This paper studies the directed graph clustering problem through the lens of statistics, where we formulate clustering as estimating underlying communities in the directed stochastic block model (DSBM). We conduct the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) on the DSBM and thereby ascertain the most probable community assignment given the observed graph structure. In addition to the statistical point of view, we further establish the equivalence between this MLE formulation and a novel flow optimization heuristic, which jointly considers two important directed graph statistics: edge density and edge orientation. Building on this new formulation of directed clustering, we introduce two efficient and interpretable directed clustering algorithms, a spectral clustering algorithm and a semidefinite programming based clustering algorithm. We provide a theoretical upper bound on the number of misclustered vertices of the spectral clustering algorithm using tools from matrix perturbation theory. We compare, both quantitatively and qualitatively, our proposed algorithms with existing directed clustering methods on both synthetic and real-world data, thus providing further ground to our theoretical contributions. Keywords: graph clustering, directed graphs, maximum likelihood estimation, spectral methods, matrix perturbation analysis, semidefinite programming. Authors are listed in alphabetical order. This is the corresponding author.

Tensor Networks (TNs) have recently been used to speed up kernel machines by constraining the model weights, yielding exponential computational and storage savings. In this paper we prove that the outputs of Canonical Polyadic Decomposition (CPD) and Tensor Train (TT)-constrained kernel machines recover a Gaussian Process (GP), which we fully characterize, when placing i.i.d. priors over their parameters. We analyze the convergence of both CPD and TT-constrained models, and show how TT yields models exhibiting more GP behavior compared to CPD, for the same number of model parameters. We empirically observe this behavior in two numerical experiments where we respectively analyze the convergence to the GP and the performance at prediction. We thereby establish a connection between TN-constrained kernel machines and GPs.

Bayesian modelling allows for the quantification of predictive uncertainty which is crucial in safety-critical applications. Yet for many machine learning (ML) algorithms, it is difficult to construct or implement their Bayesian counterpart. In this work we present a promising approach to address this challenge, based on the hypothesis that commonly used ML algorithms are efficient across a wide variety of tasks and may thus be near Bayes-optimal w.r.t. an unknown task distribution. We prove that it is possible to recover the Bayesian posterior defined by the task distribution, which is unknown but optimal in this setting, by building a martingale posterior using the algorithm. We further propose a practical uncertainty quantification method that apply to general ML algorithms. Experiments based on a variety of non-NN and NN algorithms demonstrate the efficacy of our method.

Industrial process optimization and control is crucial to increase economic and ecologic efficiency. However, data sovereignty, differing goals, or the required expert knowledge for implementation impede holistic implementation. Further, the increasing use of data-driven AI-methods in process models and industrial sensory often requires regular fine-tuning to accommodate distribution drifts. We propose the Artificial Neural Twin, which combines concepts from model predictive control, deep learning, and sensor networks to address these issues. Our approach introduces differentiable data fusion to estimate the state of distributed process steps and their dependence on input data. By treating the interconnected process steps as a quasi neural-network, we can backpropagate loss gradients for process optimization or model fine-tuning to process parameters or AI models respectively. The concept is demonstrated on a virtual machine park simulated in Unity, consisting of bulk material processes in plastic recycling.

University of Sussex, School of Engineering and Informatics, Chichester I, CI-128, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9RH, United Kingdom Acknowledgement This work was supported by a European Research Council Grant (XSCAPE) ERC-2020-SyG 951631 Abstract Legal autonomy -- the lawful activity of artificial intelligence agents -- can be achieved in one of two ways. It can be achieved either by imposing constraints on AI actors such as developers, deployers and users, and on AI resources such as data, or by imposing constraints on the range and scope of the impact that AI agents can have on the environment. The latter approach involves encoding extant rules concerning AI driven devices into the software of AI agents controlling those devices (e.g., encoding rules about limitations on zones of operations into the agent software of an autonomous drone device). This is a challenge since the effectivity of such an approach requires a method of extracting, loading, transforming and computing legal information that would be both explainable and legally interoperable, and that would enable AI agents to "reason" about the law. In this paper, we sketch a proof of principle for such a method using large language models (LLMs), expert legal systems known as legal decision paths, and Bayesian networks. We then show how the proposed method could be applied to extant regulation in matters of autonomous cars, such as the California Vehicle Code. Keywords Legal Reasoning; Large Language Models; Expert System; Bayesian Network; Explanability; Interoperability; Autonomous Vehicles 1. Two paths towards legal autonomy What does it mean to regulate artificial intelligence (AI), and how should we go about it? To answer this question, one must first be clear on what artificial intelligence is--at least, for the purposes of the law-- and then ask whether existing laws are sufficient for its regulation. This consensus is that the term "AI" refers to software (i) that is developed using computational techniques, (ii) that is able to make decisions that influence an environment, (iii) that is able to make such decisions autonomously, or partly autonomously, and (iv) that makes those decisions to align with a set of human defined objectives. In AI research, decision-making typically involves the ability to evaluate options, predict outcomes, and select an optimal or satisfactory course of action based on the data available and predefined objectives. This process is crucial in distinguishing AI systems from simple automated systems that operate based on a fixed set of rules without variation or learning ((Friedman & Frank, 1983; Gupta et al., 2022). Autonomy in AI is characterized by goal-oriented behaviour, where the system is not just reacting to inputs based on fixed rules but is actively pursuing objectives.

