We consider the problem of estimating probability density functions based on sample data, using a finite mixture of densities from some component class. To this end, we introduce the $h$-lifted Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence as a generalization of the standard KL divergence and a criterion for conducting risk minimization. Under a compact support assumption, we prove an $\mc{O}(1/{\sqrt{n}})$ bound on the expected estimation error when using the $h$-lifted KL divergence, which extends the results of Rakhlin et al. (2005, ESAIM: Probability and Statistics, Vol. 9) and Li and Barron (1999, Advances in Neural Information ProcessingSystems, Vol. 12) to permit the risk bounding of density functions that are not strictly positive. We develop a procedure for the computation of the corresponding maximum $h$-lifted likelihood estimators ($h$-MLLEs) using the Majorization-Maximization framework and provide experimental results in support of our theoretical bounds.

This research paper delves into the innovative integration of Shannon entropy and rough set theory, presenting a novel approach to generalize the evaluation approach in machine learning. The conventional application of entropy, primarily focused on information uncertainty, is extended through its combination with rough set theory to offer a deeper insight into data's intrinsic structure and the interpretability of machine learning models. We introduce a comprehensive framework that synergizes the granularity of rough set theory with the uncertainty quantification of Shannon entropy, applied across a spectrum of machine learning algorithms. Our methodology is rigorously tested on various datasets, showcasing its capability to not only assess predictive performance but also to illuminate the underlying data complexity and model robustness. The results underscore the utility of this integrated approach in enhancing the evaluation landscape of machine learning, offering a multi-faceted perspective that balances accuracy with a profound understanding of data attributes and model dynamics. This paper contributes a groundbreaking perspective to machine learning evaluation, proposing a method that encapsulates a holistic view of model performance, thereby facilitating more informed decision-making in model selection and application.

Control barrier functions (CBFs) have recently been introduced as a systematic tool to ensure safety by establishing set invariance. When combined with a control Lyapunov function (CLF), they form a safety-critical control mechanism. However, the effectiveness of CBFs and CLFs is closely tied to the system model. In practice, model uncertainty can jeopardize safety and stability guarantees and may lead to undesirable performance. In this paper, we develop a safe learning-based control strategy for switching systems in the face of uncertainty. We focus on the case that a nominal model is available for a true underlying switching system. This uncertainty results in piecewise residuals for each switching surface, impacting the CLF and CBF constraints. We introduce a batch multi-output Gaussian process (MOGP) framework to approximate these piecewise residuals, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of uncertainty. A particular structure of the covariance function enables us to convert the MOGP-based chance constraints CLF and CBF into second-order cone constraints, which leads to a convex optimization. We analyze the feasibility of the resulting optimization and provide the necessary and sufficient conditions for feasibility. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is validated through a simulation of a switching adaptive cruise control system.

Large language models primarily rely on inductive reasoning for decision making. This results in unreliable decisions when applied to real-world tasks that often present incomplete contexts and conditions. Thus, accurate probability estimation and appropriate interpretations are required to enhance decision-making reliability. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian inference framework called BIRD for large language models. BIRD provides controllable and interpretable probability estimation for model decisions, based on abductive factors, LLM entailment, as well as learnable deductive Bayesian modeling. Experiments show that BIRD produces probability estimations that align with human judgments over 65% of the time using open-sourced Llama models, outperforming the state-of-the-art GPT-4 by 35%. We also show that BIRD can be directly used for trustworthy decision making on many real-world applications.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we propose a novel algorithm for estimating parameters in one-dimensional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs). The algorithm takes advantage of the Hankel structure inherent in the Fourier data obtained from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) samples of the mixture. For GMMs with a unified variance, a singular value ratio functional using the Fourier data is introduced and used to resolve the variance and component number simultaneously. The consistency of the estimator is derived. Compared to classic algorithms such as the method of moments and the maximum likelihood method, the proposed algorithm does not require prior knowledge of the number of Gaussian components or good initial guesses. Numerical experiments demonstrate its superior performance in estimation accuracy and computational cost. Second, we reveal that there exists a fundamental limit to the problem of estimating the number of Gaussian components or model order in the mixture model if the number of i.i.d samples is finite. For the case of a single variance, we show that the model order can be successfully estimated only if the minimum separation distance between the component means exceeds a certain threshold value and can fail if below. We derive a lower bound for this threshold value, referred to as the computational resolution limit, in terms of the number of i.i.d samples, the variance, and the number of Gaussian components. Numerical experiments confirm this phase transition phenomenon in estimating the model order. Moreover, we demonstrate that our algorithm achieves better scores in likelihood, AIC, and BIC when compared to the EM algorithm.

