Uncertainty
Intrinsic Rewards for Exploration without Harm from Observational Noise: A Simulation Study Based on the Free Energy Principle
Tinker, Theodore Jerome, Doya, Kenji, Tani, Jun
In Reinforcement Learning (RL), artificial agents are trained to maximize numerical rewards by performing tasks. Exploration is essential in RL because agents must discover information before exploiting it. Two rewards encouraging efficient exploration are the entropy of action policy and curiosity for information gain. Entropy is well-established in literature, promoting randomized action selection. Curiosity is defined in a broad variety of ways in literature, promoting discovery of novel experiences. One example, prediction error curiosity, rewards agents for discovering observations they cannot accurately predict. However, such agents may be distracted by unpredictable observational noises known as curiosity traps. Based on the Free Energy Principle (FEP), this paper proposes hidden state curiosity, which rewards agents by the KL divergence between the predictive prior and posterior probabilities of latent variables. We trained six types of agents to navigate mazes: baseline agents without rewards for entropy or curiosity, and agents rewarded for entropy and/or either prediction error curiosity or hidden state curiosity. We find entropy and curiosity result in efficient exploration, especially both employed together. Notably, agents with hidden state curiosity demonstrate resilience against curiosity traps, which hinder agents with prediction error curiosity. This suggests implementing the FEP may enhance the robustness and generalization of RL models, potentially aligning the learning processes of artificial and biological agents.
Do Bayesian imaging methods report trustworthy probabilities?
Thong, David Y. W., Mbakam, Charlesquin Kemajou, Pereyra, Marcelo
Bayesian statistics is a cornerstone of imaging sciences, underpinning many and varied approaches from Markov random fields to score-based denoising diffusion models. In addition to powerful image estimation methods, the Bayesian paradigm also provides a framework for uncertainty quantification and for using image data as quantitative evidence. These probabilistic capabilities are important for the rigorous interpretation of experimental results and for robust interfacing of quantitative imaging pipelines with scientific and decision-making processes. However, are the probabilities delivered by existing Bayesian imaging methods meaningful under replication of an experiment, or are they only meaningful as subjective measures of belief? This paper presents a Monte Carlo method to explore this question. We then leverage the proposed Monte Carlo method and run a large experiment requiring 1,000 GPU-hours to probe the accuracy of five canonical Bayesian imaging methods that are representative of some of the main Bayesian imaging strategies from the past decades (a score-based denoising diffusion technique, a plug-and-play Langevin algorithm utilising a Lipschitz-regularised DnCNN denoiser, a Bayesian method with a dictionary-based prior trained subject to a log-concavity constraint, an empirical Bayesian method with a total-variation prior, and a hierarchical Bayesian Gibbs sampler based on a Gaussian Markov random field model). We find that, a few cases, the probabilities reported by modern Bayesian imaging techniques are in broad agreement with long-term averages as observed over a large number of replication of an experiment, but existing Bayesian imaging methods are generally not able to deliver reliable uncertainty quantification results.
Machine Unlearning: A Comprehensive Survey
Wang, Weiqi, Tian, Zhiyi, Yu, Shui
As the right to be forgotten has been legislated worldwide, many studies attempt to design unlearning mechanisms to protect users' privacy when they want to leave machine learning service platforms. Specifically, machine unlearning is to make a trained model to remove the contribution of an erased subset of the training dataset. This survey aims to systematically classify a wide range of machine unlearning and discuss their differences, connections and open problems. We categorize current unlearning methods into four scenarios: centralized unlearning, distributed and irregular data unlearning, unlearning verification, and privacy and security issues in unlearning. Since centralized unlearning is the primary domain, we use two parts to introduce: firstly, we classify centralized unlearning into exact unlearning and approximate unlearning; secondly, we offer a detailed introduction to the techniques of these methods. Besides the centralized unlearning, we notice some studies about distributed and irregular data unlearning and introduce federated unlearning and graph unlearning as the two representative directions. After introducing unlearning methods, we review studies about unlearning verification. Moreover, we consider the privacy and security issues essential in machine unlearning and organize the latest related literature. Finally, we discuss the challenges of various unlearning scenarios and address the potential research directions.
On Discovery of Local Independence over Continuous Variables via Neural Contextual Decomposition
Hwang, Inwoo, Kwak, Yunhyeok, Song, Yeon-Ji, Zhang, Byoung-Tak, Lee, Sanghack
Conditional independence provides a way to understand causal relationships among the variables of interest. An underlying system may exhibit more fine-grained causal relationships especially between a variable and its parents, which will be called the local independence relationships. One of the most widely studied local relationships is Context-Specific Independence (CSI), which holds in a specific assignment of conditioned variables. However, its applicability is often limited since it does not allow continuous variables: data conditioned to the specific value of a continuous variable contains few instances, if not none, making it infeasible to test independence. In this work, we define and characterize the local independence relationship that holds in a specific set of joint assignments of parental variables, which we call context-set specific independence (CSSI). We then provide a canonical representation of CSSI and prove its fundamental properties. Based on our theoretical findings, we cast the problem of discovering multiple CSSI relationships in a system as finding a partition of the joint outcome space. Finally, we propose a novel method, coined neural contextual decomposition (NCD), which learns such partition by imposing each set to induce CSSI via modeling a conditional distribution. We empirically demonstrate that the proposed method successfully discovers the ground truth local independence relationships in both synthetic dataset and complex system reflecting the real-world physical dynamics.
