenges for sampler and parameter selection, since standard measures of sample quality like effective sample size do not account for asymptotic bias. To address these challenges, we introduce a new computable quality measure based on Stein's method that bounds the discrepancy between sample and target expectations over a large class of test functions. We use our tool to compare exact, biased, and deterministic sample sequences and illustrate applications to hyperparameter selection, convergence rate assessment, and quantifying bias-variance tradeoffs in posterior inference.

Authorship Verification (AV) is the process of analyzing a set of documents to determine whether they were written by a specific author. This problem often arises in forensic scenarios, e.g., in cases where the documents in question constitute evidence for a crime. Existing state-of-the-art AV methods use computational solutions that are not supported by a plausible scientific explanation for their functioning and that are often difficult for analysts to interpret. To address this, we propose a method relying on calculating a quantity we call $\lambda_G$ (LambdaG): the ratio between the likelihood of a document given a model of the Grammar for the candidate author and the likelihood of the same document given a model of the Grammar for a reference population. These Grammar Models are estimated using $n$-gram language models that are trained solely on grammatical features. Despite not needing large amounts of data for training, LambdaG still outperforms other established AV methods with higher computational complexity, including a fine-tuned Siamese Transformer network. Our empirical evaluation based on four baseline methods applied to twelve datasets shows that LambdaG leads to better results in terms of both accuracy and AUC in eleven cases and in all twelve cases if considering only topic-agnostic methods. The algorithm is also highly robust to important variations in the genre of the reference population in many cross-genre comparisons. In addition to these properties, we demonstrate how LambdaG is easier to interpret than the current state-of-the-art. We argue that the advantage of LambdaG over other methods is due to fact that it is compatible with Cognitive Linguistic theories of language processing.

Fault tree analysis is a vital method of assessing safety risks. It helps to identify potential causes of accidents, assess their likelihood and severity, and suggest preventive measures. Quantitative analysis of fault trees is often done via the dependability metrics that compute the system's failure behaviour over time. However, the lack of precise data is a major obstacle to quantitative analysis, and so to reliability analysis. Fuzzy logic is a popular framework for dealing with ambiguous values and has applications in many domains. A number of fuzzy approaches have been proposed to fault tree analysis, but -- to the best of our knowledge -- none of them provide rigorous definitions or algorithms for computing fuzzy unreliability values. In this paper, we define a rigorous framework for fuzzy unreliability values. In addition, we provide a bottom-up algorithm to efficiently calculate fuzzy reliability for a system. The algorithm incorporates the concept of $\alpha$-cuts method. That is, performing binary algebraic operations on intervals on horizontally discretised $\alpha$-cut representations of fuzzy numbers. The method preserves the nonlinearity of fuzzy unreliability. Finally, we illustrate the results obtained from two case studies.

The ability to construct concise scene representations from sensor input is central to the field of robotics. This paper addresses the problem of robustly creating a 3D representation of a tabletop scene from a segmented RGB-D image. These representations are then critical for a range of downstream manipulation tasks. Many previous attempts to tackle this problem do not capture accurate uncertainty, which is required to subsequently produce safe motion plans. In this paper, we cast the representation of 3D tabletop scenes as a multi-class classification problem. To tackle this, we introduce V-PRISM, a framework and method for robustly creating probabilistic 3D segmentation maps of tabletop scenes. Our maps contain both occupancy estimates, segmentation information, and principled uncertainty measures. We evaluate the robustness of our method in (1) procedurally generated scenes using open-source object datasets, and (2) real-world tabletop data collected from a depth camera. Our experiments show that our approach outperforms alternative continuous reconstruction approaches that do not explicitly reason about objects in a multi-class formulation.

