Uncertainty
Uncertainty Management in the Construction of Knowledge Graphs: a Survey
Jarnac, Lucas, Chabot, Yoan, Couceiro, Miguel
Knowledge Graphs (KGs) are a major asset for companies thanks to their great flexibility in data representation and their numerous applications, e.g., vocabulary sharing, Q/A or recommendation systems. To build a KG it is a common practice to rely on automatic methods for extracting knowledge from various heterogeneous sources. But in a noisy and uncertain world, knowledge may not be reliable and conflicts between data sources may occur. Integrating unreliable data would directly impact the use of the KG, therefore such conflicts must be resolved. This could be done manually by selecting the best data to integrate. This first approach is highly accurate, but costly and time-consuming. That is why recent efforts focus on automatic approaches, which represents a challenging task since it requires handling the uncertainty of extracted knowledge throughout its integration into the KG. We survey state-of-the-art approaches in this direction and present constructions of both open and enterprise KGs and how their quality is maintained. We then describe different knowledge extraction methods, introducing additional uncertainty. We also discuss downstream tasks after knowledge acquisition, including KG completion using embedding models, knowledge alignment, and knowledge fusion in order to address the problem of knowledge uncertainty in KG construction. We conclude with a discussion on the remaining challenges and perspectives when constructing a KG taking into account uncertainty.
Reinforcement Learning Based Escape Route Generation in Low Visibility Environments
Structure fires are responsible for the majority of fire-related deaths nationwide. In order to assist with the rapid evacuation of trapped people, this paper proposes the use of a system that determines optimal search paths for firefighters and exit paths for civilians in real time based on environmental measurements. Through the use of a LiDAR mapping system evaluated and verified by a trust range derived from sonar and smoke concentration data, a proposed solution to low visibility mapping is tested. These independent point clouds are then used to create distinct maps, which are merged through the use of a RANSAC based alignment methodology and simplified into a visibility graph. Temperature and humidity data are then used to label each node with a danger score, creating an environment tensor. After demonstrating how a Linear Function Approximation based Natural Policy Gradient RL methodology outperforms more complex competitors with respect to robustness and speed, this paper outlines two systems (savior and refugee) that process the environment tensor to create safe rescue and escape routes, respectively.
ClavaDDPM: Multi-relational Data Synthesis with Cluster-guided Diffusion Models
Pang, Wei, Shafieinejad, Masoumeh, Liu, Lucy, He, Xi
Recent research in tabular data synthesis has focused on single tables, whereas real-world applications often involve complex data with tens or hundreds of interconnected tables. Previous approaches to synthesizing multi-relational (multi-table) data fall short in two key aspects: scalability for larger datasets and capturing long-range dependencies, such as correlations between attributes spread across different tables. Inspired by the success of diffusion models in tabular data modeling, we introduce $\textbf{C}luster$ $\textbf{La}tent$ $\textbf{Va}riable$ $guided$ $\textbf{D}enoising$ $\textbf{D}iffusion$ $\textbf{P}robabilistic$ $\textbf{M}odels$ (ClavaDDPM). This novel approach leverages clustering labels as intermediaries to model relationships between tables, specifically focusing on foreign key constraints. ClavaDDPM leverages the robust generation capabilities of diffusion models while incorporating efficient algorithms to propagate the learned latent variables across tables. This enables ClavaDDPM to capture long-range dependencies effectively. Extensive evaluations on multi-table datasets of varying sizes show that ClavaDDPM significantly outperforms existing methods for these long-range dependencies while remaining competitive on utility metrics for single-table data.