Adaptive Online Bayesian Estimation of Frequency Distributions with Local Differential Privacy
We propose a novel Bayesian approach for the adaptive and online estimation of the frequency distribution of a finite number of categories under the local differential privacy (LDP) framework. The proposed algorithm performs Bayesian parameter estimation via posterior sampling and adapts the randomization mechanism for LDP based on the obtained posterior samples. We propose a randomized mechanism for LDP which uses a subset of categories as an input and whose performance depends on the selected subset and the true frequency distribution. By using the posterior sample as an estimate of the frequency distribution, the algorithm performs a computationally tractable subset selection step to maximize the utility of the privatized response of the next user. We propose several utility functions related to well-known information metrics, such as (but not limited to) Fisher information matrix, total variation distance, and information entropy. We compare each of these utility metrics in terms of their computational complexity. We employ stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics for posterior sampling, a computationally efficient approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We provide a theoretical analysis showing that (i) the posterior distribution targeted by the algorithm converges to the true parameter even for approximate posterior sampling, and (ii) the algorithm selects the optimal subset with high probability if posterior sampling is performed exactly. We also provide numerical results that empirically demonstrate the estimation accuracy of our algorithm where we compare it with nonadaptive and semi-adaptive approaches under experimental settings with various combinations of privacy parameters and population distribution parameters.
ISR: Invertible Symbolic Regression
Tohme, Tony, Khojasteh, Mohammad Javad, Sadr, Mohsen, Meyer, Florian, Youcef-Toumi, Kamal
We introduce an Invertible Symbolic Regression (ISR) method. It is a machine learning technique that generates analytical relationships between inputs and outputs of a given dataset via invertible maps (or architectures). The proposed ISR method naturally combines the principles of Invertible Neural Networks (INNs) and Equation Learner (EQL), a neural network-based symbolic architecture for function learning. In particular, we transform the affine coupling blocks of INNs into a symbolic framework, resulting in an end-to-end differentiable symbolic invertible architecture that allows for efficient gradient-based learning. The proposed ISR framework also relies on sparsity promoting regularization, allowing the discovery of concise and interpretable invertible expressions. We show that ISR can serve as a (symbolic) normalizing flow for density estimation tasks. Furthermore, we highlight its practical applicability in solving inverse problems, including a benchmark inverse kinematics problem, and notably, a geoacoustic inversion problem in oceanography aimed at inferring posterior distributions of underlying seabed parameters from acoustic signals.
Time Evidence Fusion Network: Multi-source View in Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
Zhan, Tianxiang, He, Yuanpeng, Li, Zhen, Deng, Yong
In real-world scenarios, time series forecasting often demands timeliness, making research on model backbones a perennially hot topic. To meet these performance demands, we propose a novel backbone from the perspective of information fusion. Introducing the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) Module and the Time Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN), based on evidence theory, allows us to achieve superior performance. On the other hand, the perspective of multi-source information fusion effectively improves the accuracy of forecasting. Due to the fact that BPA is generated by fuzzy theory, TEFN also has considerable interpretability. In real data experiments, the TEFN partially achieved state-of-the-art, with low errors comparable to PatchTST, and operating efficiency surpass performance models such as Dlinear. Meanwhile, TEFN has high robustness and small error fluctuations in the random hyperparameter selection. TEFN is not a model that achieves the ultimate in single aspect, but a model that balances performance, accuracy, stability, and interpretability.
Uncertainty-aware Semantic Mapping in Off-road Environments with Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence
Semantic mapping with Bayesian Kernel Inference (BKI) has shown promise in providing a richer understanding of environments by effectively leveraging local spatial information. However, existing methods face challenges in constructing accurate semantic maps or reliable uncertainty maps in perceptually challenging environments due to unreliable semantic predictions. To address this issue, we propose an evidential semantic mapping framework, which integrates the evidential reasoning of Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) into the entire mapping pipeline by adopting Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) and Dempster's rule of combination. Additionally, the extended belief is devised to incorporate local spatial information based on their uncertainty during the mapping process. Comprehensive experiments across various off-road datasets demonstrate that our framework enhances the reliability of uncertainty maps, consistently outperforming existing methods in scenes with high perceptual uncertainties while showing semantic accuracy comparable to the best-performing semantic mapping techniques.
An Investigation into the Performances of the State-of-the-art Machine Learning Approaches for Various Cyber-attack Detection: A Survey
Ige, Tosin, Kiekintveld, Christopher, Piplai, Aritran
In this research, we analyzed the suitability of each of the current state-of-the-art machine learning models for various cyberattack detection from the past 5 years with a major emphasis on the most recent works for comparative study to identify the knowledge gap where work is still needed to be done with regard to detection of each category of cyberattack. We also reviewed the suitability, effeciency and limitations of recent research on state-of-the-art classifiers and novel frameworks in the detection of differnet cyberattacks. Our result shows the need for; further research and exploration on machine learning approach for the detection of drive-by download attacks, an investigation into the mix performance of Naive Bayes to identify possible research direction on improvement to existing state-of-the-art Naive Bayes classifier, we also identify that current machine learning approach to the detection of SQLi attack cannot detect an already compromised database with SQLi attack signifying another possible future research direction.
Bayesian Prediction-Powered Inference
Hofer, R. Alex, Maynez, Joshua, Dhingra, Bhuwan, Fisch, Adam, Globerson, Amir, Cohen, William W.
Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a method that improves statistical estimates based on limited human-labeled data. Specifically, PPI methods provide tighter confidence intervals by combining small amounts of human-labeled data with larger amounts of data labeled by a reasonably accurate, but potentially biased, automatic system. We propose a framework for PPI based on Bayesian inference that allows researchers to develop new task-appropriate PPI methods easily. Exploiting the ease with which we can design new metrics, we propose improved PPI methods for several importantcases, such as autoraters that give discrete responses (e.g., prompted LLM ``judges'') and autoraters with scores that have a non-linear relationship to human scores.