We propose a novel method (floZ), based on normalizing flows, for estimating the Bayesian evidence (and its numerical uncertainty) from a set of samples drawn from the unnormalized posterior distribution. We validate it on distributions whose evidence is known analytically, up to 15 parameter space dimensions, and compare with two state-of-the-art techniques for estimating the evidence: nested sampling (which computes the evidence as its main target) and a k-nearest-neighbors technique that produces evidence estimates from posterior samples. Provided representative samples from the target posterior are available, our method is more robust to posterior distributions with sharp features, especially in higher dimensions. It has wide applicability, e.g., to estimate the evidence from variational inference, Markov-chain Monte Carlo samples, or any other method that delivers samples from the unnormalized posterior density.

Parallelisation in Bayesian optimisation is a common strategy but faces several challenges: the need for flexibility in acquisition functions and kernel choices, flexibility dealing with discrete and continuous variables simultaneously, model misspecification, and lastly fast massive parallelisation. To address these challenges, we introduce a versatile and modular framework for batch Bayesian optimisation via probabilistic lifting with kernel quadrature, called SOBER, which we present as a Python library based on GPyTorch/BoTorch. Our framework offers the following unique benefits: (1) Versatility in downstream tasks under a unified approach.

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty based on proper scoring rules, which are loss functions with the meaningful property that they incentivize the learner to predict ground-truth (conditional) probabilities. We assume two common representations of (epistemic) uncertainty, namely, in terms of a credal set, i.e. a set of probability distributions, or a second-order distribution, i.e., a distribution over probability distributions. Our framework establishes a natural bridge between these representations. We provide a formal justification of our approach and introduce new measures of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty as concrete instantiations.

We foresee robots that bootstrap knowledge representations and use them for classifying relevant situations and making decisions based on future observations. Particularly for assistive robots, the bootstrapping mechanism might be supervised by humans who should not repeat a training phase several times and should be able to refine the taught representation. We consider robots that bootstrap structured representations to classify some intelligible categories. Such a structure should be incrementally bootstrapped, i.e., without invalidating the identified category models when a new additional category is considered. To tackle this scenario, we presented the Scene Identification and Tagging (SIT) algorithm, which bootstraps structured knowledge representation in a crisp OWL-DL ontology. Over time, SIT bootstraps a graph representing scenes, sub-scenes and similar scenes. Then, SIT can classify new scenes within the bootstrapped graph through logic-based reasoning. However, SIT has issues with sensory data because its crisp implementation is not robust to perception noises. This paper presents a reformulation of SIT within the fuzzy domain, which exploits a fuzzy DL ontology to overcome the robustness issues. By comparing the performances of fuzzy and crisp implementations of SIT, we show that fuzzy SIT is robust, preserves the properties of its crisp formulation, and enhances the bootstrapped representations. On the contrary, the fuzzy implementation of SIT leads to less intelligible knowledge representations than the one bootstrapped in the crisp domain.

We propose a self-supervised learning approach for solving the following constrained optimization task in log-linear models or Markov networks. Let $f$ and $g$ be two log-linear models defined over the sets $\mathbf{X}$ and $\mathbf{Y}$ of random variables respectively. Given an assignment $\mathbf{x}$ to all variables in $\mathbf{X}$ (evidence) and a real number $q$, the constrained most-probable explanation (CMPE) task seeks to find an assignment $\mathbf{y}$ to all variables in $\mathbf{Y}$ such that $f(\mathbf{x}, \mathbf{y})$ is maximized and $g(\mathbf{x}, \mathbf{y})\leq q$. In our proposed self-supervised approach, given assignments $\mathbf{x}$ to $\mathbf{X}$ (data), we train a deep neural network that learns to output near-optimal solutions to the CMPE problem without requiring access to any pre-computed solutions. The key idea in our approach is to use first principles and approximate inference methods for CMPE to derive novel loss functions that seek to push infeasible solutions towards feasible ones and feasible solutions towards optimal ones. We analyze the properties of our proposed method and experimentally demonstrate its efficacy on several benchmark problems.