Provably Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Multinomial Logit Function Approximation
Li, Long-Fei, Zhang, Yu-Jie, Zhao, Peng, Zhou, Zhi-Hua
We study a new class of MDPs that employs multinomial logit (MNL) function approximation to ensure valid probability distributions over the state space. Despite its benefits, introducing non-linear function approximation raises significant challenges in both computational and statistical efficiency. The best-known method of Hwang and Oh [2023] has achieved an $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\kappa^{-1}dH^2\sqrt{K})$ regret, where $\kappa$ is a problem-dependent quantity, $d$ is the feature space dimension, $H$ is the episode length, and $K$ is the number of episodes. While this result attains the same rate in $K$ as the linear cases, the method requires storing all historical data and suffers from an $\mathcal{O}(K)$ computation cost per episode. Moreover, the quantity $\kappa$ can be exponentially small, leading to a significant gap for the regret compared to the linear cases. In this work, we first address the computational concerns by proposing an online algorithm that achieves the same regret with only $\mathcal{O}(1)$ computation cost. Then, we design two algorithms that leverage local information to enhance statistical efficiency. They not only maintain an $\mathcal{O}(1)$ computation cost per episode but achieve improved regrets of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\kappa^{-1/2}dH^2\sqrt{K})$ and $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(dH^2\sqrt{K} + \kappa^{-1}d^2H^2)$ respectively. Finally, we establish a lower bound, justifying the optimality of our results in $d$ and $K$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that achieves almost the same computational and statistical efficiency as linear function approximation while employing non-linear function approximation for reinforcement learning.
Multiple-policy Evaluation via Density Estimation
Chen, Yilei, Pacchiano, Aldo, Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch.
We study the multiple-policy evaluation problem where we are given a set of $K$ policies and the goal is to evaluate their performance (expected total reward over a fixed horizon) to an accuracy $\epsilon$ with probability at least $1-\delta$. We propose an algorithm named $\mathrm{CAESAR}$ for this problem. Our approach is based on computing an approximate optimal offline sampling distribution and using the data sampled from it to perform the simultaneous estimation of the policy values. $\mathrm{CAESAR}$ has two phases. In the first we produce coarse estimates of the visitation distributions of the target policies at a low order sample complexity rate that scales with $\tilde{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon})$. In the second phase, we approximate the optimal offline sampling distribution and compute the importance weighting ratios for all target policies by minimizing a step-wise quadratic loss function inspired by the DualDICE \cite{nachum2019dualdice} objective. Up to low order and logarithmic terms $\mathrm{CAESAR}$ achieves a sample complexity $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{H^4}{\epsilon^2}\sum_{h=1}^H\max_{k\in[K]}\sum_{s,a}\frac{(d_h^{\pi^k}(s,a))^2}{\mu^*_h(s,a)}\right)$, where $d^{\pi}$ is the visitation distribution of policy $\pi$, $\mu^*$ is the optimal sampling distribution, and $H$ is the horizon.
Linear Function Approximation as a Computationally Efficient Method to Solve Classical Reinforcement Learning Challenges
Neural Network based approximations of the Value function make up the core of leading Policy Based methods such as Trust Regional Policy Optimization (TRPO) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). While this adds significant value when dealing with very complex environments, we note that in sufficiently low State and action space environments, a computationally expensive Neural Network architecture offers marginal improvement over simpler Value approximation methods. We present an implementation of Natural Actor Critic algorithms with actor updates through Natural Policy Gradient methods. This paper proposes that Natural Policy Gradient (NPG) methods with Linear Function Approximation as a paradigm for value approximation may surpass the performance and speed of Neural Network based models such as TRPO and PPO within these environments. Over Reinforcement Learning benchmarks Cart Pole and Acrobot, we observe that our algorithm trains much faster than complex neural network architectures, and obtains an equivalent or greater result. This allows us to recommend the use of NPG methods with Linear Function Approximation over TRPO and PPO for both traditional and sparse reward low dimensional problems.