Decision trees are commonly used predictive models due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed at quantifying the uncertainty of decision tree predictions by employing a Bayesian inference approach. This is challenging because these approaches need to explore both the tree structure space and the space of decision parameters associated with each tree structure. This has been handled by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, where a Markov Chain is constructed to provide samples from the desired Bayesian estimate. Importantly, the structure and the decision parameters are tightly coupled; small changes in the tree structure can demand vastly different decision parameters to provide accurate predictions. A challenge for existing MCMC approaches is proposing joint changes in both the tree structure and the decision parameters that result in efficient sampling. This paper takes a different approach, where each distinct tree structure is associated with a unique set of decision parameters. The proposed approach, entitled DCC-Tree, is inspired by the work in Zhou et al. [23] for probabilistic programs and Cochrane et al. [4] for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) based sampling for decision trees. Results show that DCC-Tree performs comparably to other HMC-based methods and better than existing Bayesian tree methods while improving on consistency and reducing the per-proposal complexity.

Past decades have witnessed a great interest in the distinction and connection between neural network learning and kernel learning. Recent advancements have made theoretical progress in connecting infinite-wide neural networks and Gaussian processes. Two predominant approaches have emerged: the Neural Network Gaussian Process (NNGP) and the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK). The former, rooted in Bayesian inference, represents a zero-order kernel, while the latter, grounded in the tangent space of gradient descents, is a first-order kernel. In this paper, we present the Unified Neural Kernel (UNK), which characterizes the learning dynamics of neural networks with gradient descents and parameter initialization. The proposed UNK kernel maintains the limiting properties of both NNGP and NTK, exhibiting behaviors akin to NTK with a finite learning step and converging to NNGP as the learning step approaches infinity. Besides, we also theoretically characterize the uniform tightness and learning convergence of the UNK kernel, providing comprehensive insights into this unified kernel. Experimental results underscore the effectiveness of our proposed method.

The astonishing growth of generative tools in recent years has empowered many exciting applications in text-to-image generation and text-to-video generation. The underlying principle behind these generative tools is the concept of diffusion, a particular sampling mechanism that has overcome some shortcomings that were deemed difficult in the previous approaches. The goal of this tutorial is to discuss the essential ideas underlying the diffusion models. The target audience of this tutorial includes undergraduate and graduate students who are interested in doing research on diffusion models or applying these models to solve other problems.

Two firms are engaged in a competitive prediction task. Each firm has two sources of data -- labeled historical data and unlabeled inference-time data -- and uses the former to derive a prediction model, and the latter to make predictions on new instances. We study data-sharing contracts between the firms. The novelty of our study is to introduce and highlight the differences between contracts that share prediction models only, contracts to share inference-time predictions only, and contracts to share both. Our analysis proceeds on three levels. First, we develop a general Bayesian framework that facilitates our study. Second, we narrow our focus to two natural settings within this framework: (i) a setting in which the accuracy of each firm's prediction model is common knowledge, but the correlation between the respective models is unknown; and (ii) a setting in which two hypotheses exist regarding the optimal predictor, and one of the firms has a structural advantage in deducing it. Within these two settings we study optimal contract choice. More specifically, we find the individually rational and Pareto-optimal contracts for some notable cases, and describe specific settings where each of the different sharing contracts emerge as optimal. Finally, in the third level of our analysis we demonstrate the applicability of our concepts in a synthetic simulation using real loan data.

Pseudo log-likelihood is a type of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method used in various fields including contextual bandits, influence maximization of social networks, and causal bandits. However, in previous literature \citep{li2017provably, zhang2022online, xiong2022combinatorial, feng2023combinatorial1, feng2023combinatorial2}, the log-likelihood function may not be bounded, which may result in the algorithm they proposed not well-defined. In this paper, we give a counterexample that the maximum pseudo log-likelihood estimation fails and then provide a solution to correct the algorithms in \citep{li2017provably, zhang2022online, xiong2022combinatorial, feng2023combinatorial1, feng2023combinatorial2}.