Inference for Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) consists of learning two models: (1) a generative model, which transforms a simple distribution over a latent space into the distribution over observed data, and (2) an inference model, which approximates the posterior of the latent codes given data. The two components are learned jointly via a lower bound to the generative model's log marginal likelihood. In early phases of joint training, the inference model poorly approximates the latent code posteriors. Recent work showed that this leads optimization to get stuck in local optima, negatively impacting the learned generative model. As such, recent work suggests ensuring a high-quality inference model via iterative training: maximizing the objective function relative to the inference model before every update to the generative model. Unfortunately, iterative training is inefficient, requiring heuristic criteria for reverting from iterative to joint training for speed. Here, we suggest an inference method that trains the generative and inference models independently. It approximates the posterior of the true model a priori; fixing this posterior approximation, we then maximize the lower bound relative to only the generative model. By conventional wisdom, this approach should rely on the true prior and likelihood of the true model to approximate its posterior (which are unknown). However, we show that we can compute a deterministic, model-agnostic posterior approximation (MAPA) of the true model's posterior. We then use MAPA to develop a proof-of-concept inference method. We present preliminary results on low-dimensional synthetic data that (1) MAPA captures the trend of the true posterior, and (2) our MAPA-based inference performs better density estimation with less computation than baselines. Lastly, we present a roadmap for scaling the MAPA-based inference method to high-dimensional data.

Both learning and inference tasks on Bayesian networks are NP-hard in general. Bounded tree-width Bayesian networks have recently received a lot of attention as a way to circumvent this complexity issue; however, while inference on bounded tree-width networks is tractable, the learning problem remains NP-hard even for tree-width 2. In this paper, we propose bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks as an alternative to bounded tree-width networks. In particular, we show that both inference and learning can be done in polynomial time for any fixed vertex cover number bound k, in contrast to the general and bounded tree-width cases; on the other hand, we also show that learning problem is W[1]-hard in parameter k. Furthermore, we give an alternative way to learn bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks using integer linear programming (ILP), and show this is feasible in practice.

In recent years, approaches based on machine learning have achieved state-of-theart performance on image restoration problems. Successful approaches include both generative models of natural images as well as discriminative training of deep neural networks. Discriminative training of feed forward architectures allows explicit control over the computational cost of performing restoration and therefore often leads to better performance at the same cost at run time. In contrast, generative models have the advantage that they can be trained once and then adapted to any image restoration task by a simple use of Bayes' rule. In this paper we show how to combine the strengths of both approaches by training a discriminative, feed-forward architecture to predict the state of latent variables in a generative model of natural images. We apply this idea to the very successful Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) of natural images. We show that it is possible to achieve comparable performance as the original GMM but with two orders of magnitude improvement in run time while maintaining the advantage of generative models.

We develop parallel predictive entropy search (PPES), a novel algorithm for Bayesian optimization of expensive black-box objective functions. At each iteration, PPES aims to select a batch of points which will maximize the information gain about the global maximizer of the objective. Well known strategies exist for suggesting a single evaluation point based on previous observations, while far fewer are known for selecting batches of points to evaluate in parallel. The few batch selection schemes that have been studied all resort to greedy methods to compute an optimal batch. To the best of our knowledge, PPES is the first nongreedy batch Bayesian optimization strategy. We demonstrate the benefit of this approach in optimization performance on both synthetic and real world applications, including problems in machine learning, rocket science and robotics.

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which require conditioning on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze streams of data. It approximates a new type of distribution, the population posterior, which combines the notion of a population distribution of the data with Bayesian inference in a probabilistic model. We develop the population posterior for latent Dirichlet allocation and Dirichlet process mixtures. We study our method with several large-scale data sets.

Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly intertwined stochastic processes, information diffusion and network evolution, have been predominantly studied separately, ignoring their co-evolutionary dynamics. We propose a temporal point process model, COEVOLVE, for such joint dynamics, allowing the intensity of one process to be modulated by that of the other. This model allows us to efficiently simulate interleaved diffusion and network events, and generate traces obeying common diffusion and network patterns observed in real-world networks. Furthermore, we also develop a convex optimization framework to learn the parameters of the model from historical diffusion and network evolution traces. We experimented with both synthetic data and data gathered from Twitter, and show that our model provides a good fit to the data as well as more accurate predictions than alternatives.