Gaussian Embedding of Temporal Networks
Romero, Raphaël, Lijffijt, Jefrey, Rastelli, Riccardo, Corneli, Marco, De Bie, Tijl
Representing the nodes of continuous-time temporal graphs in a low-dimensional latent space has wide-ranging applications, from prediction to visualization. Yet, analyzing continuous-time relational data with timestamped interactions introduces unique challenges due to its sparsity. Merely embedding nodes as trajectories in the latent space overlooks this sparsity, emphasizing the need to quantify uncertainty around the latent positions. In this paper, we propose TGNE (\textbf{T}emporal \textbf{G}aussian \textbf{N}etwork \textbf{E}mbedding), an innovative method that bridges two distinct strands of literature: the statistical analysis of networks via Latent Space Models (LSM)\cite{Hoff2002} and temporal graph machine learning. TGNE embeds nodes as piece-wise linear trajectories of Gaussian distributions in the latent space, capturing both structural information and uncertainty around the trajectories. We evaluate TGNE's effectiveness in reconstructing the original graph and modelling uncertainty. The results demonstrate that TGNE generates competitive time-varying embedding locations compared to common baselines for reconstructing unobserved edge interactions based on observed edges. Furthermore, the uncertainty estimates align with the time-varying degree distribution in the network, providing valuable insights into the temporal dynamics of the graph. To facilitate reproducibility, we provide an open-source implementation of TGNE at \url{https://github.com/aida-ugent/tgne}.
Probabilistic Verification of Neural Networks using Branch and Bound
Boetius, David, Leue, Stefan, Sutter, Tobias
Probabilistic verification of neural networks is concerned with formally analysing the output distribution of a neural network under a probability distribution of the inputs. Examples of probabilistic verification include verifying the demographic parity fairness notion or quantifying the safety of a neural network. We present a new algorithm for the probabilistic verification of neural networks based on an algorithm for computing and iteratively refining lower and upper bounds on probabilities over the outputs of a neural network. By applying state-of-the-art bound propagation and branch and bound techniques from non-probabilistic neural network verification, our algorithm significantly outpaces existing probabilistic verification algorithms, reducing solving times for various benchmarks from the literature from tens of minutes to tens of seconds. Furthermore, our algorithm compares favourably even to dedicated algorithms for restricted subsets of probabilistic verification. We complement our empirical evaluation with a theoretical analysis, proving that our algorithm is sound and, under mildly restrictive conditions, also complete when using a suitable set of heuristics.
Bayesian RG Flow in Neural Network Field Theories
Howard, Jessica N., Klinger, Marc S., Maiti, Anindita, Stapleton, Alexander G.
The Neural Network Field Theory correspondence (NNFT) is a mapping from neural network (NN) architectures into the space of statistical field theories (SFTs). The Bayesian renormalization group (BRG) is an information-theoretic coarse graining scheme that generalizes the principles of the Exact Renormalization Group (ERG) to arbitrarily parameterized probability distributions, including those of NNs. In BRG, coarse graining is performed in parameter space with respect to an information-theoretic distinguishability scale set by the Fisher information metric. In this paper, we unify NNFT and BRG to form a powerful new framework for exploring the space of NNs and SFTs, which we coin BRG-NNFT. With BRG-NNFT, NN training dynamics can be interpreted as inducing a flow in the space of SFTs from the information-theoretic `IR' $\rightarrow$ `UV'. Conversely, applying an information-shell coarse graining to the trained network's parameters induces a flow in the space of SFTs from the information-theoretic `UV' $\rightarrow$ `IR'. When the information-theoretic cutoff scale coincides with a standard momentum scale, BRG is equivalent to ERG. We demonstrate the BRG-NNFT correspondence on two analytically tractable examples. First, we construct BRG flows for trained, infinite-width NNs, of arbitrary depth, with generic activation functions. As a special case, we then restrict to architectures with a single infinitely-wide layer, scalar outputs, and generalized cos-net activations. In this case, we show that BRG coarse-graining corresponds exactly to the momentum-shell ERG flow of a free scalar SFT. Our analytic results are corroborated by a numerical experiment in which an ensemble of asymptotically wide NNs are trained and subsequently renormalized using an information-shell BRG scheme.